India-US News and Discussion

[Pranav]

First, the elites that were hand-picked by the departing colonialists looted their poverty-stricken countrymen, in the manner of Mugabe, Mobutu, Papa Doc and Baby Doc.

Saar you and I are no different from Haitians. Poor. Black. Underdeveloped. Impoverished. No clout. Only fractal recursivity (Slave takes on master's characteristics in front of fellow slave) can make one "Look down" on Haitians as if we are at same level as massa. Unless of course you have made it good and made your packet - in India or abroad. Then you are elite no? Half-massa. Haiti is brother country onlee.

"Good heavens! Haiti? " is an expression that gora saab can make. Not kaalu.

The was at our elites, who outdo even the likes of Mobutu or Papa Doc.

I agree that Yindoos are in the same boat as the Haitians. I am empathizing with them, not looking down on them.

[munna]

Behind every breath we take and every move we make (sorry to be cheesy) our motive is to become a developed nation. Now apparently there are two ways of going about it (a) Washington Consensus: A regimen of liberal polity combined with self-regulating or loosely regulated economy that puts emphasis on individual choice OR (b) Mos-jing Consensus: A regimen of totalitarian polity with little or no respect for individualism combined with command and control economy. Soviets tried the command and control with public sector while China is attempting it with a mix of public and private sector.

After independence we managed to somehow create a grotesque mix of both these policy regimen and arrived at the “Indian Way”. The “Indian Way” is defined by a suffused mix of competing interests that dictate the national policies and priorities and hence it leads to very dynamic polity albeit a reactionary one. Out system is conditioned towards being reactionary and hence throws up leaders and policies as a response to a situation and not as a result of some grand vision unlike others.

The Indo-Unkil relations need to be viewed in this regard! India’s alliance with US or even feeble attempts at the same was not some Chankian ploy by a mandarin in Dilli on the contrary it was the act of kowtowing to the undisputed hyper power of the world after the collapse of USSR. Hence gentlemen mark the point-our relations with US today are a conspiracy of circumstances, whereby USSR’s collapse forced us to look for new mai-baps on world stage. Couple this with the BOP crisis of 1990-92 and consequent opening up of Indian economy-we had NO option but to do “salaam” to Unkil. What is even more important is that even during those days of extreme haplessness we did not give up on our nuke program, held on to Kashmir (dark days), pacified Punjab, developed strategic systems and managed to feebly sustain the Northern Alliance in Afghanistan along with Russia. We capped the entire decade with a “Bum Bum Bhole” in 1998 and got sanctioned-theoretically speaking this act of ours should have been suicidal. Then why is it that barely 10 years after rocking the boat for Unkil we were handed over a De-Facto status of Nuke power? Or for that matter our economy-which should have been destroyed for good-yet we managed to accelerate the growth rates by 2004 to the 8% range! Where are the consequences of all that we did to unkil throughout the nineties? In fact as I see it the only party that went downhill since then is Bakland.

Since early 2000s India adopted a policy of restraint and outsourced the policing of the region to Unkil. Unkil was not a huge player in India till 9/11, after that we assumed that being common victims of terror Unkil would sympathize with us and maybe we had finally found a common ground to build our relation upon. A result of this was complete smugness in our attitude towards Bakis and the situation in Afghanistan. We came to believe the “Benign Hegemony” paradigm of 21st century whereby Unkil would deal with all the security related issues while we made merry in all things economic. The strategy was fine but eerily similar to off balance sheet exposures of shadow banks prior to the financial crisis.
For example (GO)I may have observed that investing in a particular instrument (khan) could beget some phenomenal returns (I know that since my neighbor/Mr Cheng on Rodeo drive got the same for past three years). So (GO)I went ahead and concluded a nudge nudge and wink wink investment deal with the instrument seller in lieu of promises of phenomenal returns. However, the caveat was that everything (deal) was off the balance sheets and hence outside the regulator’s purview. Now this investment of mine bore fruit in initial few months and I became really elated at having the smarts to follow my neighbors and do as they did to reap good rewards. Just when everything seemed fine tragedy struck and the instrument seller discovered some home truths about itself. Under this Black Swan event the instrument seller decided to shaft me and use my neighbor to help sort out the in-house mess. Since nothing was promised in writing I had none but myself to blame. Bewildered me and my entire management went into “whatdawegonnado whatdawegonnado” mode. Well friends the story as of now is stuck in that mode for India too.

The thrust of my argument is that we want to ally with Unkil but we don’t have enough common ground. We do not have anything substantial to offer-plain and simple and unkil knows that. Realpolitik 101
Ekla cholo re!

[shiv]

In my view the choices are to ally with unkil or kowtow to unkil. We can choose to fight unkil also but - India can fight unkil if it likes. I am elite anyway - i will get my benefits even if India adds unkil to its list of enemies along with Pakistan and China. Who cares? My friends and relatives - safely ensconced in the US will bail me out after which I can write teary articles about the India that was.

We don't need the US as an enemy. The US gets zilch from us as a friend, and can handle us cheap via its whore if we oppose unkil. Heads I lose. Tails unkil wins.

What does dignity mean? Starvation?

[Prem]

Take what is good from Unkil and dont touch which is bad and India will be ok in long run . But to do this, our netass must see beyond their nostrils.

[munna]

What does dignity mean? Starvation?

Hmm that is a toughie! Starvation may happen without dignity too as was the case in imperial times. People here will better elaborate on Bengal famines.The key here is to maintain a policy of

"Kabira Khada Bazaar Main Maange Sabki Khair
Na Kahu Se Dosti Na Kahu Se Bair"
"Kabira stands at crossroads and asks for everyone's good.
He ain't a friend and nor an enemy"

We need to scale up and realize efficiency gains from governance reforms. Like I said before Governance reforms will send shock waves through all capitals.

