Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP), Feb. 26, 2010

[negi]

It is in line with a Geo TV program I watched where lots of college students were accumulated in an auditorium and asked "What is Pakistan's most pressing problem?" and the answer most gave was "lack of education".

Yes indeed and that is why colleges in Bakistan these days have started inviting Zaid Hamid for delivering guest lectures .
More power to such colleges.

[shiv]

Shiv,

It is in line with a Geo TV program I watched where lots of college students were accumulated in an auditorium and asked "What is Pakistan's most pressing problem?" and the answer most gave was "lack of education".

Anyway, here is Huma Yusuf in Dawn about population policy.

In many ways, the story of Pakistan is one of a failure of family planning. Although the Family Planning Association of Pakistan was set up as early as 1952, we have seen a five-fold increase in our population between 1951 and 2009, from 34 million to 171 million.

Will try to see where Pakistanis discuss what we see as Pakistan's real problems.

-Arun

Check this report. 2009. You may in fact have pointed me to the link earlier - can't recall.
http://pewglobal.org/reports/pdf/265.pdf
See page 31

This is what Pakis think are their problems


Also see what they think of India.

[Rudradev]

The PAF and Navy exercises are bit disturbing, with the snows beging to melt in March April, are the pakis preparing for brilliant miltary operation. Seems likely, we should be on alert.

Absolutely.

In fact, going by TSPA's historical tendencies and tactical brilliance, there are very good reasons why the Pakis might attempt to piggyback a military assault/ Kashmir grab on High Mark along the lines of Brasstacks in the '80s.

1) The TSPA has convinced itself, rightly or wrongly, that MMS is a napunsak PM. They see him as weak because he didn't retaliate after 26/11, keeps pushing the peace process, offers to walk the extra mile, and seems to adhere to everything the US wants. However there is dissension even within the ranks of MMS' own party so he may not be PM for very long.

TSPA may see his PM-ship as a window of opportunity, the way they saw Lal Bahadur Shastri's: an attack limited to the J&K theater might go unretaliated for just long enough to change the situation on the ground in J&K before international pressure forced a ceasefire. TSPA may calculate that in the aftermath, MMS would be more likely to make concessions at the negotiating table than any other Indian PM.

2) The TSPA knows that this is an opportune time. The US is desperate to get out of Afghanistan and has been showering praise on Pakistan's recent efforts at locking up Taliban leaders. Holbrooke has been all over the media trumpeting the improvement in US-Pak ties, and parroting such spinmeister phrases as "Pakistan's threat from giant neighbour India" which haven't really been heard in the mainstream US media since the Cold War days. Petraeus too, recently, said something about how Pakistan is a "narrow country" and its strategic concerns must be kept in mind. All these things might convince the TSPA that the US would firmly take its side if it forced a limited military showdown in Kashmir (IOW, they now hold all the cards with Washington which they didn't during Kargil).

We don't know what kind of promises/half-promises/assurances Holbrooke, Raphael et al might have given the TSPA regarding India behind closed doors. We do know that the TSPA is likely to view anything held out to them with the most optimistic interpretation, in terms of support against India. So they might believe that the US would wink and nod at a limited military thrust in J&K, while putting the maximum pressure on India to go to the negotiating table and not to retaliate along a wider front (as in '65).

3) In terms of military strength, Mirza Aslam Beg and others have recently opined that TSPA is now strong conventionally, after massive infusions of US military aid, while India has been dithering in attempts to modernize its own armed forces. If this is the conventional wisdom in the TSPA, they may think this is their best and last chance to force a conventional victory in a limited engagement. After all, once the Americans leave the military aid might slow down or vanish, while India will eventually get around to acquiring its MMRCAs and other things.

The TSPA always becomes more aggressive with India when it is flush with newly acquired military hardware from the 3.5 friends. The US always pretends that it does not know about this tendency of TSPA, and that its supply of armaments to TSPA is for some legitimate purpose. However, the TSPA may take the fact of the US supplying them with armaments as tacit US approval of an aggressive military move against India (whether or not this is actually what the US intended).

