Raja Ram wrote:Rhetorical questions:
1. Indian elite not targeted yet? Diners and guests of Taj and Oberoi on that fateful day were Mango men? The German Bakery visitors in Pune were Aam aadmi?
2. Pune, Mumbai are in "disputed areas" of Kashmir?
No Rajaramji - you misunderstand. Let me say up front thoughts I have had from time to time. It is common knowledge that the police-population ratio in India is lower than what is considered ideal. I look around me in some areas and I think - how easy it would be to spray bullets into this crowd or place a bomb. It is hardly likely that I am the only person to have such thoughts.
But yet the level of terrorism that we see is lower than what is possible. This could be pure chance. On the other hand I might be doing our police and border vigilance services a disfavor by not acknowledging that India has been kept relatively safe for a huge majority of people.
If you look back through the years - the terrorists had the right idea. If you place a bomb in a railway station - people are killed and some people mourn for a few days and thats it. So if you are a group that wants revolution you really must target the top. Get Generals, the Gandhis, the ministers, and make their life so miserable and fearful that the nation can be brought to its knees. In fact terrorism was directed initially at top targets. It was first directed at the Army because the terrorists rightly calculated that if you can break the morale of the armed forces (by force) the civilians can do nothing. Naturally the armed forces were the first to wise up and make their areas tough to penetrate without the terrorists being killed.
Gradually (as always) terrorism worked its way down the list of targets to start hitting easier and easier targets ("soft targets") where they could cause mayhem, but yet escape. The real problem for terrorists is this - as you go down the list of targets of importance, the less likely you are to achieve your aim of brining down a state or government. Now there is a class system even in soft targets. The elite travel in planes, and airline security is high. So it is easier to hit railway stations. The Mumbai and Pune attacks may indicate a new phase, but taken as a whole - you still find that mango man has a taken a bigger hit simply because he is more omni present and less easy to protect. But you need to count terrorist deaths from 1990 onwards to see what i mean. This kind of terrorism can never achieve the defeat of the Indian state - it's just not hitting where it matters.
But let me point out the problem of not being able to hit where it matters.
If you go back and search the forum pages right here in this thread you will find a Paki in Lahore who is talking about a fashion show in Lahore and interviews of Pakis who insist (like I have done in this thread) that terrorism in Pakistan is not as rampant as it is made out to be and that Pakistan is a safe place to live. Certainly, the elite/RAPE of Pakistan have made areas of Pakistan safe for themselves in the same way that the elite of India are able to take extra security measures in terms of checkpoints and surveillance. We sit here on BRF and say "
Ha ha ha - a sixer today! IED mubarak! 
" while the Paki says "
Oh Pakistan is not unsafe. We are having fashion shows and all"
So what makes Pakistan unstable and India stable?
In fact there was absolutely no talk of "instability" in Pakistan either in this thread or in God-land's media (US media) until the Paki government apparatus - read army brass and institutions started getting attacked. Even a war with India in 1999 and the fact that the PM Nawaz Sharif did not know what his army was doing and the PAF did not know what the army was doing did not count as "instability". A peaceful coup when Musharraf took over (goddamit there has been a friggin coup!) did not count as instability. In fact Musharraf's arrival was greeted as "more stability"
Ultimately "instability" started only when the writ of the so called "government of Pakistan" started being challenged. There were attempts to assassinate Musharraf, areas of Pakistan became no go areas for the Paki army, and the Pakistan army started revealing its inability or unwillingness to check "militants" who were attacking US forces. The hidden text here is that as long as the Pakistani government led by the army was safe and doing the US's bidding - Pakistan was declared "stable". Terrorism against India was not instability. Insane wars started with India and nuclear threats issued was not instability. An army coup was not instability. Instability was when the Pakistan army itself came under threat. US interests and elite interests are protected by the army. It does not matter how badly off or unhappy Abduls are, but as long as the elite control the armed forces and the armed forces are supreme, the elite are safe and the guests of the elite, such as the Americans are also safe.
Other than Naxalites we are not seeing a direct threat from the people of India against the Indian state or the security forces. But that is what is happening in Pakistan. There is a direct threat to the security forces from the people in Pakistan. What have Pakistanis done to deserve this? Has India done anything better than Pakistan to ensure that Indians en masse are not rising up in revolt to oppose the army and the government writ in large areas of India? The fact is that India too faces uprisings against the state and security forces. One set are the Naxalites and another set is in Kashmir. But India really has managed to pull off something better than Pakistan to ensure that by and large, Indians are not generating terrorists to attack targets within India.
The only thing that India has done better than Pakistan is overall human development. The other area in which India has scored is in reducing maldistribution. In Pakistan the army and the elite have cornered all the resources and have actually tried to perform geopolitical roles for the US and for themselves - and they have taken their population for granted. Pakistanis have taken islam and Muslims for granted and have assumed that if they say something is anti-Islamic - an entire population will keep on following their dictates forever. Time and again the RAPE/Army of Pakistan have lost battles - most of the suffering has been by Abduls, but the elite have survived. For the US it is cheap to pay off only the RAPE with a billion or two and get the RAPE to make their entire nation do their work.
This is the classic satrap system The US is the Sultan and Pakistani elite/RAPE are his satraps. The satraps make their Abduls do the work and pay in blood, while the Sultan pays the satrap. So when the Pakistani population goes into revolt, not only does the satrap suffer, the Sultan also cannot get his work done. What the satraps (Army/RAPE) are doing is to try and blame their inability on India and get the Sultan to blame India. And the Sultan (US) continues to pay and arm his faithful satraps.
History clearly shows that a tyrannical leadership can control entire populations for long periods of time using a loyal military coterie who are given a share of the loot. The Mughals did this. Papa doc, Pol Pot are other examples. The Shah of Iran too was an example like the Pakis. He and his elite forces reigned over Iran until overthrown by a people's popular mandate. The US has a long history of supporting a core elite and their military and not caring about the population. That is what the US has done with Pakistan. When the Paki RAPE are made to pay, both the US and the RAPE will pay. India will be an incidental casualty - caught in the crossfire.
India is militarily strong enough to withstand any number of Taliban. India finds it difficult to overthrow a Paki military RAPE combine who have the support of the US that gives them monetary and military support. The only thing hat will bring down the Paki RAPE/military combine supported by the US is an internal revolution. If there is going to be any sort of people's revolution in Pakistan, India must support that revolution. However since the Pakistan revolution is an "Islamic" one at heart - it can very easily be turned against India if India can be shown to be a villain. The Pak army/RAPE will get a fresh infusion of life and a few of the revolutionaries in Pakistan will temporarily turn their attention to India. For these reasons India's hands are tied in many ways. India's situation is unique. History can give us pointers but cannot guide us in our specific situation.
This is how I read our situation. To get back to where we started from - the India elite are not under threat from an internal Indian revolution. But the Pakistani elite are under just such a threat. They are under threat from the very forces they have used to hit India.