Understanding the US - Again

[drnayar]

After Beijing, the World Looks Different - By Prof Robert Pape

Posting this article from Prof Robert Pape's substack with conclusions similar to what KL Dubey ji posted in his post above. It is worth spending a few minutes to read it and digest its conclusions. Posting his final conclusion below for the benefit of interested readers.

If you found this analysis useful, please consider sharing it with others trying to understand how the Iran war is reshaping not only the Middle East, but the future balance of global great power politics itself.

I am worried about how China will view this new order wrt to its designs to undermine India to become numero Uno in Asia and the world. Will it become more aggressive or encourage its lapdogs to become aggressive?

Both. America and China are opportunistic. As long as Indians keep their sanity and invest in stable governance , both will keep their distance. India with each passing day , is a power too big to ignore, too big to fight against directly [ and indirectly as well ! .. i am impressed how the cockroach party has been dealt with behind the scenes ] .. and the only power in the world that can go toe to toe with them., it may not win but it will drag the other down !

[A_Gupta]

Me, I just want a deal that puts India back on track.

I am not sure what "deal" you are referring to, and why India "needs a deal" to be "back on track".

India’s economy is negatively impacted by the war.

Quote(AI summary, but you can put together the picture yourself too)

The macroeconomic impact of the war involving Iran on the Indian economy acts primarily as a severe supply-side shock transmitted through energy markets, trade bottlenecks, and labor disruptions. Because India relies on imports for roughly 85% to 90% of its crude oil and a significant portion of its natural gas, the disruption of regional shipping routes—particularly the Strait of Hormuz—has triggered substantial inflationary pressures and a widening current account deficit. Estimates indicate that a prolonged conflict keeping oil prices elevated could pare India's GDP growth by 0.5 to 1.5 percentage points.

Furthermore, the macro-shocks are compounding across several domestic and external sectors:

Currency and Capital Flight: Increased dollar demand to cover costlier oil imports, coupled with foreign investors fleeing emerging markets, has depreciated the Indian rupee to record lows. This weakens import purchasing power and worsens imported inflation.

Trade and Manufacturing Costs: Skyrocketing maritime insurance premiums and freight costs—caused by vessels bypassing blockades and rerouting around Africa—have squeezed margins for key Indian export sectors like textiles, leather, and handicrafts. Industrial sectors like steelmaking are simultaneously facing localized production cuts due to liquefied natural gas (LNG) shortages.

Labor and Remittances Strain: The economic slowdown in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region has choked off a vital employment engine for millions of Indian blue-collar expatriates. This has led to a deceleration in recruitment and a notable drop in inbound foreign remittances, adding further structural strain to India's domestic job market and foreign exchange reserves.

[Kanoji]

Both. America and China are opportunistic. As long as Indians keep their sanity and invest in stable governance , both will keep their distance. India with each passing day , is a power too big to ignore, too big to fight against directly [ and indirectly as well ! .. i am impressed how the cockroach party has been dealt with behind the scenes ] .. and the only power in the world that can go toe to toe with them., it may not win but it will drag the other down !

Thank you drnayar ji. Could I request you yo post links on the underlined part above?

[A_Gupta]

Just one statistic: India’s wholesale manufacturing prices increased 4.62% year-on-year in April 2026, accelerating from a 3.39% rise in March, and marking the fastest growth since September 2022.

Unlike the UPA which did growth for growth’s sake, Modi sarkar’s policy is to provide macroeconomic stability and let growth come as it may. This is what is at risk.

To put it another way, PM Modi made an "austerity" speech. That was serious.

[Cyrano]

What a rant! A lot of it is justified.

[drnayar]

Both. America and China are opportunistic. As long as Indians keep their sanity and invest in stable governance , both will keep their distance. India with each passing day , is a power too big to ignore, too big to fight against directly [ and indirectly as well ! .. i am impressed how the cockroach party has been dealt with behind the scenes ] .. and the only power in the world that can go toe to toe with them., it may not win but it will drag the other down !

Thank you drnayar ji. Could I request you yo post links on the underlined part above?

there is no one post ., just take it fwiw for now. X has some posts where cockroach websites have been taken down , their social media accounts now propped up by paki handles etc. Will post as soon as some more news come out in open source.