[Nihat]

There is nothing so deeply complicated about Indo-US relations that it becomes a zero sum game. All it needs is for the top polity to stand up for themselves and for the entire nation.

The US was fighting in Afghanistan in 2002 as well as 2009 and how pathetic is it for us that the main perceived reason we did not hit TSP was because of US preassure.

Unkil has respect for China and it dare not interfere in China's internal politics, it needs China inspite of all the trade, currency, Internet, religious freedom issues. PRC does not allow it's foreign policy to be dictated by the U.S. and neither should we. IF we want to deal with TSP then we do so at our own terms. TSP has taken advantage of this complex arrangement to provoke us twice and established that this policy will work.

We don't need to be a 10 trillion economy to be able to manage our own foreign policy as we deem fit.

[shiv]

There is one segment of India - let me call it "middle India" for want of a better word. that depends on the US is many ways.

Typically the wealthiest in India travel to and from the US at will and no skin off their noses. The bottom 800 million have no chance of getting anywhere near the US. That leaves "middle India" for whom the US is aspirational. Going to the US - emigrating for good is a matter of pride. It is often essential to visit the US or get a job in the US to raise one's value in the marriage market.

Indians are hooked to the US. Indians ape America and yearn to be like America. But hey so what's new? Everyone in every turd world country feels that way. That is why the US is leader.

What can India give the US? Oil? Diamonds? Security? Money?

Zilch. Nada. Nothing. We all want Amrika, But we want to give nothing. We are Indians no? We want Amrika, but want to retain our "pride". we want "respect" from Amrika. we want equal equal. We want seat at high table. We want bum. We want to oppose Amirkhan policy even as we want Amrikhan things and green card. We want to oppose China. We want everything that America has. What do we have to give?

[Prem]

Nihat, TSP with what, per common knowledge ,there was/is not enough Artillery . The GOI deliberate policy of keeping armed forces under certain preparedness level rules our such option. Economic warfare is the one which Paki fear most and it also raise cost for 3.5 Massars. Just the imagined apprehensions about Dam building by India has made Paki do Inner Pakistani act every minute. The more they beg from Auliyas, more they get sold to them and more agaitated aam AbDull become ,ready to kill less pious in LOPExcretea. Pak is a "tool" used by others, break the tool and make power behind toothless/toolless.

[munna]

Zilch. Nada. Nothing. We all want Amrika, But we want to give nothing. We are Indians no? We want Amrika, but want to retain our "pride". we want "respect" from Amrika. we want equal equal. We want seat at high table. We want bum. We want to oppose Amirkhan policy even as we want Amrikhan things and green card. We want to oppose China. We want everything that America has. What do we have to give?

I could not have put it better even if I wanted to! Due to our systemic flaws/values/eccentricities/location we don't have much to offer to king khan. This thing is coming to hit us now, maybe this relation has run its course and would not deviate much from these levels-unless we produce a game changer.

[shiv]

Unkil has respect for China and it dare not interfere in China's internal politics,.

Unkil has never stopped being scathing of China's record on rights. Unkil has always been critical of China's political system. Unkil sits right next door to China in Japan, Taiwan and Korea with Unkils weapons aimed at China.

China blows hot and cold about Taiwan. What stopped China from taking over Taiwan when unkil was tied down by 2 wars - Iraq and Afghanistan? Maybe it was the same thing that stopped India from hitting Pakistan no?

[pgbhat]

What can India give the US? Oil? Diamonds? Security? Money?

Zilch. Nada. Nothing. We all want Amrika, But we want to give nothing. We are Indians no? We want Amrika, but want to retain our "pride". we want "respect" from Amrika. we want equal equal. We want seat at high table. We want bum. We want to oppose Amirkhan policy even as we want Amrikhan things and green card. We want to oppose China. We want everything that America has. What do we have to give?

What to do? Banias are kunjoos and Brahmins are cunning.

[Prem]

War is a rich man's "tool", we must hit TSP under the belt and keep hitting till it become impotant and broken tool for others to use . Instead of spending 20-30 Billions on 2 week war, spend 2-3 billion a years to fix Paki problem and pay them baxk in Paki way. This also buy us managable decade to put our own,governmetal, political, economic and social house in order.

[svinayak]

What to do? Banias are kunjoos and Brahmins are cunning.

We are bania brahmin combination.

[Sumeet]

Really loved the tone of Mr Raman as much as the content of the article. He has picked on BRF favorites.

http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/%5Cpap ... r3726.html

All Governments indulge in spin. One should not, therefore, blame the Government of Dr.Manmohan Singh for indulging in spin in the case of David Coleman Headley, of the Chicago cell of the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET), and for trying to mislead the hapless Indian public with the help of obliging journalists that the plea bargain entered into by the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) with Headley was not a setback, but a great triumph for Indian diplomacy.

2. We might not have succeeded in getting him extradited in the Mumbai 26/11 case, says bravely Home Secretary G.K.Pillai, but the option of getting him extradited in other cases is still open. What other cases?

3. We will keep trying, says Home Minister P.Chidambaram. And, in the meanwhile, more Indians will keep dying at the hands of the terrorists.

4. "Four Reasons Why India is Smiling" says "The Times of India" of diminishing credibility. Why India is smiling according to the whiz kids of the TOI? For the first time LET's links with Al Qaeda being underscored in a US Court. Oh really? The first time a clandestine cell of the LET was detected in the US was in 2003 when George Bush was the President. The FBI arrested a number of American nationals of Pakistani, Saudi and other origin and charged them with waging war against India from US territory.