4) The Indians so far had the disadvantage of taking a long time to mobilize in retaliation against a terrorist strike. The announcement of Cold Start has browned the Pakis pants, because they can no longer count on international pressure to build up over time and restrain India in the aftermath of a terrorist attack. So the only way they can keep the initiative against an India ready for Cold Start, is to be ready for a pre-emptive strike against IA immediately after a terrorist attack and before a Cold Start response begins.

An exercise like High Mark gives them an opportunity to do this.

5) Domestically the TSPA is on the back foot with the Islamists. If in fact "Punjabi Taliban" have started blowing up things in Lahore, their last line of Jihadi allies may be on the verge of abandoning them. TSPA knows that this alienation will get progressively worse as they continue arresting Talibs and helping the US; on the other hand, the alienation could be totally reversed by a quick and decisive victory over India... especially in Kore Issue Land.

6) Finally, it is typical of TSPA to try and seize the initiative. Right now there is no overt sign that the US will support them on Kashmir, but Holbrooke and others may have given them just enough jhol, to make them believe that if they took the initiative to seize Kashmir by force, the US would accept the new status quo as it did not during Kargil.

One way I see this possibly happening is:

a) A massive terrorist attack takes place while High Mark is in progress. It does not have to be at an IPL venue (that is where we are expecting it to be, after all). But something even worse and more high-profile than 26/11.
b) Immediately after, the Pakis will yell that India is preparing a Cold Start, and conduct airstrikes on IA Western Command positions in "pre-emptive" mode a-la 1971. After all TSPAF will already be mobilized for the "exercises", and TSPN will be standing ready to deny IN a Karachi blockade.
c) I am not sure if we will see a formal TSPA thrust in J&K or simply a huge force (upto a lakh) of Jihadis rushing the LoC/IB at multiple points, backed up by massive TSPA artillery and airstrikes. Something like the Chinese entering Korea in the '50s but backed up with F-16s carrying LGBs. Formal TSPA may come later as they did in '48, '65 and '99.
d) As this happens TSPA will arrest/hand over to the US LOTS of Taliban and Al-Qaeda figures... they may even arrest Mullah Omar.

What happens next is up to us.

[Anujan]

Rudradev-ji

Conventional attack on India = economic suicide for the Pakis. Their economy is in a really really really bad shape and is in the ICU on drips. Pakis invade India, capture JK, give us a bloody nose and the world intervenes before we capture lost territory ... and what next? Paki economy goes down the tubes.

I think that the exercise is more of a deterrent posture against Indian retaliation for Paki terrorism. They will use their mobilized conventional forces to push in Jihadis, deter Indian retaliation and conduct more terror strikes.

But the points you raise got me thinking. If a huge crowed of 100,000 (semi-civvie) people "spotaneously gathered" and marched towards the border, what are the rules of engagement?

[Prem]

Rudradev-ji
But the points you raise got me thinking. If a huge crowed of 100,000 (semi-civvie) people "spotaneously gathered" and marched towards the border, what are the rules of engagement?

MG methods are time tested , capable to stop any march. India must evolve from old MG=Mahatma Gandhi to current MG = Machine Gun while dealing with Paki .

[vera_k]

If a huge crowed of 100,000 (semi-civvie) people "spotaneously gathered" and marched towards the border, what are the rules of engagement?

There is the Bangladesh model. The people have to be resettled in their own territory with their own government.

[shaardula]

that is the hamid gul model isn't it? he has been carping about it for the longest time. these guys are banking on militarized belligerent commons to achieve their political ends. HG has said this explicitly, countries like india , US etc are too bogged down in their own "progressive" theories and rhetoric to effectively challenge a deliberately obsucrantist, belligerent commune of people. that is the entire game plan. to make irrational claims, be belligerent and beat and wear out the enemy in its own rhetoric.

if you realistically look at kashmir issue, what else is there? calculated provocation and manufactured victimization, what else? any bearing to reality, practicality, to real grievances?

