INS Arihant (ATV) News and Discussion -2

[Singha]

reports on web claim our current stockpile as 100-200.

sounds enough if we can target the 20 largest cities in PRC with 3 warheads each. wont annihilate the whole country but we dont have enough warhead material for that even if we can arrange the missiles?

[aditp]

PC,

I think that is the normal process.

Cutting into the sub is not a big deal. At the end of its life they have to cut it open and replace the mal and reseal.

Didnt we have DDM reports around 1.5 yrs back, of the reactor having been transported from BARC to Vizag and the same functioning satisfactorily besides the hull? 1.5 yrs should be sufficient for mating the reactor to the sub. Moreover, the interview of Dr. Kakodkar has a functional reactor inside a full scale sub mockup (nuke compartment).

Moreover none of our defence projects have been broken to the media in full before they achieved atleast the very elementary milestones (yes propulsion is very basic onlee). That too with the PM launching it. with the roosi amby in attendance (along with 100+ of his engineers)

dna report = SDRE DDM onree
----------------------------------------------------
Maybe dna wasnt invited to the launch function

[shiv]

My uncle (God rest his soul) told me that only the top half of the shell of Arihant is complete. They floated it on barges to make it look like there is a whole sealed hull underneath. In a typical Indian fit of dharma they did not reserve the function for independence day because of the dependence we have on the Russians.

[munna]

My uncle (God rest his soul) told me that only the top half of the shell of Arihant is complete. They floated it on barges to make it look like there is a whole sealed hull underneath. In a typical Indian fit of dharma they did not reserve the function for independence day because of the dependence we have on the Russians.

It is the advanced version of "A Hat without Head" horror show being shown to the world.

[Arun_S]

not a great thinker but my number:

3x arihant with 12 k-15 each (moved to brahmos when A3SL) = 36
60x Agni2AT/Agni2 on rails - 60
20x Agni-I - 20
3x arihant A3SL 4xMIRV(3) = 3 x 4 x 3 = 36
no klubs with nuke warheads

60 + 72 + 20 = 152 + 30 air delivered bombs = 182 + 50 spares = 232

what do you think? too low ?

Limiting myself to Naval fleet:
1. 5 Arihants x four A-3SL x each with 6 warheads (1: 1 ratio of FBF and TN); 120 (60 FBF + 60 TN)
2. 5 Boomers coming after Arihant x each with 12 of K-15 and 8 of A-3SL ( each with 6 warheads in 1: 1 ratio of FBF and TN) = 60 FBF + 240 (120 FBF + 120 TN)
3. Diesel Submarines: ~50 BrahMos + ~ 50 Klubs ; = 100 FBF
4. Surface ships : ~50 BrahMos / K-15 ; = 50 FBF
--------------------------------------------------------------
Sub-Total: 390 FBF + 120 TN

Add to above reserve of 50% and on top of that 30% of warheads be on inspection/maintenance ( I.e. 95% of deployed warheads)

= 760 FBF + 234 TN.
== Cost of peace.

[Singha]

but 5 arihant + 5 boomers are minimum 20-25 years away...if we keep producing maybe we will reach that number.

[Arun_S]

You are right, in 10 years fewer SSBN will be depolyed.
IMHO fifth Arihant will be out in 4-7 years. And I think at least the first boomer should be in 9 years from now.

[Gagan]

The thing is that India would want the submarine to complete its harbour trials and various trials before the Nuclear reactor is powered on. This makes sense.
The submarine as a platform needs testing because this is a pioneering design, which is completely untested. Once the sub completes its trials on a diesel engine, the submarine platform is validated, it is a matter of turning on the nuclear reactor by charging the rods into it.
Then I think there will be a final set of trials with the reactor in place.

[Prem Kumar]

When we do the nuclear arsenal count, we should also include those delivered by cruise missiles (hopefully Nirbhay will be operational in a 10 year timeframe). We should aim for at least 100 nuclear tipped CMs (combination of land, sea and air delivered). They are cheaper than BMs and are difficult to counter via ABM.