5. What is the second reason for India's smile visible only to the TOI and not to many of us? "The threat of execution will hang over him." Oh really? Under the US law once the FBI renounces its right to demand death penalty in a case it cannot go back on its commitment whatever be the new evidence.

6. What is the third reason for the smile? India can interrogate Headley even if he is not extradited. Another gem from the TOI. Interrogation is done in your custody. Otherwise, it is meaningless. Yes, under the plea bargain Indian investigators can question him in FBI's custody. The FBI officer will decide the relevance of the questions.

7. The fourth reason for India's smile so visible to the TOI? India's case against the LET has become stronger. So what? Will India be able to get Pro.Hafeez Mohammad Sayeed, the Amir of the LET, arrested and prosecuted by Pakistan? Will India be able to see that Pakistan dismantles the LET infrastructure in Pakistani territory? Will India be able to prevent another 26/11? Then of what use India's case against the LET becoming stronger?

8. The "Hindu". the other daily of no credibility, has come out with its own gem. Says N.Ram, the precious son of the Tamil soil and our own unique contribution to the world of Indian journalism: " Barring death penalty enthusiasts, no one has any reason to bemoan the Plea Agreement".

9.Oh,oh.oh,oh Mr.Ram. It has got nothing to do with death penalty. It has got everything to do with Pakistan's continued use of the LET to kill hundreds of innocent Indians. Our investigation into 26/11 runs on two parallel tracks----- the responsibility of the LET, which the Pakistanis project as a non-State actor with which the State of Pakistan has nothing to do and the responsibility of the State of Pakistan. What the US has sought to achieve through the choreographed plea bargain is that while India will be able to highlight the responsibility of the LET, it will not be able to establish the responsibility of the State of Pakistan. The Obama Administration wants the world to perceive 26/11 as the crime of a non-state actor as claimed by Pakistan and not the crime of the State of Pakistan. That is the real issue here.

10.What did Headley know according to the FBI's own court affidavits?

* He knew Ilyas Kashmiri of the 313 Brigade, who is close to Osama bin Laden and who recently threatened to attack the IPL cricket matches and the Commonwealth Games. Headley had met him in North Waziristan in the beginning of 2009.

* He knew many office-bearers of the LET whose identities the FBI has not revealed.
* He knew many serving and retired officers of the Pakistan Army.

11. What he must be knowing?

* The identities of the many contacts he made in India during his repeated visits.
* The identities of the sleeper cells of the LET, which have not yet come to the notice of the Indian investigators. If the FBI had allowed us to question Headley in time, we might have been able to prevent the Pune blast of February 13 if it had been planned by the LET or its Indian associates.

12. The FBI had seen to it that we will not be able to find out all this by independently interrogating Headley. It is a great tragedy and speaks eloquently of the decay of our sense of national self-respect that instead of having the spine to stand up to the US and protest loud and clear over the FBI's shutting out access to Headley, we are indulging in more spins to project what has happened as a triumph for Indo-US cooperation over which we should smile and not cry.

13. The Obama Administration has been repeatedly kicking us in the back.It did so in respect of Afghanistan. It has done so in respect of Headley. Instead of having the courage and intellectual honesty to admit to our people that we have been let down nastily by the US, we are indulging in more spins to project the kicks as, in fact, boquets from Obama with love.

14.Dear Dr.Manmohan Singh, Dear Shri Chidambaram, Dear Shri Pillai, Dear Shri Ram, Dear whiz-kids of ToI : Some weeks ago Mulla Baradar, supposedly No.2 in the Afghan Taliban, was arrested by the ISI in Karachi.He is in the ISI's custody. The US and Afghan intelligence wanted independent access to him for interrogation. The ISI refused and told them he could be questioned in the ISI's custody. The US insisted on independent access and warned Pakistan of the likely consequences if it did not agree to it. This week's reports say that Pakistan has been forced to allow independent access to the Americans.

15. That is the way a self-respecting nation protects its interests and nationals. For the US, independent interrogation of Baradar was necessary to hold those responsible for American deaths in the past accountable and to prevent more deaths in future. It insisted on it and had its way.

16. India is not the US. The clout which it has over Pakistan we do not have anywhere in the world. At least we could have had the courage to protest---- loudly and openly--- instead of projecting every stab in the back by Obama as a kiss in the back.

17. Annexed is an article titled "PM in the US: The Spin and the Fizzle" written by me on November 30,2009.

18. The spin continues. The more the spins, the more will be the fizzles.

[shiv]

War is a rich man's "tool", we must hit TSP under the belt

One way to hit it below the belt is to wean away its main sponsor who loves Pakistan because they have given them the sense of security they want. When America fears for its safety and worries about its weakness - of all people - Pakis are right up there reassuring them.

India can play the game of reassuring the US and hold US hand in its worst hour, but it requires pretending that we are supportive of their main ally. We had one opportunity to hold US hand in 2001, but we were more swatantrata minded than Pakistan. We would not give them bases. Pakistan which gave them bases and support after one threat was a much more useful ally to the US in its time of need.

Recall the discussions at that time. We were talking about how giving away bases to the US is giving away sovereignty. None of us had the Chankian vision that the Pakis had. They gave them bases and then threatened to close them down and cut off supply routes. They also made the US pledge support and got the US to rescue all their men and material from Kunduz. And throughout Pakistan's "occupation" by the US, Pakistan never gave up on its "core interests"

Indian democracy does not trust the fellow Indian not to sell out. We are a stuffy and paranoid nation who do not know the real meaning of friendship and alliance. We are isolationists. Non commitalists. Our inability to involve in geopolitical alliances is not "independent thinking" but paranoia and a dense inability to understand how nations relate to each other.