[Lalmohan]

around 12-15 years ago i was at a wedding of a person of pakistani descent. i was ushered into the men's room and soon found myself surrounded by a large group of purelanders visiting from pureland. all were suited/booted or smart shalwared and educated. Not RAPE, but clearly not badly off. One of the expat-paquis asked the question - "to janaab, pakistan ka kya khabar hai?" no one in the room knew that i was a damn kaffir, so i braced myself for a tirade of anti-india rhetoric - there had been a string of bombings across pakistan that week and these were being blamed on RAW-haath in the press...

to my utter surprise, the only topics that came up were poor governance, economic mismanagement and those bloody faujis. I suspect things today may be a little different.

[Rudradev]

Rudradev-ji

Conventional attack on India = economic suicide for the Pakis. Their economy is in a really really really bad shape and is in the ICU on drips. Pakis invade India, capture JK, give us a bloody nose and the world intervenes before we capture lost territory ... and what next? Paki economy goes down the tubes.

Well Anujan-ji

1) That's why they call it "tactical brilliance"

2) The TSPA may be gambling that no matter what they do, the Americans/3.5 friends cannot and will not back out of bailing them out because the Pakis are just that important to a face-saving retreat from an unaffordable Afghan war. Paki economy is on life support anyway, as you say.

TSPA may bet that the Americans just cannot afford the consequences of taking the Pak economy off life support, or failing to increase life support as necessary, until 2011 when Ombaba can quit Afghanistan with a pretense of dignity.

[shaardula]

gagan, in the videos you posted NS says musharraf clamped down on JeM etc and they turned around and tried to assasinate him and joined Alq.

NS is either trying to admit that the tsp state is scared of islamists within its fold, and has lost all control over them
or
trying to do a massive taquiya, in trying to scare off an outsider with the manufactured spectre of the uncontrollable islamist no state actors.

if it is former, then indians for example should be negotiating only with hafeez saeed and not gilani.

if it is latter then indians for example should not be negotiating with anybody in tsp at all.

no this is important bcoz NS badgers WC about how reasonable is india in trying to insist that terrorism be stopped, before talks. he badgers her as if this is a valid position. she is weighed down by her own position as an amaerican diplomat to being nice and decent, but somebody of worth, who unencumbered by such diplomatic niceties, should really ask of people of NS's type: if TSP is not in a position to control its own islamists and their violence against india, then why should anybody talk to them? what practical purpose does it serve? why indulge in, as the thigh slapping TSP minister said, "photo-ops" and "useless talk"??

[SwamyG]

But the points you raise got me thinking. If a huge crowed of 100,000 (semi-civvie) people "spotaneously gathered" and marched towards the border, what are the rules of engagement?

What are they holding in their hands as 'march'? Guns or begging bowls? If it is the former they would be enemies, if it is the latter they will be classified as refugees, no?

Now aren't you giving ideas to the country that is fast running out of them ?

[putnanja]

Rudradev-ji

Conventional attack on India = economic suicide for the Pakis. Their economy is in a really really really bad shape and is in the ICU on drips. Pakis invade India, capture JK, give us a bloody nose and the world intervenes before we capture lost territory ... and what next? Paki economy goes down the tubes.

Their economy is already down the tube, so what have they got to lose? India on the other hand has its economic prosperity to lose and investor confidence too, not to forget the travel advisories that will follow.

If a beggar in tattered clothes swims in shit and throws it on passer-by, it won't change his situation.

[Anujan]

This RAA and its nefarious designs, I tell you !!

http://www.onlinenews.com.pk/details.php?id=159945

Well placed sources told Online Saturday that Indian intelligence agency RAW has started providing financial assistance to Taliban through alcohol and beetle nut (chalia) under Afghan trade to use them to serve its nefarious designs

[CRamS]

Rudradev-ji

Conventional attack on India = economic suicide for the Pakis. Their economy is in a really really really bad shape and is in the ICU on drips. Pakis invade India, capture JK, give us a bloody nose and the world intervenes before we capture lost territory ... and what next? Paki economy goes down the tubes.