[KL Dubey]

India’s economy is negatively impacted by the war.

That wasn't the question I asked. The question was what "deal" are you referring to, and why does India need this "deal". There are no "deals" on the table, it is all complete BS. There is nonstop talk about "deals" since January 2025, but none of these "deals" mean anything and there is no documentation to support any of them. Hoping for anything concrete from any of these fake-ass "deals" is foolhardy. As mentioned in other posts above, Bharat should continue on its path (most notably renewables deployment), with additional oil supplies short term, austerity measures as needed, etc. And Bharat continues to ink proper and tangible agreements with other countries, not "deals".

PS: I would also say that the word "deal" should be banned from Indian diplomatic/international trade parlance. Anyone coming with the word "deal" in any document or message should be summarily rejected. Acceptable words should be enquiry, proposal, negotiation, documentation, and agreement. IOW, "Deal" with your shyte before showing up at Bharat's door.

[Vayutuvan]

What a rant! A lot of it is justified.

[youtube...]j9MubNsh3rs[/youtube]

British? Pot kettle black AKA guruvedna ginja

[Vayutuvan]

PS: I would also say that the word "deal" should be banned from Indian diplomatic/international trade parlance. ...

MoU should also be banned. If it is not enforceable, then it is not a legal contract with contractual obligations and a redressal mechanism in case the contract is broken.

MoU is BS weasel phrase. Indian babus love it as much as the Amrus love the word "Deal".

[A_Gupta]

The question was what "deal" are you referring to, and why does India need this "deal". There are no "deals" on the table, it is all complete BS. There is nonstop talk about "deals" since January 2025, but none of these "deals" mean anything and there is no documentation to support any of them.

This is what I wrote. (Below, emphasis added). I thought it was obvious that “deal” referred to any kind of US-Iran agreement that brought back normal operations to the Gulf. Since the war began at the end of February 2026 (or June 2025) I don’t understand what you mean by January 2025, unless it was a trade agreement between India and the US.

Trista Parsi of the Quincy Institute said that the way you can know that the US is actually close to a deal with Iran is that the war hawks in the US will start criticizing the deal and/or Trump.

Sure enough, Senator Ted Cruz is criticizing the proposed deal. Lindsay Graham also is a war hawk, but he is also incapable of being critical of anything Trump does.

—-
Me, I just want a deal that puts India back on track. Trump can have a Nobel Prize a year for all I care.

You then began as below, and I thought, since the deal I was talking about was obviously a US-Iran deal, that you might be under the impression that India being able to obtain petroleum meant that all was well. But it is not, it just means no shortages. That oil is coming in at a much higher price, widening India’s current account deficit. The government is eating that cost to spare the Indian consumer, and that is putting a strain on its finances. If the US-Iran stand-off continues for another few months, the Indian economy will reach a bad place.

Helium, urea, natural gas are also an issue. If the GCC economies contract (Qatar at 8%, Dubai 7%, UAE overall 4.8%), the Indian workers there are going to earn less, and there will be pressure on remittances. If I am spelling out the obvious, it is because I was mistaken that in my previous post it was obvious the “deal” referred to a US-Iran deal.

I am not sure what "deal" you are referring to, and why India "needs a deal" to be "back on track".

- Russian oil (regardless of any US sanctions/waivers) and Venezuelan oil are flowing to India. In fact the latter was one of our largest oil suppliers until Trump first-term sanctions. Reliance built its refineries to be able to refine heavy sour Venezuelan crude. GCC and Iran oil flows will resume and prices will resume a downward trend for a while.…

[A_Gupta]

The Times of Israel reports:
Trump links Abraham Accords to Iran deal, says joining should be ‘mandatory’ for 6 Muslim nations, tells Saudis and Qataris to go first

US President Donald Trump ties the emerging Iran deal with the Abraham Accords normalization agreements with Israel and says joining it should be “mandatory” for six Muslim nations, telling Saudi Arabia and Qatar to sign up first.
...
He specifies those countries as Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt, and Jordan, and also lists the UAE and Bahrain while noting they are already members.