The argument against "allying" with the US like Pakistan is "Do you want Americans crawling all over India? Controlling the airports? Flying its drones in your territory?" You don't?. Well then you have nothing to whine about when the US offers Pakistan 2 or more billion dollars a year, F-16s, AMRAAMs, a nuclear deal for nothing and promises to help out with all its problems.

What are you giving to the US other that a long whine list? Pakistan has outrageous demands and a longer whine list. But they are delivering things that are politically expedient for the President of the day. It was politically expedient for Bush to sit in Afghanistan searching for Osammy. It is politically expedient for Obama to pull out leaving the Pakis with a thank you, money and arms and a promise to handle India if it causes trouble.

By having a hand around Pakistan's balls the US has a hand around India's balls. But Pakistan gets a grip on one US ball in return. India does not even get that. Cursing the US and not dealing with them ain't gonna help more than sending dossiers. How stupid are we as a nation? Where was Chanakya? Where are we?

[Airavat]

We had one opportunity to hold US hand in 2001, but we were more swatantrata minded than Pakistan. We would not give them bases.

The NDA government offered bases immediately after the 9/11 attacks, which partly forced kammandu's hand in Islamabad. In the absence of the NDA's public offer, he would have tried to secure some concessions for helping the US.

Our inability to involve in geopolitical alliances is not "independent thinking" but paranoia and a dense inability to understand how nations relate to each other.

How stupid are we as a nation?

Not "we" but the UPA aka Congress(I) which sought to reverse the NDA's foreign policy.

[arnab]

We had one opportunity to hold US hand in 2001, but we were more swatantrata minded than Pakistan. We would not give them bases.

The NDA government offered bases immediately after the 9/11 attacks, which partly forced kammandu's hand in Islamabad. In the absence of the NDA's public offer, he would have tried to secure some concessions for helping the US.

Our inability to involve in geopolitical alliances is not "independent thinking" but paranoia and a dense inability to understand how nations relate to each other.

How stupid are we as a nation?

Not "we" but the UPA aka Congress(I) which sought to reverse the NDA's foreign policy.

Sir these things have to be managed. Look how UPA managed to get the nuke deal done despite opposition from NDA and the left.

[ramana]

And even Mushy told Rediff that "India ne hamara khel khatam kiya!" about the bases being offered by India. Circa 24 Sept 2001.

[munna]

Let us pause here and not be too harsh on ourselves. Post-independence India has come to stand for something and that something is to stick out like a sore thumb internationally. Last post by Shiv led me to an "aha" moment! Maybe there is a method to our madness and other people have realized it before we have.

I will start my case from the basic adage of "horses for courses", all countries have a basic temperament that they live by and behave. India differs from Pakistan and China otherwise we all would have been pakis or chinese-clearly we are not! Just as everyone cannot be an engineer or a musician similarly nations cannot mimic other nations at drop of a hat. Big deal! You might retort-what use is a "temperament" if we remain a blighted land of poorest on earth? Beggars cannot be choosers and hence India should lie "dandavat" before other powers and hope to be showered with some goodies. Well the fact is that "temperament" is tough to correlate with the level of prosperity and well being of your population. In fact it may be uncorrelated to our socio-economic problems.

Anyways that is besides the point-given the fact that India has repeatedly displayed an isolationist streak despite the obvious harms, what gives? Why did we shuttle between US and USSR in the 1960s and then landed in USSR's lap (but again maintaining our H&D by taking "panga" time to time)? After the Soviet collapse we kept our tails low for a decade and then joined the Unkil camp (but not quite joined it you see). What explains our eccentric behavior? Why don't we just agree to whatever that Unkil says and be done with it? Why are we so vain and slaves to flattery? "Emerging super-power, BRICs, Security Council seat, nuke bum, gola barood and multi-trillion economy yada yada"-all of these buzz words tend to tingle the collective conscious of our dear nation. Why?

My thought on all of these are as follows

1) Lost glory: Deep down within all Indians believe that we had something unique and glorious in our past that we lost irresponsibly during the middle and modern ages. The chief villains of the piece behind this lost glory as per the legends circulating amongst vast number of junta were foreigners-be it the Afghans, Iranians, Turks or the British. Unkil to most of us is a successor empire to all the previously witnessed furriners and needs to be cautiously kept at arms length. The common sense and practical data points are counter intuitive to our civilizational experiences. Hence while dealing with external powers we have and we will continue to suffer from split personality disorder until we manage to erase the past scars or reclaim some of the lost ground

2) Division of India: Again India and Indians have harbored strong ill will on the account of country's partition. We continue to believe that without western support Pakiland would not have come into existence. Its another thing that we have Indians gullible enough to believe that pakis wanted to live with us . Western governments came to symbolize perfidy and support to pak for most of us. This takes some time to go away, I call it "Hostility Hysteresis".

3) Continued support to all sorts of clowns in and against India: Unkil, UK and Canada supported all sorts of challenges to India's integrity. Heck even I cannot forget the Khalistani Dollars mailed to my family after being printed in Canada. The open collection of funds for Kashmir insurgency in UK and the duplicity during Kanishka bombing is not something that lies forgotten and trashed. The memories and experiences are alive and kicking.

4) Yearning to be a "Big Boy" once again: This is the crux of the issue. We want to be a big boy and go into multiple orgasms when someone utters Indian and power in the same sentence. Our aspirations do not allow us to be a poodle while our capabilities remain poodle like. Other nations realize that India aspires for great power status. We are aiming to be in the top tier of nations and willing to pay short term costs for it. When other developing countries were barely coming out of clutches of colonialism we were establishing our nuclear and space programs. We were laughed at for attempting rich nation like scientific and industrial progress. We have had thinkers and dreamers who have kept India alive and active in most of the frontiers of human accomplishment. But we have failed too, we have failed badly in reforming governance and that has had a negative impact on human development and distributive justice within India. For removing poverty and deprivation unkil is neither a necessary nor a sufficient condition but definitely a desirable one. An entente with unkil will only go so far till our independence and streak of fierce individualism is preserved, after that it will hit against the systemic brakes and flounder.


