Rudradev: Some responses:
Under present circumstances the chances are higher of America getting those
nukes, than if all these things (or some of these things) were not there in the
theatre. Do you disagree?
Yes I disagree. I think this "chasing after lost nukes" is a bluff that the US uses to make people think they wil do it. They have never done it and will not do anything more than lament and beg.
On the contrary by pushing the line that "Pakistan is irrational" as an absolute
statement, it is you who are creating fear among Indians of a mad-bomber state
that is capable of anything.
Well this is exactly the sticking point. Are you saying Pakistan is rational? You have not said it and you will no doubt deny saying that Pakistan is rational if I were to point out a series of irrational Pakistani acts (as I have done earlier in this thread). Either Pakistan is rational or it is not. Are you trying to create some middle ground between rationality and irrationality to squeeze your scenario into that area? I think Pakistan is irrational. How far can anyone go to test the idea that Pakistan is rational. A rational state will not allow non state actors to acquire nukes. You scenario demands that Pakistan act irrationally and you will no doubt explain why that act would be rational from a Pakistani viewpoint. Under the circumstances rationality and irrationality lose their meaning.
Pakistan is rational.
Pakistan "loses nukes to the Taliban". How would that be a rational act?
The Taliban are irrational. Why? They want nukes to use them. They have acquired them for that purpose. Is that irrational?
Either way a Pakistan that loses nukes or hands nukes to the Taliban is no more rational than the Taliban, and cannot in my view be considered less of a risk than the Taliban itself.
Yes, one would have to have some very very naive people... or some other
different kind of people who behave as if they were "naive" for other reasons
entirely. But what to do saar, all kinds of people exist in the world.
In the West there are the kind of people who, when faced with hard evidence of
Pakistani nuclear proliferation to the West's worst enemies, said "the past is
the past" and pretended that the whole thing was conducted by a "maverick"
one-man network.
Absolutely correct. So what the west thinks should really be made irrelevant to India by some means. Or else the risk to the west needs to be tweaked so that the west wakes up to the monster that they have been supporting against India.
I have said India is more unsafe compared to the present day... not that we are
more unsafe compared to the USA or Israel, if the Taliban come back to power in
Kabul.
Yes, I realise that you have said that. I am not convinced for many reasons - at least one of those reasons being that you have had to create a very special scenario for your idea (of increased risk to India) to become true. the chances of that particular scenario happening are no more likely than a whole lot of other scenarios, including, in my view a direct attack on India from Pakistan. We are just going to disagree about the likelihood of your special case scenario even occurring weighed against numerous other things that could happen. It is likely that you have actually thought these things through as I have done but are choosing to portray one particular viewpoint of what you state could to happen. That is good for a robust discussion but cannot be passed off as the only possibility.
I accept these calculations. You have established that after a Taliban
takeover the quantum of danger to US and Israel increases. I agree. But how much
does the quantum of danger to India decrease? I don't think it decreases
significantly; in fact it increases for a significant window of time between
Taliban takeover of Kabul and Taliban takeover of Pakistan. THAT is what my
scenario is about.
What I am getting at is not merely the increase in risk to the US, Israel and the West, but the fallout of that increased risk to a Pakistan that has lost to the Taliban or has handed nukes to the Taliban.
How will the west (read USA) react to a Pakistan in Taliban control, or Pakistani nukes in Taliban control?
1) Agree to pay Pakistan and the Taliban a lot more money in exchange for a promise that nukes will not be used against the West? What guarantees will this give the west. How much confidence in blackmail will it give the Paki army and the Taliban
2) "Go after" those nukes and risk a couple of nukes being used. Or no getting all of them - ensuring that a nuke or nukes remained on the loose in the hands of people whom the US tried and failed to de-nuke?
3) What would make a rational Pakistan not think of the above 2 or other possibilities? An irrational Pakistan can be expected not to bother.
In fact if you remove all blinkers and scenarios you see that option 1 has already been chosen.
That only takes us to the ultimate choice:
If a nuke hits India will India hit back? (rhetorical question)
If Paki nukes come under Taliban control does the US really have the guts to "take them out?" (rhetorical question)
Will the US use nukes on Pak-Af targets if a foreign US base is nuked with a "lost and credibly deniable Paki nuke"? (rhetorical question again)
But many of these things have already been gamed out and discussed in the old "deterrence" thread