You've got to be kidding. I hope Indian army is not so weak to be able to thwart TSP from achieving this. If they can pull this off, India will crumble like 9 pins. It will be psychologically de-moralizing.

But RudraJi is right; TSP won't back down unless there is a change in status quo in their favor; they are least bit worried about their economy at the moment. Which form they will attempt to do so is anybody's guess.

[ramana]

...
no this is important bcoz NS badgers WC about how reasonable is india in trying to insist that terrorism be stopped, before talks. he badgers her as if this is a valid position. she is weighed down by her own position as an amaerican diplomat to being nice and decent, but somebody of worth, who unencumbered by such diplomatic niceties, should really ask of people of NS's type: if TSP is not in a position to control its own islamists and their violence against india, then why should anybody talk to them? what practical purpose does it serve? why indulge in, as the thigh slapping TSP minister said, "photo-ops" and "useless talk"??

All those Non State Actors are TSPA attack dogs to give it plausible deniability. And thry were really nurtured in the Afghan jihad days to be used against recalcitrant countries like :FSU, India, Iran etc...

[Anujan]

Rudradev-ji

Conventional attack on India = economic suicide for the Pakis. Their economy is in a really really really bad shape and is in the ICU on drips. Pakis invade India, capture JK, give us a bloody nose and the world intervenes before we capture lost territory ... and what next? Paki economy goes down the tubes.

You've got to be kidding. I hope Indian army is not so weak to be able to thwart TSP from achieving this. If they can pull this off, India will crumble like 9 pins. It will be psychologically de-moralizing.

But RudraJi is right; TSP won't back down unless there is a change in status quo in their favor; they are least bit worried about their economy at the moment. Which form they will attempt to do so is anybody's guess.

CRamS-ji

I did not mean to imply that Pak army is capable of pulling this off. Even with their shiny new toys, our armed forces are capable enough to give a resounding kick on their musharraf.

I meant to consider "worst case" scenario of resounding victory by the Pak army. *Even if* they manage all this

1. US civvies disbursing aid will be evacuated
2. US logistics caravan through Karachi will be cut off by Indian blockade & bombing, so CSF payments wont happen
3. Paki army will use up all of their fuel reserves
4. All sectors of economy which depends on transportation/shipping will grind to a halt

When I say "economy down the tubes", I dont mean GDP plunged by 10%.

I mean abduls standing in queue for food and water, with no electricity in places like Karachi and Lahore. With MQM gunmen taking over Krachi, hospitals stuffed with the wounded, looters roaming the street with a general mayhem & free for all.

[A_Gupta]

^^^
Anujan, I suppose you're including things like this - how close PSO is to default on payments.
Dawn

I dunno however if these folks are trying to extort money from the public treasury or whether they are really in trouble.

With its receivables rising beyond Rs105 billion, Pakistan State Oil (PSO) needs at least Rs57 billion between now and April 28 to avoid default on international payments for oil imports and ensure smooth oil supplies in the country.

“We have been forced to cut down oil imports and are inviting much lower tenders than usual for furnace oil and diesel to avoid immediate default,” PSO Managing Director Irfan K. Qureshi told National Assembly’s Standing Committee on Petroleum and Natural Resources on Wednesday.

“Our interest on bank loans is eating up our profits. We are very near to default. We need Rs57 billion between now and April 28 to retire letters of credit (LCs) to foreign suppliers including Kuwait for furnace oil and diesel we have already imported. If we don’t pay, Pakistan will default on foreign payments and it would be a big humiliation for the country”, he told the parliamentarians belonging to a cross section of political parties who awfully looked at him.

[A_Gupta]

Shiv,
This is for you
Dawn: Interview with Abdul Sattar Edhi who in practical terms probably cares the most about the Mango Abdul of anyone on this earth.

-Arun

[ramana]

X-post...

Massive PAF exercises this month

SLAMABAD, March 12: Pakistan Air Force will hold its biggest exercises in the third week of this month. The exercises will cover the entire country, from Skardu in the north to Arabian Sea in the south.