Net net we are in liquid Oxygen. Liquid will not let us live and Oxygen won't let us pass away either. Our past tells to not ally with external powers, our current is mired in our bumbling polity and bad blood and our future aspiration are too high to let us crawl.

Dekhi Jayegi

[Prem]

Munna ji, IMHO its not yearning for being big boy but have the power to correct past wrongs and protect future generation. No indians want to leave their kids to future where they have to face the islamst barbarians or British B..S again. Of course, current forces symbolising these 2 phenomenons know this too thus they push back on every occasion. But as you said, Dekhage. Time approacheth soon when these BCs lay prostrate in front of us. We have the momentum and its onlee gonna gather pace. Many talk about Pathani badla , wait till ours be known. Borrow the famous Ghara ( Clay pot) of 80s, keep putting the "parchis"/ tickets in the pot and when right time come take them out one by one to put them on train to neitherworld. We are at the historical crossroad , luck will be with us if we exploit the oppertunity.

[Kati]

Obama admin gives a grand welcome to Kiyani

http://www.telegraphindia.com/1100325/j ... 259941.jsp

[shiv]

In terms of bases for the US in 2001 - I must admit that India's hand was always weak. The US deftly played the "India card" at Pakistan. "If you don't give us bases and cooperation, India will give us the bases and we will bomb the crap out of you. I must not fault the NDA for not trying. But let me point out something in common with both the NDA and the UPA. In their own way - in ways that they can call "their own party initiatives" both parties have increased cooperation with the US. It would IMO be disingenuous to call the cooperation by the NDA as "strategic" and the cooperation by the UPA as a sellout. That is an internal political debate and has little to do with the fact that both parties have read the writing on the wall.

Here is a table of what "South Asia" is doing. I have taken the liberty of including Afghanistan



If you look at Indian poverty, Indian literacy and Indian development, it pretty much reflects the rest of the region. No country comes out as a shining exception. Having said that India still offers the "greatest hope" for the future in having the largest land area and largest mass of people under stable political control for the longest period of time in the last 75 years.

Whichever way you look at it - ie whether you look at South Asia as a region, or whether you look at any individual country as "representative of South Asia" their future requirements are clearly cut out. There can be no ambiguity. The only "hope for the future" lies in

• Population control
  Development
  Education
  Jobs

While "Poverty" and "population" are quoted as the most "important" problems of the region - the real fact is that the most dangerous problems of the region that take the focus away from population control and development are
1) Great power rivalry
2) Islamic extremism

I have deliberately placed great power rivalry first because that has had a bearing both on the creation of Pakistan (as a British client state to thwart Russian expansionism) and the support of Pakistan as a US client in continuing the anti-Russia game. For nearly a century the placing of Islam and Muslims on a pedestal as great fighters who are allies of the Western world has not only screwed the Indian subcontinent - it has shoved a great big danda up the backside of the entire ummah who have been hoodwinked into believing that they are great fighters who will control the world and bring order - when all that the ummah has done is kowtow to the Western powers. The silly jackasses. A billion jackasses. How about that?

If you look at that table - you will find that the ummah head the list of underdeveloped jackasses, and they also head the list of people doing work for the US, fighting Russia (Communists) fighting India (Hindus) and fighting each other (for purity). It is remarkable that the entire Islamic world have been made into jackasses by the simple control of Islamic wealth by buying up KSA and Islamic "technology" by making the Pakistani army the servant of the USA and feeding it with weapons and even nukes to keep them in control but happy.

It is fortunate that Pakistan is a separate country. The future of Pakistan cannot be tied up with the future of India. India must do what it needs to do. That is to develop.

Pakistan is the culmination of a century of great power encouragement of Islamic extremist ideology. Britain and the US have used Jackass islamic Pakistanis to say "Fight the infidel Soviet", "Fight the Kafir Indians. You are great fighters. You are like us. You die and get jannat. We get to live on"

As part of development India needs to tell its own Muslims to understand what jackasses the ummah have been in frittering away everything in fighting someone else's wars. Let Pakistan continue doing that. Not India.

At the same time India must engage the US. A third of the subcontinent's Muslims are in India. and by and large they have been kept from becoming jackasses for the west. Whatever the US does, we do not need the US as an enemy. If the US helps us with arms to fight China. So be it. If the US chooses to keep arming its Muslim slaves the Pakistani army, We have to be ready to finish off that army. The US needs to remain involved in the AfPak region - but if that involvement is anti India the US's Muslim slaves will be punished with US arms if need be. We need not keep off US arms to punish the US's Islamic jackasses.

[shiv]

If the entire ummah have been made into jackasses, we can have a toss up to see who is the biggest jackass of them all.

The US has used the ummah (via the Slave army of Pakistan) to fight the infidel Soviet Union
The Slave Army of Pakistan is using the ummah to fight the Dirty Kafirs of India
he "Al Qaeda" is using the ummah to fight the great satan, America.

The ummah is the biggest condom of them all. But the Pakistan army takes the first prize for using the ummah as condom to fight the Soviets and the Indians while protecting US interests.

In a sense the US is up shit creek in supporting the Islamic slave army of Pakistan. But the US is good at bribing someone or the other to lift itself out of shit creek. So let's see.