[KL Dubey]

The question was what "deal" are you referring to, and why does India need this "deal". There are no "deals" on the table, it is all complete BS. There is nonstop talk about "deals" since January 2025, but none of these "deals" mean anything and there is no documentation to support any of them.

This is what I wrote. (Below, emphasis added). I thought it was obvious that “deal” referred to any kind of US-Iran agreement that brought back normal operations to the Gulf. Since the war began at the end of February 2026 (or June 2025) I don’t understand what you mean by January 2025, unless it was a trade agreement between India and the US.

[/quote]

OK, I get that. But there is no such "deal". Like I said, after 1.5 years of this "deal" drama, putting any stock in such thing is a waste of time.

I've mentioned multiple times Bharat sarkar has seen through the "deal" tamasha and instead focused on strengthening Bharat without any "dealbaazi".

Dealwale dulhaniya nahi le jaayenge...bas shehnai bajaate rah jaayenge.

[A_Gupta]

^^^ India has zero to do with any US-Iran deal that results in a cessation of hostilities and a resumption of commerce in the GCC states; but India will benefit from it. Even it is for 30 days or 60 days or otherwise temporary. It will be a relief to India's current account and government deficit, to inflation and to the foreign exchange situation. I don't see what any dealbazi or dulhaniya or shehnai has to do with it, or why trust or lack thereof comes into the picture. But OK, whatever.

[uddu]

Those countries that were linked to the U.S by the hip are derisking and doing Multialignment.
EU and Mexico seal trade deal to reduce reliance on US | DW News
Facing pressure from Donald Trump’s tariffs, the European Union and Mexico are turning to each other. A newly finalized trade pact aims to cut barriers and boost investment—but also signals a broader effort to reduce reliance on the United States. The deal reflects shifting global alliances, though Mexico must tread carefully as it renegotiates its crucial trade relationship with Washington.

Chapters:
0:00 EU and Mexico finally finalize trade deal
2:48 Irene Banos Ruiz, Journalist
3:57 How important is deal for both markets?
5:33 The deal's anti-Trump aspects
7:50 When does the deal start?

[uddu]

https://x.com/i/status/2058927256052117814
@Chopsyturvey
Hilarious

[uddu]

Those foolish Indian's who think the U.S is ranked above India in Press Freedom don't understand U.S properly. Common man cannot utter a word against the establishment.
Woman arrested after Facebook post over water concerns


The kind of craziness happening in the U.S is unparalled anywhere in the world
Detective Realizes He’s Interrogating The Victim

[A_Gupta]

“The world is bigger than the US. Hard to believe, but it’s true” - OM

[g.sarkar]

https://www.rediff.com/news/report/u-tu ... 260530.htm
US makes U-turn on 'return to home country' order for green cards
Hemant Waje, May 30, 2026
The US has clarified that not all immigrants seeking green cards will be required to return to their home country to make such applications.
The statement from the US Department of Homeland Security (DHS) on Friday appeared to be a partial walk-back on the announcement by the US Citizenship and Immigration Services stating the individuals seeking permanent residency would have to return to their home countries to await their green cards.
DHS Clarifies Discretionary Authority
"This was just a reminder to officers of their discretionary authority, which has always existed on a case-by-case basis," a DHS spokesperson said in a statement to The New York Times.
The DHS said the USCIS memo of May 22 was not a blanket change and that it would be up to individual immigration officers to decide whether someone should be forced to go abroad to gain a green card.
The spokesperson pointed to people who overstay visas or come from countries whose citizens are heavy users of public assistance as groups that could be affected.
Despite the assurances, immigration lawyers have been counselling a wait and watch approach to see how the changes actually unfold as fewer details were immediately available.
Though announced with a news release, a senior White House official said this week that the effort was meant to be a housekeeping matter, not a change of strategy, the New York Times reported.
Green Card Statistics and Impact
About 14 lakh green cards were granted in 2024, with more than 8.2 lakh approved for people inside the country through a process called "adjustment of status", according to Department of Homeland Security data.
Over the past two decades, more than 500,000 people have received green cards via adjustment of status each year, except for in 2020 during the Covid-19 pandemic.
According to estimates, over 30,000 Indian H1B visa holders become due for green cards every year.
Despite the assurances, immigration lawyers have been counselling a wait and watch approach to see how the changes actually unfold.
.....
Gautam

[Tanaji]

https://www.news4jax.com/news/politics/ ... endations/

President Donald Trump on Friday gave his endorsement to a January study by the Department of Health and Human Services that calls for cutting the number of vaccines recommended for every American child.