Sources told Dawn on Friday that High Mark 2010 would be different from all previous exercises because it would also feature operations involving army and navy personnel.

The recently inducted squadron of JF-17 Thunder aircraft and all other fighter jets will participate in the war games.

The sources said all new inductions, including the Swedish Airborne Early Warning and Control planes and mid-air refueller aircraft, would take part in the High Mark-2010 which was expected to continue for about 45 days.

Forty-Five days??? is it an exercise or a freaking war??? Probably 15 days for army, 15 for navy and 15 for the airforce

Ever since the Egyptians, under Anwar Sadat, attacked Israel after mobilising under the guise of exercises, neighboring countries should be vigilant.

Most likely they plan to execute a terrorist strike on India and being already mobilised they can hope to forestall an Indian repsonse ala Cold Start. I see no way they can afford a 45 day exercise period. Hope GOI wont get caught with intelligence failure again.

[svinayak]

Ever since the Egyptians, under Anwar Sadat, attacked Israel after mobilising under the guise of exercises, neighboring countries should be vigilant.

Surprise attack on many IAF bases in 1965 and repeated in 1971 should not be allowed ever.
The answer should be only one - Cold Start

[anupmisra]

Closeted Tellybunny
Nawaz Sharif threat to Pakistan stability: Musharraf

Former president Pervaiz Musharraf slammed PML-N chief Nawaz Sharif on Monday and labeled him as a closeted Taliban. Musharraf said that Sharif is a great threat to the stability of Pakistan.

Musharraf accused politicians of being hypocrites.

If this does not get the die hard pakjabis riled up, what will?

[anupmisra]

Evidence of intrusion in Afghanistan handed to India: FM

the FM said Pakistan will hold talks with India in case evidence of Indian involvement is found in terrorist activities of Lahore

If none is found, then what's plan B? No talks?

[Ananya]

These escercise are in response to what we did a few days back. They want to prove a point. I only hope our guys take the radar signatures of the objects that fly across the border as that could proove crutial.

We whould post some satellite images of these excesices from their land with 1M resolution and Sar images and post them on the web. that would quiten them for some time

We must also start our excersices in different parts of the country . the more they retaliate in a similiar manner , more money would be spent from their coffers in these excersices and eventually they will run to Unkil and poodle for support.

[anupmisra]

The sources said all new inductions, including the Swedish Airborne Early Warning and Control planes would take part in the High Mark-2010 which was expected to continue for about 45 days.

Forty-Five days?

Long enough to watch IPL Live without subscriptions. In all seriousness, that's when the puki ingenuity and plausible deniability will come in play. My bet is that's when another "untraceable" attack on Indian soil is likely to take place as someone else pointed out.

[rohitvats]

Ever since the Egyptians, under Anwar Sadat, attacked Israel after mobilising under the guise of exercises, neighboring countries should be vigilant.

Most likely they plan to execute a terrorist strike on India and being already mobilised they can hope to forestall an Indian repsonse ala Cold Start. I see no way they can afford a 45 day exercise period. Hope GOI wont get caught with intelligence failure again.

In case anyone has read the news for last couple of months, Indian Strike Corps and associated Pivot Corps are in their "training areas" on excercise since beginning of January.

Another important factor is the training area of the PA formations. Are they in their traditional areas or closer to their jump -off points? Plus, have they moved with their first and second line of ammunition? And as I said somewhere else, how much maneuver and flying be actually involved in these "excercises"?

Another thing to watch out is how the ARN and ARS have been positioned in this chess board...

[rohitvats]

Ever since the Egyptians, under Anwar Sadat, attacked Israel after mobilising under the guise of exercises, neighboring countries should be vigilant.

Surprise attack on many IAF bases in 1965 and repeated in 1971 should not be allowed ever.
The answer should be only one - Cold Start

I'd be more inclined to not use the Cold Start (if the PA has already not been committed). I will reply to their air-raids with my own bombing on their strategic assets and as a high value mark, take out the ISI HQ. Air Force is one area where we can bash the Pakis convincingly and inflict serious attrition and loss of H&D...