[hnair]

As I had pointed out earlier, their cities fall below million population mark only from the 40th biggest onwards. Infact panda's craze for tall and erect buildings clustered tightly together (even in Tier III cities) is downright idiotic from a strategic viewpoint. You dont need heavy duty 400kt rice-balls to knock such "nearly western" downtowns. Unkil realized that fact a longtime back (during Eisenhower times) and build freeways to let his cities sprawl, instead of the more cost-effective and lower environmental footprint of high-rises. But panda is panda and his ambitions are always low for an ancient civilization - "Be like the khan" without going into the details of why khan does things a certain way. That is fine with us.

One of the main consideration when dealing with PLA is their image with their own people. Despite dual-chrome posters showing the cheeks of herrowic soldiers, there are massive symbols of oppressive planning. Three Gorges is one that made a lot of people unhappy. Headquarters of PAP is another. Ultimately we need to start speaking to their people directly or else during peace time, they will never know the damage we can inflict. And during bad times, they will never know what they lost.

[MN Kumar]

As per Lifefist the following is the Official cutaway of Arihant released by DAE.

[Gerard]

FWIW the UK's deterrent is 4 subs, each sub carrying 16 missiles with each missile carrying 3 W76 100kt warheads.
That comes up to 64 missiles and 192 warheads needed (plus spares).

Yet the UK doesn't have 64 missiles. They've only leased 58 from the US. Some have been used in test firings. The warhead stockpile is estimated at 160.

This reflects the patrol pattern: one sub is always on patrol, two are in port and one is undergoing maintenance. They only produce warheads for the three boats capable of going to sea: 16x3x3= 144. Add another 10% for spares and total is 160.

With three Arihants, only warheads for two are needed (one in maintenance) = 24. With five of her class, you double this to 48. Add another 6 for spares.

Plus the numbers needed for nuclear armed cruise missiles on subs and surface vessels? The SSBNs and their ballistic missiles would logically carry the majority of the deterrent. How many for the cruise missiles ? Fifteen?

[Chinmayanand]

The Effects of a 300 kiloton Nuclear Warhead Detonated Above Washington, D.C.

If you live in a large city in the U.S., Russia, or any other nation possessing nuclear weapons, there is at least one nuclear warhead aimed at you. It patiently waits day and night for a computer to give it your address and send it on a 10 to 30 minute flight to incinerate you and your family. There are many thousands of strategic nuclear warheads kept constantly ready to turn the cities of the world into hurricanes of fire.



This is a brief description of the effects which a single average sized strategic nuclear weapon would have if detonated above the Pentagon in Washington, D.C. (dozens of such weapons are probably targeted upon D.C. by Russia). The warhead has an explosive power of 300 kilotons (kT), equaling 600 million pounds of dynamite and would be detonated at an altitude of 1500 feet above its target.

A 300 kT warhead would within a millionth of a second release 300 trillion calories of energy primarily in the form of intense light. The surrounding air would be superheated and create a rapidly expanding fireball. Almost all the air within and around the fireball would be compressed into a steeply fronted luminous blast wave of enormous extent and power.

The fireball would extend more than a mile in diameter and at its center produce temperatures of over 200 million degrees Fahrenheit, about four to five times the temperature found at the center of the sun. This unearthly release of heat and energy would create an environment of unimaginable lethality, igniting extensive fires for many tens of square miles and producing a blast wave which would crush and tear apart any structures in its path. The blast wave would also increase the incidence and rate of fire spread by exposing ignitable surfaces, releasing flammable materials and dispersing burning objects.

At Pentagon City, a shopping and office complex 0.7 miles from ground zero at the Pentagon, light from the fireball would melt asphalt in the streets, burn paint off walls, and melt metal surfaces within a half second of detonation. The interior of vehicles in line of sight of the fireball would explode into flames.

About one second later, the blast wave and 750 miles per hour (mph) winds would arrive and toss burning and disintegrating vehicles into the air like leaves in a wind. The blast wave could cave in buildings and would turn windows and furniture into missiles and shrapnel. The interiors of buildings that remained standing would, within minutes, be burning pyres of splintered walls, doors and other combustibles. Seconds after the passage of the blast wave, suction effects created in part by the rising fireball would reverse the winds, drawing them toward the detonation point at perhaps 50 - 70 mph.