I think the time is soon on hand where countries should start restricting US citizens based on vaccinations received. They can believe whatever brain rot they want. We absolutely do not need these diseases in our countries.

[sanjaykumar]

This is an area which has had deliberate attenuation of public discourse. As far as I can tell.

Tragically in 2025, there were two deaths in Canada of babies born to mothers whose X’anity beliefs prevented vaccination against measles.

It is easy to dismiss this as self selecting out of the gene pool or Jesus’ will. But this is a serious issue. And tragic.

I fear there will be cases of the immunised contracting measles from some of these pious people and suffering adverse sequelae


It might lead to social disruption. Most of the unvaccinated are from Christian communities such as the Mennonites.


So next time we mock Muslims for refusing polio vaccine, let us pause to understand what is going on here.

[chetak]

This is an area which has had deliberate attenuation of public discourse. As far as I can tell.

Tragically in 2025, there were two deaths in Canada of babies born to mothers whose X’anity beliefs prevented vaccination against measles.

It is easy to dismiss this as self selecting out of the gene pool or Jesus’ will. But this is a serious issue. And tragic.

I fear there will be cases of the immunised contracting measles from some of these pious people and suffering adverse sequelae


It might lead to social disruption. Most of the unvaccinated are from Christian communities such as the Mennonites.


So next time we mock Muslims for refusing polio vaccine, let us pause to understand what is going on here.

sanjaykumar ji,


the beedis have a serious outbreak of measles that is currently ongoing, because that punk youanus changed both the sourcing and maybe also schedule for the measles vaccine

these contrived and manipulated nobel piss prizes don't always hit the target as intended, because you have scum like youanus who manage to slip through the cracks and mess up a whole country by fiddling with things that they know nothing about

this will have economic and social repercussions, especially when applying for visas to gora countries countries

India seems blissfully unconcerned by the risk and danger lurking across the beedi border, because the indiscriminate granting of Indian visas to the beedis can literally blow up in our faces with a local outbreak of measles sourced from these jihadi Atithi Devo Bhavas

[Cyrano]

PS: I would also say that the word "deal" should be banned from Indian diplomatic/international trade parlance. ...

MoU should also be banned. If it is not enforceable, then it is not a legal contract with contractual obligations and a redressal mechanism in case the contract is broken.

MoU is BS weasel phrase. Indian babus love it as much as the Amrus love the word "Deal".

Suvarna Kapi has made even signed contracts worthless. One can only hope the next US and other western govts don't use it as precedent to ditch contractual obligations when it doesn't suit them. For ex India EU trade 'deal'. The damage done by SK to "rules based order" is immense and long lasting.

Going forward, India must not be content that some international deal has been signed. Rather treat it as a starting point to create and keep creating a set of dependencies for and leverages on the other party so that the deal continually delivers the expected results for India, throughout its term.

Smart companies do it all the time, it's called Contract Management.

The commerce ministry needs to grow 10x in the coming years to deal with this new trust but verify modus vivendi.

[Cyrano]

[S_Madhukar]

Is the US stock market now same as the CCP stock market ? Should RoW invest in US or backoff ?

https://x.com/Hedgeye/status/2060435253928604065

Rule changes for the SpaceX $SPCX IPO:
Index providers waived the profitability requirement and cut the seasoning window from 90 days to 5.
This forces over $30 trillion in passive 401k and retirement money to buy SpaceX at IPO valuations.
Bloomberg Intelligence estimates S&P 500 funds must absorb 19% of SpaceX's float within 6 months.
Russell 1000 and Nasdaq 100 funds will absorb 24%.
The rules built to protect passive investors:
1. S&P 500 has required 12 months of trading and 4 quarters of GAAP profitability since 2002. Both waived.
2. Nasdaq cut its inclusion window from 90 trading days to 15.
3. FTSE Russell cut its to 5.
All three benchmarks are now structured to buy SpaceX at IPO pricing

[drnayar]

MoU should also be banned. If it is not enforceable, then it is not a legal contract with contractual obligations and a redressal mechanism in case the contract is broken.