[munna]

No indians want to leave their kids to future where they have to face the islamst barbarians or British B..S again. Of course, current forces symbolising these 2 phenomenons know this too thus they push back on every occasion

Premji we are the ultimate comeback kids. We shall feed every mouth, clad every body and educate every mind. That will be the sweetest of all "badlas". "Rak Karega Khalsa Aki Rahe Na Koi, Khwar Hoye Sab Milangey Bache Sharan Jo Hoye"-Guru Maharaj will not be let down! I am glad that instead of debating about thullas like Paks we are gradually realizing the real source of power and beginning to think about our terms of engagement with it.

[shiv]

Cross post.

This article has many of the elements discussed in this therad

Hard to separate terrorism and Pakistani nukes - Ambassador Howard Schaffer & Tereseita Schaffer

[Rudradev]

There is an abject and rather pathetic fantasy being purveyed on this thread that India can "wean away" the US from Pakistan by "engaging it" along "avenues of common interest".

Reality-- not just our own historical reality of decades past, but everywhere in the current globe-- flies in the face of this thinly spread fiction.

One of the avenues for "engagement" being proposed is economic engagement, for instance making large purchases of armaments and nuclear reactors from the US.

One need look no further than China to realize how flimsy this argument is. China has a GDP four times the size of ours. It has a volume of trade with the US more than ten times the size of ours. China has managed to gain a certain amount of economic leverage with the US as a result of this. But it should not escape our notice that the US has gained a corresponding, or even greater degree of economic leverage over China... also as a result of this.

Chinese exports depend on access to the US market, and Chinese industry will suffer most if the Chinese are denied access to that market. China holds a large amount of US debt in dollars; which means that if the dollar slides, the value of China's holdings slides as well. Meanwhile the ground reality is that the American economy still dwarfs that of China... so in any exchange of economic barbs the Chinese will bleed to death long before the Americans even flinch. No retaliatory measure the Chinese can take, would hurt the US nearly a fraction as much as it would hurt China.

But all that aside, the key question here is... what leverage has China gained over the US from such "engagement" in terms of ensuring its strategic security?

None at all. Taiwan still continues to be propped up by the US with the most sophisticated weapons, and the US has made clear that it will intervene on Taiwan's behalf in any conflict with China. Beijing cannot even proscribe meetings between the US President and the Dalai Lama... someone they consider a dangerous separatist. They must grudgingly deal with the "world leader" status bestowed on the Dalai Lama as a consequence.

In view of this, is there any hope in hell of India "weaning away" the US from Pakistan by means of "engagement"? Pakistan offers the US far, far more than India could ever hope to replace by any sort of "engagement". For that matter it offers far more to the US in terms of geopolitical access, and in terms of willingness to play rentier state, than Taiwan ever will.

It would be suicidal for India to create any kind of dependency on the US in key sectors of strategic security interest: including power-generating nuclear reactors and armaments. There is no question that the US will use those points of engagement as fulcrums of leverage against us whenever it suits them, and we won't be able to do a damn thing about it. Right now we may be relatively powerless to harm the US... but the last thing we want to do in that situation is give the US more levers with which to inflict harm against us.

Even the Pakis suffered enormously (post Pressler and post the nuclear tests) as a result of the US turning off the tap with respect to mil-tech, and blacklisting Pakistani entities. And the Pakis are literally willing to sell their anuses to the US. The Chinese may not buy American weapons but they certainly buy US reactors; this hasn't won them any leverage over America's continued bolstering of Taiwan.

"Engagement" with the US need not be restricted to the economic sphere, but it hasn't served other nations very well even when they have gone far beyond that.

What is the most India can offer the US, as per Robert Blackwill's rhetorical questions? Send troops to Iraq or other "coalition of the willing" military adventures? What good did that do to Shalikashvili when, despite the thousands of Georgian troops serving in Iraq, the Russians decided to give Georgia a resounding slap and the US did not lift a finger?

We must realize that the US has no allies... only poodles, and it sometimes neglects to give dog food to even those.

Trade with America by all means, in areas that do not impact our strategic security. Cooperate with America in areas of mutual interest, narrowly defined as they will necessarily be... such as clearing out pirates from the Somali coast or the Malacca straits. Any more than that and we are setting ourselves up for wh0redom. Even in our most immediate neighbourhood, American interests and ours are entirely contradictory... so what is the hope that any of this can be addressed with "engagement"?

Even within the present GOI, only Dr. Extra-Mile Walking Sleep Loser and his cabal continue to pretend that any such hope exists.

[Airavat]

http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/%5Cpap ... r3726.html

Dr.Manmohan Singh for indulging in spin in the case of David Coleman Headley, of the Chicago cell of the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET), and for trying to mislead the hapless Indian public with the help of obliging journalists.

The Obama Administration has been repeatedly kicking us in the back.It did so in respect of Afghanistan. It has done so in respect of Headley.

Dear Dr.Manmohan Singh, Dear Shri Chidambaram, Dear Shri Pillai, Dear Shri Ram, Dear whiz-kids of ToI :

That is the way a self-respecting nation protects its interests and nationals. For the US, independent interrogation of Baradar was necessary to hold those responsible for American deaths in the past accountable and to prevent more deaths in future.

B Raman, who ripped the UPA and its looney supporters a new one on the Headley issue, suggests that the American, Israeli, and Indian relatives of the Mumbai attack victims should petition Congressmen in the US on the plea bargain.

[shiv]

this thinly spread fiction.

One of the avenues for "engagement" being proposed is economic engagement, for instance making large purchases of armaments and nuclear reactors from the US.

One need look no further than China to realize how flimsy this argument is.

I will admit that this argument is pretty flimsy rudradevji

The comparison with China is meaningless. China bought nothing from the US and reactors and weapons are not on offer. China however bandwagoned with the US against the Soviet Union and used its workforce to produce goods that the US bought. With China now sitting on a load of US$ - It suits them both to cooperate. China has a grip on US testimonials. The US is capable of returning the compliment.