All the areas within 1.3 miles of the Pentagon (almost all of the Arlington National Cemetery, most of the Virginia Highlands and Addison Heights neighborhoods, and parts of Washington D.C. reaching to the Lincoln and Jefferson memorials) would experience more than 15 times the thermal energy found at the edge of the mass fire which destroyed Hiroshima. The fireball here would, for a moment, shine 5,000 times brighter than a desert sun at noon.

Grass, vegetation, and leaves on tress would explode into flames, and the surface of the ground would explode into superheated dust. Flames and black smoke would spew out from all combustible materials illuminated by the fireball. The marble on the Lincoln and Jefferson memorials would crack, pop, and possibly evaporate. The light would melt the surface of the bronze statue of Jefferson. Birds in flight would drop from the sky in flames. People exposed to the light would be instantly cremated.

Four seconds later the blast wave would arrive and collapse the Jefferson and Lincoln memorials. This would be followed by winds of 300-400 mph which combining with the blast wave would completely destroy wood-frame and residential brick buildings. Aluminum surfaces on the aircraft at the Reagan National Airport would melt and warp. Interior sections of the aircraft exposed to the fireball would burst into flame. Tires on the aircraft and any nearby vehicles would also catch fire.

Within 3 miles of ground zero the clothing worn by people in direct line of sight of the fireball would burst into flames or melt, and areas of skin not covered by clothing would be scorched, charring flesh and causing third-degree burns. For many miles in all directions, any creature unfortunate enough to look into the fireball at the time of detonation would either be blinded or suffer permanent retinal damage.

Only a few mass fires have occurred in human history; those created by British and American conventional incendiary weapons and the U.S. atomic bombs in World War II. The unique features of the mass fire - the simultaneous combustion of many fires over a large area, which causes a great volume of air to heat, rise, and suck in large amounts of fresh air at hurricane speeds from the periphery - fundamentally distinguish it from other fires in history (otherwise know as line fires, which can burn and spread for days, but were not simultaneously set over large areas).

Fire environments created by mass fires are fundamentally more violent and destructive than fires of smaller scale, and they are far less affected by external weather conditions. Because their dynamics are dominated by the intense hydrodynamic flows generated by the vast releases of energy from combustion in an area of enormous size and the resulting rise of air over the fires zone, these fires are not substantially altered by seasonal and daily weather conditions.

The 300kT detonation would create a mass fire with a radius of 3.5 miles in all but the most extreme weather conditions. Under a majority of weather conditions, there would be a mass fire ignited to a distance of just over 4.5 miles from the detonation.

This gigantic fire would quickly increase in intensity and in minutes generate ground winds of hurricane force with average air temperatures well above the boiling point of water (212 degrees F). The fire would then burn everywhere at this intensity for three to six hours, producing a lethal environment over a total area of approximately 40 to 65 square miles - an area about 10 to 15 times larger than that incinerated by the 15 kT atomic bomb which destroyed Hiroshima.

Even after the fires burned out, street pavement would be so hot that even tracked vehicles could not pass over it for days, and buried and unburned materials from collapsed buildings could burst into flames if exposed to air even weeks after the attack. Those who sought to flee through the streets would be burned alive by hurricane-force winds laden with flames and firebrands. Even those who sought shelter in the deepest subbasements of massive buildings would likely die from heat prostration, suffocation, or lack of water. There would be no escape. The fire would eliminate all life in the fire zone.

The smoke and mushroom cloud, seething with radioactivity, would rise up to blot out the sun. Deadly fallout would contaminate hundreds of square miles downwind with radioactive poisons from the blast, dooming hundreds of thousands of humans and animals to a painful, vicious death from radiation sickness. Much of the land contaminated by the fallout would remain uninhabitable for years. Scattered deaths and higher mortality rates would continue for centuries from cancer, leukemia, and genetic damage to succeeding generations.

Imagine this same event happening, in less than an hour, with not one, but with thousands of strategic nuclear weapons detonating in the cities of the U.S., Russia, China, Europe, India, and Pakistan. The details of such a holocaust are already inscribed in the guidance mechanisms of the missiles waiting to deliver the warheads. Now you understand what the global nuclear arsenals, continually kept at launch on warning status, are capable of doing.

What are you going to do about it?

[Chinmayanand]

Do we have 300 kt warhead for our missiles to be carried on our nuke subs

[Gerard]

After Buddha smiled in 98, they said the design could be scaled up to 200kt IIRC. For a SLBM warhead, 90-100kt is typical.

