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Prominent Taliban supporter killed - by the Taliban The man in question is a former Pakistan Air Force officer who joined the ISI and was involved in the Taliban take-over of Afghanistan. He retained his contacts, and was much respected by the Taliban - the Afghan Taliban, that is. Some time ago he was kidnapped by the Taliban and held for the demand that three leading Taliban persons in Pakistan custody be released.
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We, along with others, thought this to be a ruse. Why would they kidnap and threaten a man who is their close associate and friend? This had to be an attempt by the Taliban to pull a fast one on the US; presumably the Pakistan government would have "exchanged" him for the the three leaders and then turned to the US saying it had no choice.'
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But the man has turned up dead, and now it turns out the Punjab Taliban did him in. He was a negotiator in the Lahore Red Mosque siege, and the Punjab Taliban regarded him as a traitor. After the seize, the Punjabi terrorist groups split, with some members choosing to remain with the Pakistan state, and others who went on to fight the state.
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What this was doing in tribal territory his own except for another Taliban supporter is unknown. The speculation is the Pakistan Government sent him to negotiate with the Punjab Taliban. He would have had to volunteer, presumably, and things went wrong.
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So what does all this mean? As usual with these things, maybe nothing. But it could mean the Punjab Taliban has hardened its anti-government position. If it has, then good luck to everyone, because Pakistan already has enough troubles.
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From India's viewpoint, this is one more piece in helping confirm rumors that the Taliban will turn their attention to Kashmir. A few killings have been reported in Pakistan Kashmir. Many Indians doubt, or did doubt, that the Taliban would turn on India.
But see, that's the Afghan Taliban, with whom India keeps contact - just as the US does. The Punjabi Taliban are another matter.
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We've said before that when the Taliban assault against Kashmir comes, the Taliban will find an Indian Army that is fully ready for them. It will not be a decades long ad hoc CI as was the case with the 1985-2005 insurgency.
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The danger here is that if the Taliban push India too much, India will have to retaliate. President Obama has little personal credibility with the Indians unlike Mr. Bush, and after repeatedly having restrained themselves at Mr. Bush's request, the Indians will be in no mood to listen to Mr. Obama.
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So why is Editor, the last known ultra-hawk on Pakistan, worried that a war will result? Isn't that what he's advocated for 40 years?
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Well, yes and no.
Editor has advocated a carefully thought out and carefully executed war that will result in bringing Pakistan Kashmir, West Punjab, and Sindh back into the Union of India. This is not the same thing as a half-baked response born of anger, which we are likely to see if India is sufficiently goaded. The metaphor of India as an elephant is appropriate: India plods along peacefully, shrugging off the pinpricks and attacks of insects and small fry. But once an elephant goes mad, well, that is not a good thing for anyone, including the elephant.
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People who know Editor will think he has gone mad after 20-years in the American wilderness. Truthfully, he does feel a bit crazy at times. But he is being sober when he says right now the only thing that may be standing between India and a completely broken Pakistan state, with infinite possibilities for very bad things happening to both India and Pakistan, is the Pakistan Army.
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And the last thing India needs right now is to weaken the Pakistan Army, which is going to happen if India retaliates against Pakistan state and non-state actors attacking India.