India is a joke. We have no influence on the US. Indians are too scared to deal with the US. The US can still screw us via a condom.

What would make the US cooperate with India? Not the spirit of panchsheel surely? More paranoia? More pointless whining and asking Botswana and Lesotho for support for high seat at high table? "Taking out" Pakistan? Growing spine? Steel knees? PM with haircut and no bangles? Firm stand? Deep voice? More sleep? More fear of cutting deals with the real big boys?

[Philip]

Txx Sumeet for posting Raman's forthright analysis which shows up our leaders as being spineless,duplicitous and self-seeking.No wonder that the Pakis keep on using terror against us.They know our top leadership are spinelss jellyfish who only want their precious backsides protected (12 VVIP helos ordered in extreme haste at exorbitant cost,while the truly urgent LOH decision was withdrawn because of US pressure) and cosseted.It is also why the Maoists,despite their bloodthirsty methods still have support from the lowest strata of society,who have nothing to lose because of the indifference and villainy of the state (politicos).The Pakis and the US know that even if an Indian nuclear reactor is attacked by paki terrorists,it is most unlikely that under the good spin-doctor of India,we will effectively go to war with Pak.

The rape of India as it was done centuries ago is on the cards as long as the vermin who rule the roost and have no self-respect as Indians remain in control.

[Mort Walker]

Shivji,

You've pointed out some interesting facts, but lets consider the following:

US-India trade is $45 billion in goods + $10 billion in BPO services = $55 billion
US-China trade is $450 billion in goods alone.
US-Japan trade is $200 billion in goods alone.

In order for the US to treat India as 2nd world status, this trade level including goods and services has to be at US-Japan trade levels. Then, and only then, will US elected officials give a damn about Indian interests. In the mean time, there will be a lot self-flagellation, but it won't help anyone. The goal is get there - and it will but it may be by 2020 or later, I don't know, but it will happen as India's GDP doubles every 5-7 years. Until then Indian leaders will be ineffective on the international scene, but its important to keep the house in proper order and go about the work that needs to be done.

[svinayak]

this thinly spread fiction.

One of the avenues for "engagement" being proposed is economic engagement, for instance making large purchases of armaments and nuclear reactors from the US.

One need look no further than China to realize how flimsy this argument is.

Good post as usual.
China has been part of the US geopolitical support alliance for a long time. Supporting PRC trade was the top priority for US for the last 40 years. US supported and made sure that PRC was admitted to WTO even though it was not a free market economy.

[Malayappan]

Obama admin gives a grand welcome to Kiyani

http://www.telegraphindia.com/1100325/j ... 259941.jsp

That link has many interesting tidbits. For those who did not read through -

Otero, whose experience in political diplomacy prior to her job as an Obama nominee for her very senior state department post is zero, was asked about US mediation in Indo-Pak water disputes.“I think we’re beginning to do that,” she replied. “And indeed, (it is) part of the discussion that is going on, we are quite aware (of what) is between the two countries.”
She added that in the Obama administration, there “is the recognition of water as a potential source of conflict in our elevated effort to address it with greater priority than we have in the past”.
Luckily, secretary of state Hillary Clinton stepped in almost immediately and prevented New Delhi from going into a tailspin

The Obama administration arranged to have the opening ceremonies broadcast live to Pakistan. On the eve of the talks, on Pakistan Day, Clinton declared in video messages in Urdu, Pashto and English that “Pakistan is close to my heart”.
Obama went as far as to say that “Muhammad Ali Jinnah and those of the independence generation declared their dreams of self-determination and democracy”, a reference that Pakistan may well misrepresent in the coming days as a US endorsement by extension of the idea of self-determination for Kashmiris

as a seasoned soldier, Kayani’s true objective in advocating the idea of a nuclear deal will be to deflect the arguments here in support of taking control of and eliminating Islambad’s nuclear programme and, instead, getting some iron-clad assurances that Pakistan can keep its bomb.

Worth a read!

[Malayappan]

Raman Sir writing in WSJ on Headley affair and how it is damaging US - India relationship
An Antiterror Rift

[Philip]

The Clinton woman referred Pakistan as not just as a friend or ally ,but as "family" in her latest remarks reported in today's media pages.Since Pak is now family,India a "non-family" member,a complete reversal of Indo_US relations should be prepared for as the US will now exclude India from all "family" matters and pursue a policy detrimental to India.War clouds are inevitable in the future thanks to Uncle Samand Aunty Clinton.

[shukla]

US nuclear companies missing out in India

companies including Westinghouse and GE-Hitachi are stuck at a red light awaiting legislation in New Delhi that would limit their liabilities in the event of an accident.In the meantime, their Russian and French competitors are mopping up deals with India's government, which is desperate to increase electricity generation to ease blackouts that regularly paralyse large parts of the country.

"We are yet to see investment from US firms since these are all privately owned and will not be able to invest till there is nuclear liability legislation framework existing in India," said Rajesh Menon, who heads the Confederation of Indian Industry's power and energy office.

In a further blow last week, Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh had to backtrack from submitting the draft nuclear liability law in parliament because of fierce political objections.The opposition has targeted clauses that hold the Indian operator, and not foreign equipment suppliers, responsible for any accidents. Compensation claims are also capped at five billion rupees (100 million dollars).Lalit Mansingh, former Indian ambassador to Washington, said Russia and France were unconcerned by the absence of the law since their companies were state-owned.
"So in the event of a claim, they are covered by their governments," he said.