[NRao]

OT for this thread, however.

Well, with the potential fall of this pearl, China calls halt to Gwadar refinery:

The decision, which follows suspension in January by the United Arab Emirates state-run International Petroleum Investment Company (IPIC) of work on the $5 billion Khalifa Coastal Refinery (KCR) project at Hub, also in Balochistan, creates uncertainty about the future of the planned $12.5 billion mega oil city project in Gwadar, of which the refinery there was to be a key element.

It also casts doubt over plans for a corridor carrying energy pipelines and refinery products the length of Pakistan from Gwadar onto western China.

would India need 300Kt nukes?

[vera_k]

Around the time the nuke deal was being discussed, there was some concern raised around how the existing warheads are not safe for the ATV's crew due to excess radiation. Is that no longer a problem?

[A Sharma]

Jan 2008 article
The secret undersea weapon

The admiral had reason to feel confident about the project. Just last month, an 80MW nuclear reactor, smaller than a bus, was pushed into the hull of the submarine and successfully integrated—a milestone in the project approved by the then prime minister Indira Gandhi in 1970.
Project officials in Vizag are now sealing the reactor with a special shield and plugging in the control systems, turbines and piping. The next few months are critical. After the reactor compartment is sealed, the tail sector— which includes the propeller and the shaft—will be welded in and the submarine will be ready. By April next year, the dry dock will be flooded and the vessel will be officially launched.

After it hits the water, the nuclear reactor will be jump-started and the submarine’s propellers— seven highlyskewed brass blades—will be tested.

[JaiS]

DAE's Official Cutaway of Arihant

[Gerard]

Around the time the nuke deal was being discussed, there was some concern raised around how the existing warheads are not safe for the ATV's crew due to excess radiation. Is that no longer a problem?

The US used supergrade Pu (2-3% Pu240) to minimize occupation exposure of submarine crews to radiation.
Note that fast breeder reactors are ideal for producing supergrade Pu.

[Arun_S]

Around the time the nuke deal was being discussed, there was some concern raised around how the existing warheads are not safe for the ATV's crew due to excess radiation. Is that no longer a problem?

The US used supergrade Pu (2-3% Pu240) to minimize occupation exposure of submarine crews to radiation.
Note that fast breeder reactors are ideal for producing supergrade Pu.

Thanks for pointing this out.

Many months ago (during the No-Confidence Vote in Parliament) I mentioned that Nuclear Submarines will require a new type of warhead testing and thus next round ot TN testign is mandatory before ATV can be made operational.

Let me say this again the 1998 vintage Thermonuclear design CAN NOT be used in submarine based warheads. Even if R Chidambrum's claim of scaling up to 200kT based on Shakti-1 test is taken at face value it cant be used on Agni-3SL. The stowed warhead will kill the ATV crew unless of course the ATV crew is disposable after few years of service in the ATV. (Recall these are highly trained crew and its take fair amount of time to mature in that business; one does get first get trained and then immediately retire for good as far as ATV is concerned).

India has to proof another TN design that only uses super-grade Pu (different from R.Chidambrum vintage fizzle design) .

Till then all weapons on ATV will be the bulky FBF only. India must undoubtly thank Sardar MMS for the 123 Agreement, and Nuclear Vasectomy.

[Gerard]

Specifically the US used supergrade Pu for its W80 Mod 0 SLCM warheads. The Mod 1 was used by the Air Force's ALCMs. Because the Navy crews would in close proximity to the weapons in the torpedo rooms, unlike the Air Force where the exposures were comparatively brief, supergrade Pu was desired.

It doesn't appear that the W76 SLBM warheads use supergrade Pu, since the weapons are shielded by the launch tubes and crew exposure is lower.

[Singha]

thats what I was thinking. would thick lead lining in launch tube and hatch plus a thinner lining around the warhead section of the missile itself cut radiation down to
normal ?

the missile section compartment can then get a third layer of lead lining

[Arun_S]

thats what I was thinking. would thick lead lining in launch tube and hatch plus a thinner lining around the warhead section of the missile itself cut radiation down to
normal ?

the missile section compartment can then get a third layer of lead lining

Sub weight is a cost function. So one can trade lead wall for say the power plant and batteries.