[Nandu]

Landslide has blocked the only road between Pakistan and China.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E_-SXKIXPkI

[ramana]

So maybe we need an exercise watch and monitor all sources(paki English and Urdu press on this round of exercises? And op-eds and Gul baaz statements.
Rohit how about in the mil forum existing thread till they start and then a new thread perhaps?

[rohitvats]

So maybe we need an exercise watch and monitor all sources(paki English and Urdu press on this round of exercises? And op-eds and Gul baaz statements.
Rohit how about in the mil forum existing thread till they start and then a new thread perhaps?

ramana garu, will compile and post first set in Pakistan thread of Mil-Forum by tomorrow evening (IST)....

[vijayk]

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/35880751/ns ... tral_asia/
Rickshaw bomber kills 10 in Pakistan
Dozens injured as suicide attacker targets Swat Valley checkpoint

A suicide attacker set off a bomb at a security checkpoint in northwest Pakistan on Saturday, killing at least 10 people and injuring 52, officials and a doctor said, underscoring the relentless security threat to this Islamic nation.

The attacker, who was driving a three-wheeled motorized rickshaw, detonated the explosives at a roadblock manned by soldiers and police in the town of Saidu Sharif in the Swat Valley, police official Qazi Farooq said.

[RamaY]

I'd be more inclined to not use the Cold Start (if the PA has already not been committed). I will reply to their air-raids with my own bombing on their strategic assets and as a high value mark, take out the ISI HQ. Air Force is one area where we can bash the Pakis convincingly and inflict serious attrition and loss of H&D...

I posted this scenario ~ a year ago.

I would attack all known airforce and army contonments with Apsarasas. A couple of them can ensure a brand new ISI HQ for Pasha-II.

Yes. Pakis will try to return the favor. The difference is India can rebuild its air fields. Unkil has to donate them to Pakis. Use MMRCA to influence Unkil. You want to re-arm Pakis, we will take our business somewhere else.

[Rahul Shukla]

IIRC, IPL was explicitly mentioned as a target in some recent rants by some Paki jihadi.

[Prem]

The fact is that even Quaid-e-Azam did not realise the great folly in going into Kashmir. There is overwhelming evidence to suggest that he had instructed a number of ministers to help the ‘freedom fighters’ whereas Liaquat and some others were lukewarm in their support. This difference of opinion in the central cabinet comes out clearly in Major (retd) Agha Humayun Amin’s book on the Pakistan Army to which Riaz Shahid has referred in his above-mentioned essay.But here are some arguments to prove that the Kashmir War actually set in motion a process that diminished our claim on Kashmir. Maharaja Hari Singh Dogra had no intention of merging his state with either India or Pakistan. The Pakistan-sponsored insurgency forced him to choose sides. The Indian emissary, VP Menon, arrived in Srinagar with a document that stipulated Indian military help only if the Maharaja signed the Accession Bill. There is some dispute as to the actual date on which it was signed, but the document that the Indians have in their possession gives October 26 as the date on which it was signed.

The 1947-48 Kashmir War —Ishtiaq Ahmed
http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.as ... 2010_pg3_2

[Prem]

Death by debt
Patient Assfaque Khan

Today, the country is drowned under debt. The recently released numbers pertaining to debt are scary. Public debt increased from Rs7542 billion in end-June 2009 to Rs8470 billion in end-December 2009. In other words, Pakistan added Rs928 billion in public debt in just six months. Exchange rate depreciation alone contributed Rs181 billion in the rise of public debt in six months. Since end-June 2007, Pakistan has added Rs3656 billion in public debt, in which, the contribution of exchange rate depreciation is estimated at Rs1165 billion or 32 per cent. It is disturbing to note that in the last 60 years the total stock of public debt stood at Rs4814 billion and in just two and a half years, we added Rs3656 billion in public debt to stand at Rs8470 billion by end-December 2009. This is nothing but a massacre of the country's economy by the current political leadership.
External debt and liabilities stood at $55.7 billion by end-December 2009 – increased from $52.3 billion in end-June 2009. In other words, Pakistan added $3.342 billion in external debt in just six months of the year. For the information of our readers, Pakistan added $2.6 billion in external debt in seven years but in the last two and a half years, it added $15.3 billion to stand at $55.7 billion

http://thenews.jang.com.pk/daily_detail.asp?id=229259

[Guddu]

X-post...

