Update from Orbat!
0230 December 30, 2008
Correction: India mulling offer of 120,000 troops for Afghanistan Thanks to some quick work by Bill Roggio and Mandeep Singh Bajwa we were able to avoid getting a big smack on our news story yesterday. India has not offered US troops, but is working on a proposal to make an offer, to the new Administration. We got the military details because the military was quick off the mark with a response.
So today you should have the details of the formations etc. India is earmarking - in case the proposal is made and accepted.
Nonetheless, when planning goes as far as to identify specific units, a force commander, and matters such as the battle-training schools will be set up, you have to see this is completely serious from India's view.
Warning on "Bombay 2, 3, 4" A source from Kabul warns Orbat.com that other Bombay-like attacks are coming and that certain sections of the Pakistani military are determined to push India-Pakistan to war.
Speculation on next Pakistani move on withdrawn troops We hear rumors that Pakistan will offer to return troops to the NWFP if the US pressures India to change the status quo on Kashmir more to Pakistan's liking.
We've heard of Red Herrings and can with authority say this is a Dead Red Herring. There is absolutely no chance India will compromise on Pakistan, unless Pakistan is thinking of allowing free elections in its part of the disputed state. India has just completed elections in the state for the umpteenth time, the turnout at 61% was higher than ever before and this was possibly the fairest election ever held there. This despite a boycott by the pro-secession parties.
Now before the usual western suspects start talking about this was not a free election, can we ask a question: would the US permit Washington and Oregon states to hold an election on secession? The day that happens, okay, you can come back and say the Kashmir election was not fair. Then you can explain to the Indians why they should allow a vote on secession of the whole state when except for the districts (counties) that make up the Valley, no one else wants to secede. So really this is akin to 40% of Washington/Oregon's counties they want to secede, but all of the two states will have to accept the verdict because these 40% hold a majority of the population.
Further, India has defeated the Pakistan-based insurgency.
The Indians wouldn't negotiate anything even if they were losing the war, and they have won this phase, so what is there to talk about?
Israel and Hamas There is something in the Israeli consciousness that approaches psychopathy when the Israelis know perfectly well they cannot force Hamas or its successors from continuing to attack Israel anymore than could stop Hamas' predecessors, but they still keep thrashing the Palestinians.
Please understand we do not object to hard Israeli action. If they simply came out and said "we won, you lost" as winners have done since recorded history began and likely before, and if they expelled the losers, Orbat.com for one would not be happy, but we'd say: "The Israelis did what they had to do. The strong inherit the earth..." - at least that's our understanding of the Old Testament, and Judaism does not recognize the New Testament with its meek and meeker business.
Sure, the Egyptians and the Jordanians wouldn't accept the expellees, so go and grab enough of the Sinai and Jordan to send the refugees there.
Okay, so the world will hate you, but does any Israeli really Feel The Love that is gushing from the rest of the world on their repression?
Its this business of crippling the cripple who lands a blow with his crutch because you made him a cripple to begin with that is bothering us. If you don't have the guts to kill the animal you wounded and keep shooting him everywhere except on his head, to "persuade" him to leave you alone, there's something wrong with you, not with the animal.
Moreover, what's this business of we're willing to make peace but we're going keep grabbing territory from you, and we're going to tell how you're going to live your life, and then expect the Palestinians to accept it? Any fool knows there can be no peace between the Israelis and the Palestinians. You've kicked the man put of his house, but let him set up in your back garden and you expect him to accept it and leave you alone?
Come on folks, its time to grow up.