MoU is BS weasel phrase. Indian babus love it as much as the Amrus love the word "Deal".

Suvarna Kapi has made even signed contracts worthless. One can only hope the next US and other western govts don't use it as precedent to ditch contractual obligations when it doesn't suit them. For ex India EU trade 'deal'. The damage done by SK to "rules based order" is immense and long lasting.

Going forward, India must not be content that some international deal has been signed. Rather treat it as a starting point to create and keep creating a set of dependencies for and leverages on the other party so that the deal continually delivers the expected results for India, throughout its term.

Smart companies do it all the time, it's called Contract Management.

The commerce ministry needs to grow 10x in the coming years to deal with this new trust but verify modus vivendi.

trust but verify , monitoring should be part of any deal , anything outside should make any deal void

[A_Gupta]

Thanks to Trump/ Elon Musk/ DOGE/ RFK Jr. cuts, the US public health preparedness for something like Ebola is decimated. CDC = Center for Disease Control.

The CDC sent an “urgent request” for volunteers across job types and pay grades to help screen passengers arriving from Central Africa. This includes public health advisers, emergency management specialists, and licensed medical providers.

These requests follow significant staff cuts, with the CDC’s workforce reportedly reduced by nearly 30% since last year, directly impacting its capacity to staff airport screening operations.

[g.sarkar]

https://www.rediff.com/news/column/trum ... 260601.htm
Trump-Xi Engagement Raises India's Concerns
T P SREENIVASAN, June 01, 2026
President Donald Trump was not his usual arrogant and abrasive self when he visited China on May 13 to 15, 2026.
He was on a mission to improve his image before the mid time polls in November by seeking a vision of constructive China-US strategic stability, to highlight the might of American industry and to secure as many orders as possible for beef, beans and Boeings.
He tried to ingratiate Xi Jinping by praising him to the skies, though the latter was more restrained in complimenting Trump.
A concept had developed in 2000 of a 'G2' by which the US and China, who were more or less equal in power and influence would get close enough to work together for peace, stability and global development.
But the idea was not championed by either side because the anxiety around the world about a condominium of the two nations dominating the world.
President Trump referred to it casually in South Korea before his meeting with Xi, but it was not mentioned in his conversation with the Chinese president.
Perhaps, since President Trump had his own expanding agenda including the Panama Canal, Greenland, Canada, Venezuela, Iran and Cuba, there was no question of a consensus between G2.
He preferred to act according to his own whims and fancies without discussing his plans even with his own advisers. Vice President J D Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio were more their master's voices than his advisers.
Another reason for the neglect of G2 was that Trump initially had plans to get close to Russian President Vladimir Putin to confront China. His quest for a Nobel Prize also had to be a solitary effort.
He had not yet discovered the potential of Pakistan as a mediator. No wonder, therefore, most of his objectives had no role for a tie up with China.
Setbacks push Trump toward China
Trump's visit to China in May 2026 was prompted by a change of his priorities on account of his failure to accomplish most of his missions in the world.
The Panama Canal was too much in China's grip to annex it. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney had no desire to become the governor of the 51st state of the United States.
Prime Minister Carney wanted to unite the 'Middle Powers' against economic integration with the US and wanted strategic autonomy not only in politics but also in economic relations.
A war with Denmark for Greenland would have meant taking on his NATO allies.
President Trump claimed that he had obliterated Iran's nuclear capability by bombing reactors deep under the ground, but Iran appeared to be right in its claim that they did not lose much in the bombing and Trump decided that some reactors over ground like the Natanz nuclear facility, which were subject to inspection by the International Atomic Energy Agency were also a threat.
Moreover, removing uranium enriched beyond safe levels stored in Iran had to be removed out of Iran.
......
Gautam