Massive PAF exercises this month

Ever since the Egyptians, under Anwar Sadat, attacked Israel after mobilising under the guise of exercises, neighboring countries should be vigilant.

Most likely they plan to execute a terrorist strike on India and being already mobilised they can hope to forestall an Indian repsonse ala Cold Start. I see no way they can afford a 45 day exercise period. Hope GOI wont get caught with intelligence failure again.

45 days to mobilize sounds right, at the end of which there could be a terrorist strike. Any religious days at the end of April ?. How on earth can they afford a 45 day mobilization, with their economy on life support. Something does not jive. Is the mobilization expected to go north to south or vice versa. This may indicate where to expect a strike.

[Hari Seldon]

swmaygaru,

What are they holding in their hands as 'march'? Guns or begging bowls? If it is the former they would be enemies, if it is the latter they will be classified as refugees, no?

And what if they have both?

And what if upon reaching the border they pointed the guns to their own heads while extending the begging bowls? (true paki style).

[Airavat]

If a foreign power divides Pakistan by force, the Pakistani army may be unhappy (like they were after Bangladesh was formed) but peace is imposed and the costs of continuous fighting are removed for the Pakis (as well as for the new country).

A far better option is to let the Paki army keep on fighting its own people within its own territory.......An intact Pakistan is currently in India's interest.

The Paki army is not fighting its own people; they're just taking hits from insurgents. As long as the people in other provinces are not provided with the means of forming and protecting their own states, the stage of the Paki army "fighting its own people" will not be reached.

The process of dividing Pakistan may take a long time, years or even decades, but in that time the Paki army will keep bleeding to death, unable to focus any attention on India. After the division the rump state of Punjabistan will be too dependent on its neighbors (Balochistan for gas and power, Pashtunistan for water and power, Sindh for global trade and markets, India for trade, water and power) and finally lose all ability to be a nuisance to them.

[abhishek_sharma]

Pak economy to grow on fast pace once wave of terror ebbs: expert

http://www.thenews.com.pk/daily_detail.asp?id=229230

The law and order situation and the wave of terrorism is not for always and as soon as situation gets better the economy of Pakistan will grow on fastest pace and world is waiting for that time and I am sure the time will come soon, said Tokyo Institute Of Technology (TI Tec) Director Dr Kenji Mori.

...

He was apparently pointing towards the basic issue in Pakistan’s development that the people running the country face - their plans don’t fail but they fail to plan. Pakistan is rich in human resource capital, Dr Kenji Mori said as he had number of Pakistani students who did Phds under his supervision and always found their genius better than the students of many other countries.

“But the country requires a leadership to set the direction,” Prof Kenji Mori said. One should learn from the success experience. Japan learned the United States success experience, China learned from Japanese, India learned from US, Japanese and Chinese success model and got developed in shortest period of time.

Pakistan too should learn from the successful nations’ experience to speedup economic growth, otherwise the country would have to spend lots of time to perform its own experiences and may not succeed, Dr Mori said.

“Development of any nation needs focus on education and infrastructure. If Pakistan concentrates on these two issues I am sure it will not take long time to develop Pakistan as a first world country and of course Japan will help Pakistan in all manner,” he said.

...

[abhishek_sharma]

Imaging Taliban

http://www.thenews.com.pk/daily_detail.asp?id=229255

In the aftermath of last week's bombings in Lahore there is again debate about 'the Punjabi Taliban' and whether or not they exist and what might be their motives or capacities. Some say there is 'no such thing' as the Punjabi Taliban whilst others see a possibility that southern Punjab could go the way of Swat.

...