France's Areva signed a draft accord with the state-run Nuclear Power Corporation of India in February last year to sell two to six reactors, worth an estimated four to six billion euros (5.2-7.8 billion dollars) each. And earlier this month, India's old Cold War ally Russia, which is already building two nuclear reactors in southern India, won a huge new deal for state-owned Rosatom to construct at least a dozen more in the next decade.S.K. Malhotra, spokesman for the Department of Atomic Energy which oversees the signing of all deals, stressed the Russian and French companies were not being "favoured"."The only considerations are whether the firm can provide us with the best technology and the cheapest power that we can sell to our people," he said.

[arun]

India to write to US for access to Headley

X Posted.

The battle to get Pakistani origin terrorist Daood Gilani aka David coleman Headley is going to be a long and bruising one as the US has practice at shielding terrorists.

Take the case of the terrorist Luis Posada Carrilles.

The association of Luis Posada Carrilles with the CIA and FBI besides the fact that his terrorism targeted long time US bête noire Cuba and more recent US bête noire Venezuela, has ensured a long and tortuous path just to bring the terrorist to trial in the US.

The foregoing should be a pointer on what the US could dish out to India notwithstanding protestations of combating global terrorism together.

Check out the declassified documents available at the National Security Archives website maintained by George Washington University which establishes the prior knowledge of the CIA and FBI of the career Luis Posada Carrilles’ in International Terrorism and his connections to U.S:

LUIS POSADA CARRILES : THE DECLASSIFIED RECORD

[arun]

The New York Times on the fall out in India of the US plea bargain with Pakistani origin terrorist Daood Gilani aka David Coleman Headley:

Letter from India

Suspicions Over Attacks Keep India Sensitive

By AKASH KAPUR
Published: March 25, 2010

………………………. in Mumbai last week, I had the distinct sense that, real or imagined, public perceptions of the case have begun to erode the fount of good will toward the United States so assiduously built up over the last decade. It has been years since I’ve been part of so many conversations, or read so many articles, that cast aspersions on the United States and its motivations.

Adding to the disenchantment is a more general sense that the Obama administration, desperate to cut a deal with the Taliban, is increasingly turning to Pakistan for help.

In many ways, it seems the complex geopolitics of this region have come full circle. For years, it was Pakistan that accused Washington of being a fickle ally. Now, there is growing apprehension that it is India’s turn to be sold out.

As Barkha Dutt, one of India’s leading TV journalists, wrote in an op-ed piece: “There is growing disquiet over whether the United States is a serious partner in India’s fight against terrorism. ... The Obama administration’s changing Af-Pak policy already appears to be that of a government that doesn’t have India on its mind. The Headley mystery may just take the simmering discontent to boiling point.”

NYT

[putnanja]

India lets US know: F-16s for Pak could cloud IAF’s 126-plane dea

While Pakistan may have pitched hard with the US for early transfer of F-16 fighter aircraft and other sophisticated military equipment, a concerned India is learnt to have raised the stakes by indicating to the US that such a transfer may not go down well at a time when two US companies are bidding for the 126 multi-role combat aircraft tender floated by India.
...
...
In this context, India has been concerned over reports that Washington is now making way for F-16 supplies along with laser-guided bomb kits besides other sophisticated equipment. It’s learnt that the matter came up for detailed discussion during Foreign Secretary Nirupama Rao’s recent visit to Washington, which was meant to carry forward the conversation on high technology trade.
...
...
While the US assured India that it was not contemplating to move forward with a Pakistan-specific nuclear deal which would only accentuate proliferation concerns in the region, there has been lesser clarity on military sales and transfers. India, sources said, has told the US that the intention of the Pakistan government seems to be to only build its military profile against India using American aid. Weapon systems such as the F-16 aircraft are a clear pointer to this, added sources.

By linking this with the 126-aircraft MMRCA deal, India is not ruling out the possibility of such a transfer to Pakistan becoming a factor in its ultimate selection process.
...
...

[A_Gupta]

US-India trade is $45 billion in goods + $10 billion in BPO services = $55 billion
US-China trade is $450 billion in goods alone.
US-Japan trade is $200 billion in goods alone.
....
In order for the US to treat India as 2nd world status, this trade level including goods and services has to be at US-Japan trade levels.

I mostly disagree with the above. What matters in the evaluation of a company's stock or the value of a nation as a trading partner is not the current performance, but the potential for growth. That is how Amazon and Google could have such huge market capitalizations even when their revenue was tiny. If Indo-US trade e.g., is growing at 20% per annum (pulling a number out of my hat) and US-Japanese trade is pretty constant at $200 billion, then India will have a lot of clout compared to the Japanese.

[shiv]

If Indo-US trade e.g., is growing at 20% per annum (pulling a number out of my hat) and US-Japanese trade is pretty constant at $200 billion, then India will have a lot of clout compared to the Japanese.

I am no biz-wiz kid, but I recall how India appeared in the consciousness of foreign companies for whom the name India did not exist. Let me say it the way I think it happened and will gratefully accept any corrections to my qibla.

Companies like Merc and BMW did not even mention India in their annual figures when their own annual sales were something like this

US sales 1 million units
Europe sales 300,000 units
Middle East sales 55,000 units
etc
etc
rest of the world 20,000 units

When developed markets for goods like washing machines, TVs and the like plateaued out the real growth areas left were China and India. Guess who benefits from TV, car and washing machine sales in India. It is mostly Japan and Korea.

The US is directly benefited by the sales of mainly the stuff they have keep closest to their chests and have not given away (outsourced to others). Hi tech military hardware and electronics fall firmly in this category. Barely a handful of countries sell the items that most militaries use - sometimes its just two nations that lead the list.

There are two aspects to business.One is to get the business today. The second is to retain your customer and not lose him so he keeps buying from you in future. So the customer has some leeway in a market that has more than one vendor. In military sales the choice is not large, but because they are high ticket deals the competition (and the bribes offered) are huge.