So it wont work.

[Singha]

missile payload could be sacrificed as interim measure...i.e 4 tubes instead of 6.

I do agree that testing and further work should be a continuous process and our test moratorium itself needs to be soundly put in dustbin.

[Arun_S]

It doesn't appear that the W76 SLBM warheads use supergrade Pu, since the weapons are shielded by the launch tubes and crew exposure is lower.

It was many years before US realized the seriousness of the problem, and got rid of all old stuff in sub and put in the Super grade Pu based weapons.

BTW US warheads use a tiny amount of Pu, their third stage is Enriched Uranium (which accounts for very large amount of fissile material in the weapon, and its radioactivity is negligible).

RChidambrum vintage Shakti-1 Fizzle Bum was very different from the US and Russian one. So even a debugged RC vintage BUM will not cut it either fro ATV.

The problem is very serious for Indian ATV.

[Gerard]

Well the real experts - RC, AK et al, who actually design the warheads, the ATV reactors etc, would be on top of all this. After all, they have to provide the Navy with an operational deterrent for the Arihant and her sisters. The GOI didn't spend all this money for all these years to have the K15 carry flower petals.

[vina]

Guys. guys.. Lets get some perpsective. The Al-Hundi reporter is classic DDM. 80MWe indeed! . Why, that means that the reactor needs to put out 400MWt!. Ain possible.

I stand by what I wrote. 80 MWt, 6000tons submerged displacement, max speed, 26knots or so.

However, the Al-Hundi DDM confirmed one important thing that I put. How is it everyone here missed it.

The Max silent speed is around 12 knots!... Read for that in the Al-Hundi article.. 200rpm of the prop and 12 knots and reactor running silently. All that is very credible and that is the operating point they would have designed all the silencing and everything for !

[Arun_S]

Well the real experts - RC, AK et al, who actually design the warheads, the ATV reactors etc, would be on top of all this. After all, they have to provide the Navy with an operational deterrent for the Arihant and her sisters. The GOI didn't spend all this money for all these years to have the K15 carry flower petals.

Gerard saar: While some things are self evident some are not. People who know a bit about weapons, also know that Shakti-1 design and test information cant be applied to a different design that uses different material. One will require another test for the sub payload, and it will self evident to all when it does happen. Signing 123 and thinking RC, AK have "Jinn Power" and can defy gravity is naivety IMVHO. Nativity will take us to a untested weapon that fizzles when the moment of truth stare India in the face.

[Austin]

I stand by what I wrote. 80 MWt, 6000tons submerged displacement, max speed, 26knots or so.

Vina, can you re-calibrate the figure , I believe it should be ~ 7,500 T submerged and ~ 80-85 MW(t)

[Gerard]

The Al-Hundi reporter is classic DDM. 80MWe indeed!

That's the problem. While DDM are legion, the reports of TSS have been consistently high quality. He is given preferential access and provides details we don't see elsewhere. What missile test/space launch/reactor startup thread/report is complete without the details from TSS? I can't think of one in the past few years. His stuff is usually final word on speculation here.

TSS is not typical DDM hence our confusion and speculation ad nauseum.

One wonders how much of what has been released is disinformation.

[shiv]

One wonders how much of what has been released is disinformation.

Disinformation?

Never.

Have you forgotten that "satyameva jayate" is our motto?

[parshuram]

It doesn't appear that the W76 SLBM warheads use supergrade Pu, since the weapons are shielded by the launch tubes and crew exposure is lower.

It was many years before US realized the seriousness of the problem, and got rid of all old stuff in sub and put in the Super grade Pu based weapons.

BTW US warheads use a tiny amount of Pu, their third stage is Enriched Uranium (which accounts for very large amount of fissile material in the weapon, and its radioactivity is negligible).

RChidambrum vintage Shakti-1 Fizzle Bum was very different from the US and Russian one. So even a debugged RC vintage BUM will not cut it either fro ATV.

The problem is very serious for Indian ATV.

Arun Sir .. Then are we actually going to see Arihant armed with these new nukes ? I mean IMVHO i don't see MMS govt conducting any sort of tests to prove a weapon for the sub . Political factor is huge Had it been Bush administration, There would have been that possibiliy but with Obama Administration i guess It is back to prep school as far as testing a nuke is concerned. It will be years before that trust india can build to test the weapon.