South Punjab is no stranger to extremists. They were there long before the Taliban phenomenon took shape and they remain there now. Both Jaish-e-Mohammed and Sipah-e-Sahaba have operated in the area for many years and conducted campaigns largely directed at the minority Shia populations. Extremist organisations, banned or otherwise, have substantial assets in the area. Extremist organisations are able to hold public rallies in southern Punjab apparently without objection from the forces of law and order.

...

There are anecdotal reports of the Taliban in the north relocating their strategic planning operations to southern Punjab, and other anecdotal reports of 'northern' Taliban using southern Punjab as a rest-and-recovery area.

...

Extremist organisations in southern Punjab have the patronage of at least one senior establishment figure and are apparently tolerated by the police and security services.

...

[shiv]

Please excuse me for recognizing a "cognitive bias" here - meaning "I think in this way, therefore I expect the Paquis to think like me"

Exercise High Mark is a PAF exercise. PAF is Pakistan Air Force. Not Pakistan Armed Forces.

If you read the details of all conflicts, the Air Force and army have never been coordinated after 1965. Even in 1965 the coordination was due to some excellent leadership in the PAF and not pre-planned coordination. Otherwise Pak wars have been fought in isolation by the Paki army without taking the Air Force into confidence based on egos and inter service rivalry. i kid you not.

Both countries routinely monitor each other's exercises, and and I don't think India is so dumb as to sit back and not take note of any activity not in consonance with an exercise. 45 days and "whole country" could mean that units fly from one base to another and exercise in different parts of the country to get used to the conditions and procedures there.

Having said that, is it possible at all that with Exercise Brasstacks, Pakistans made ulloos out of Indians rather than the other way round.

If you ask a jingo about Exercise Brasstacks he will say that under Gen Krishna Rao India was ready to slice Pakistan. What evidence is there that this is true I wonder if the bogey of Krishna Rao wanting to slice Pakistan and Pakis threatening nuclear retaliation is Paki story that suits both the Indian narrative and the Paqui narrative. But it could well have been a Paki initiative to interfere with a massive Indian exercise. I mean Pakis - raising the bogey of an Indian invasion during an Indian exercise created a Pakistani victory out of an Indian exercise by creating the following story:

"Gen Krishna Rao was ready to slice Pakistan in the guise of "Exercise Brasstacks. But Pakistan was vigilant and the got ready to nuke India. A message was sent to the Indian PM hat India will get nuked - thus scaring him and therefore Pakistan was not sliced as it would have been. This was a clear victory for Pakistan when the called India's bluff"

But what if there was never any intent to actually attack Pakistan? What if it was just a plain military exercise? But in 2010 we have people saying "Oh we should have sliced Pakistan back then" and we have Paquis saying "Our nukes thwarted belligerent Indian Generals" A nice story to cook up nuclear victory by Pakistan may now have become the accepted narrative.

Any military exercise can be a guise for an attack. To that extent Exercise High Mark is preparation for an attack on India. But we have no information beyond that to say that it is going to be an attack. Besides, even if there is a terrorist attack, why should India attack Pakistan during Exercise High Mark when they are ready? . Let the exercise be completed. Let the planes and equipment undergo wear and tear and go for some post exercise maintenance and India can attack after the 45 day IPL and 45 day exercise no?

The setting up of a bogey that High Mark is a prelude to a terrorist attack and a subsequent thwarting of war, it sets the stage for several "correct predictions" to be made on BRF

• We predicted there would be an attack
  We predicted that Pakis would be ready for retaliation
  We predicted that MMS is too weak for retaliation
  We predicted that Pakistan is very strong
  We predicted that India is weak

All we have to do now is let IPL and High Lark proceed (as they will with or without our intervention) and wait for the "other shoe to drop"

Depending on what actually happens in these 45 days, various stories can be cooked up to match reality

Pakistan was ready to attack on march 31st, but the IAF got wind of it and did blahblahand the Army and Navy for their part did blahblah and so Pakistanis did a quick reassessment and a downhill ski. Pakis got low marks in High Mark

That could be a nice equalequal for Pakistan.