x-posted
My condolences to the victims and their kin.
Initial take on this issue:
1. This is almost surely an ISI/LeT operation, the prime evidence for that is the
Feb 5 pigLeT rally where LeT's #2 Makkhi-choos said this:
At one time, jihadis were interested only in the liberation of Kashmir, but the water issue had ensured that “Delhi, Pune and Kanpur” were all fair targets, he said.
2. TSPA and pigLeTs have calibrated their terror output to achieve tactical politcal objectives. 26/11 was meant to guarantee a border crisis so that TSPA could escape US pressure to take on their own assets. Today, the immediate political objective is to force India to back off talks.
3. The reason for TSPA to force India to back off talks is that India's offer, although borne out of weakness, caught Kayani by surprise. Kayani had just launched a verbal offensive hihglighting the India threat, with ISI moutpieces raking up the bogus water issue along with the usual J&K stuff. If talks were to proceed, even if superficial, it would severely undercut TSPA efforts to thwart US pressure to act in N.Waziristan. Unkil can say - India is talking and offering x,y,z so why can't you move a few more brigades to FATA if not a division or two?
4. Given the limited objectives, pigLeTs and ISI could not use their own assets like in 26/11, so they likely used SIMI/IM people for this, the same people who were probably interacting with Headley/Rana and provided local support for 26/11.
5. Usually attacks by pigLeTs or their subcontractors precede a verbal volley by Hafiz-e-pig or other top leaders. Given this, we can expect follow on attacks of the same scale in Delhi, Kanpur, Hyderabad etc., all of which were mentioned in last week's rallies as targets
6. If GoI does not back off from talks now or after the immediate follow on attacks, or if the follow ons fizzle out, we can expect another 26/11 type attack originating from TSP not too long from now
7. From the current set of weaklings in New Delhi, we can expect another stellar exhibition of spinelessness. P.Chidambaram at Home may be one small exception but he is pushing against a tide of jelly spines.