Lalmohan wrote:Where is the Slovenia equivalent - is it Baluchistan? with Iran playing the part of Germany? Is swat the analogue of croatia? who else has fingers in this pie? real fingers
As things stand, Iran cannot play the part of Germany. They have their own problem with the Baluchis, and they know, that other powers, aka, the Americans are more than keen to exploit those fissures. Any Baluchi independence from Pakistan will be a red rag for the Iranians.
Baluchi unrest in Pakistan has a destabilizing effect on Iranian Baluchistan as well. At the moment, all powers can exploit this Iranian weakness. Every Sunni fascist wants Shia Iran wiped off the map, far more than Ahmedinejad ever meant w.r.t. Israel. So pressure can be built by the Saudis, by Al Qaida, by Americans, by the British, etc. etc. Once the Chinese get Gwadar, even they could build up pressure on Iran to decrease the strategic value of its ports. So basically Baluchestan is one of the 6 Achilles heels of Iran, these being: Kurdish Kordestan, Arab Shia Khuzestan, Baluchi Baluchestan, Mujahideen-e Khalq Organisation, Pahlavi Monarchists & disenchanted liberal youth.
They can however be motivated to accept that, under a different premise. Baluchistan does not go for Independence, but rather for integration in the Indian Union. Baluchistan was a part of British India, and can again become a part of Independent India. Would Iran however want to share borders with a major country like India?
So what is on the table for Iran. In general, should India and Iran share borders, the Baluchi independence drive could be cooled in a similar way it has happened with Kurdistan. Kurdistan is split between Turkey, Iraq, Syria and Iran, as such there is hardly any hope for the Kurds to break free from Iran. Similarly Iran would want Baluchistan (portion under Pakistan now) to stay captive in a bigger federation. It does not matter whether it is Pakistan or India. But Pakistan already does that. What can India give the Iranians more than what they get on this issue?
One of the major reasons, why Iran would be afraid of taking down the Sunni 'power' to its east, is exactly because it too fears, that on the one hand the Baluchis in Pakistani Baluchistan would become free, giving the independence aspirations of Iranian Baluchis a shot in the arm, or that what would replace Pakistan would be an even bigger Sunni Talibanic/Al Qaida monster.
So if one wants to assuage Iran's fears on this score, one would have to give an alternate plan.
1. Basically it is the same plan that Indian idealists want to offer Pakistan - make LoC irrelevant, free flow of goods and people, etc. etc. India can offer Iran the same thing - free flow of goods and people across the 'Indo-Iranian' border, between the two Baluchistans.
2. Moreover there are far bigger chances, that India could quench Baluchi desire of independence, by treating the Baluchis with far more respect than Pakistanis ever gave them, by sharing with the Baluchis the fruits of prosperity. If the Pakistani Baluchis calm down within the Indian Union, the chances that the Iranian Baluchis too would calm down are far greater.
3. A far bigger market for Iranian gas and oil and other goods.
4. A stable border manned by the Indian BSF.
5. No interference would be allowed from the Americans.
6. The danger from some Sunni insurgency in Baluchistan would rapidly decrease. Taliban and Al Qaida and Jundollah will not be using Baluchistani territory or any other territory in India against Iran.
Only if we get Iran onboard on the break-up of Pakistan, would the chances be good that Pakistan does ultimately break-up, and India can create some other sort of a regional order there.
All this is a lot of convincing India would have to do, for Iran to accept the plan. But as of now, Iran will not play the role of Germany, but Baluchistan does have the potential to be the 'Slovenia'. If the Pakistani Army remains bogged down by the Pushtuns, the Taliban, then Baluchistan can be taken without Pakjab being able to do much about it. There are of course many other factors which decide on the feasibility of such a move.
Lalmohan wrote:what will cause the dominant player (Unkil) to say - ok, let it go.
When the costs outweigh the benefits, the threat outweighs optimism, and chaos causes thinktank overflow, then they will let it go.
Lalmohan wrote:What role will dragon play in 'stay' or 'go'?
A dominant player, a stabilizing factor, be it the Pakjabi Army or the Taliban even, is favorable to the Chinese, as they can hire any faction, which can deliver the goods. But what if no faction can do it, and those who can deliever, are either mighty pissed off at China or are aligned with India? An insurgency both on the Karakoram Highway and Gwadar takes away all economic benefits from China. A Pakistan busy only in cutting at each other, takes away all strategic benefits from China too, as these assets cannot be used against India. If Chinese involvement in Pakistan only leads to one or the other faction getting pissed off at China, and these factions start kidnapping Chinese workers and technicians as happened a couple of years ago, then the Chinese may rethink about continuing their cooperation with Pakjabi Army.
India just needs to keep on chipping off at Pakistani groups and their loyalties away from Pakistan.
Lalmohan wrote:If the dissolution is inevitable, who will back whom? Will pakjab end up like Serbia?
Pakjab is basically India's buffer/sink/helmet against all Sunni violence in Central Asia. All extreme Sunni violence should and would fall upon the Pakjabis, because they will be the ones who will be punished if Al Qaida's plot for the region goes wrong. Actually they will be punished even if it goes right! Also they are the ones who will have to face the tribal barbarians on the other side of the Indus.
So after India has hammered Pakjab long enough to form it into the right size and right quality helmet, then we will also have to take care of it, that it doesn't break. So unlike Serbia, who nobody needs, Pakjab can rest assured that India has great plans for it.
JMTs
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