[Patrick Cusack]

Looks like the size is shrinking by the day - very soon we will hit sub Kilo submarine size.
Top speed 10knots, 3 missiles, 2 torpedoes, crew all of 10.

I am starting to enjoy this.

[Rahul M]

submerged displacement is certainly not less than 7000 tonnes, might be more.

[Philip]

The Frontline article says that the sub is "6000t" surfaced.Submerged displacement may well be around 7,500t,given the variation between double-hulled Russian subs of similar size.In the print version the figure given for the two reactors,land based at Kalpakkam and identical one on the sub is 80 MWe.The "cutaway" drg. is not that of the Arihant,but a cutaway of "a nuclear sub" used to explain the inner workings of such a sub.There is no sonar shown or even the number of tubes.It is merely illustrative of a N-sub.We've been told that the sub has 4 large missile silos,each carrying three K-15 missiles.In the drg. given,8 tubes are shown.Which is right?

PS:Some details (requested) about the 22350 destroyer/frigates offered to us.

http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/ ... /22350.htm

The authoritative Russian publication Military Parade reports that these ships will feature a displacement of about 4,500 tons, a length of over 130 m, a maximum width of 16 m, a range of over 4,000 miles, and an unlimited sea-going ability. The frigate will be armed with eight Oniks antiship missiles, the A-192 130mm gun mount, the Medvedka-2 antisubmarine missile system, the Uragan medium-range AD missile system, and a hangar-parked helicopter.

The major weapons of the ship are reported to include eight SS-NX-26 Yakhont / Oniks 3M55 anti-surface cruise missiles, a new A-192 130-mm gun mount, Medvedka-2 antisubmarine rocket weapon system, and Hurricane medium-range surface-to-air guided missile system. But this list of weapons is almost identical to the weapons reported to be carried on the much smaller 1,900 ton Project 20380 Stereguschy corvette.

The only Russian combat ship that could feature the BrahMos missiles is the Project 22350 frigate Admiral Sergei Gorshkov being built at the Severnaya Verf shipyard in St. Petersburg. In 1998, Russia and India established the BrahMos Aerospace joint venture to design, develop, produce and market a supersonic cruise missile. The BrahMos missile, named after India's Brahmaputra River and Russia's Moskva River, has a range of 180 miles (290 km) and can carry a conventional warhead of up to 660 pounds. It can hit ground and sea targets while flying at an altitude as low as 10 meters (30 feet) and at a speed of Mach 2.8, which is about three times faster than the U.S.-made subsonic Tomahawk cruise missile.

Two pics elssewhere (http://**************/2008/1 ... lling.html) old news reg. Pres.Med's visit last yr.

[Willy]

How many nuke warheads is India capable of building at the moment and how many would we need in the future.How much fissile material do we have.

[Rahul M]

How many nuke warheads is India capable of building at the moment

How much fissile material do we have.

that would come under 'classified information'. better leave it at that.

[Rishi]

How many nuke warheads is India capable of building at the moment and how many would we need in the future.How much fissile material do we have.

Nuke warheads: 1.3/5 business days (Nuclear Weapons Stockpiling Authority of India does not work on Sundays, and alternate saturdays and govt. holidats)

How many do we need: IAF, IN, IA and Cost Guard combined, about 350 (125 kt avg per w/h) in active deployment by 2020, and 200% reserve

Military grade fissile material (2006 figures, extrapolate for 2009)

U-238 - 2500 kg, but fluctuates due to half life deletions and additions
U-235 (99% enriched) - 1900 kg, same as above
Pu-233 - Not sure - between 300-400 kg.

Yellow Cake supply - 400t in reserve
Brown Cake supply - unlimited.

Source: International Institute of Strategies ki Studies.

[Austin]

PS:Some details (requested) about the 22350 destroyer/frigates offered to us.

We should not be spending any thing more than $600 - 700 million per frigate under P-17A, including TOT , weapons etc etc , the follow in talwar costed us nearly $ 400 million per frigate.

To spend $ 1.2 billion on a frigate as was proposed for French class is insane , so no matter where it comes from French , Russia or else where , the should not spend a billion dollar per frigate and then end up with a silver bullet.