Geopolitical thread

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 11 Sep 2010 10:53

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SmWQxNKOD7U

RT speaks to renowned economist William Engdahl, who shares his views on the recent Greek crisis, and the role American corporations played in it.

---

It is trap but by US on the EU to support them instead of turning over to SCO - Eurasia

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xLuJNYW6AtU

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SmWQxNKOD7U

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 13 Sep 2010 14:59

The backlash begins against the world landgrab.
(Note Pritchard's emphasis on misplaced priority for bio-fuels and the promise of soalr power and thorium fuelled rectors for the future)

The neo-colonial rush for global farmland has gone exponential since the food scare of 2007-2008.
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
12 Sep 2010

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comm ... dgrab.html

Xcpts:

Last week's long-delayed report by the World Bank suggests that purchases in developing countries rose to 45m hectares in 2009, a ten-fold jump from levels of the last decade. Two thirds have been in Africa, where institutions offer weak defence.

As is by now well-known, sovereign wealth funds from the Mid-East, as well as state-entities from China, the Pacific Rim, and even India are trying to lock up chunks of the world's future food supply. Western agribusiness is trying to beat them to it. Western funds - many listed on London's AIM exchange - are in turn trying to beat them. The NGO GRAIN, and farmlandgrab.com, have both documented the stampede in detail.

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funds that struck rich 'shorting' US sub-prime have rotated into the next great play of our era: 'long’ soil. "Productive agricultural land with water on site, will be very valuable in the future. And I've put a good amount of money into that," said Michael Burry, star of 'The Big Short'.

Needless to say, this has set off a fierce backlash. Brazil has passed a decree limiting acreage held by foreign-owned companies, the latest evidence that our half-century era of globalisation may be drawing to a close.

Authorities are probing whether firms are using local fronts to disguise investment in Mato Grosso and Amazonia. "Brazilian land must stay in the hands of Brazilians," said the farm development minister, Guilherme Cassel. It is starting to feel like the early 1970s when the military regime more or less froze out foreign buyers.

Where will this leave the plans of SinoLatin Capital, Goldman Sachs, Harvest Capital, or Berkshire Hathaway? Warren Buffett, wisely, is exploring his $400m venture in soya and sugar with a Brazilian partner.

Argentina is drawing up its own law, pressed by the country's bishops. More than 7pc of national territory is owned by foreigners. The Benetton brothers have 900,000 hectares of Patagonia, some on disputed Mapuche tribal land. George Soros has holdings, so does CNN's Ted Turner, and currency trader Joe Lewis, who made himself a public enemy by blocking public access to the majestic Hidden Lake.

"There are many foreigners who don’t buy to produce, but rather to position themselves in places with water, mineral resources and hydrocarbons," said Pablo Orsolini, a sponsor of the legislation.

In Madasgascar, a deal with Korea's Daiwoo Logistics to plant corn on territory half the size of Belgium led to the downfall of the government in 2008. The lease was revoked. "Madagascar's land is neither for sale nor for rent," said the new president. Even Australia's senate has called for an audit of foreign-owned land and water projects.

The allure of global land is obvious. The World Bank says industrial and “transition” countries are losing 2.9m hectares of cultivated farmland each year. China is paving over its fertile belt on the Eastern seabord, and depleting the water basin of the North China Plain for crop irrigation.

Cheng Siwei, head of China's green energy drive, told me last week that eco-damage of 13.5pc of GDP each year outstrips China’s growth rate of 10pc. National wealth is contracting. "We have an intangible environmental debt that we are leaving to our children," he said. So does India. Much of the globe is stealing food from the future.

The morality of the global land rush is finely balanced. Good projects are exactly what we need to solve the food crisis. They bring investment, know-how, and transport links. They create jobs. Peru's auction scheme on the Pacific Coast has been a success.

Yet the World Bank appears deeply torn. While the report endorses the Bank's open-door globalisation agenda, the sub-text dissents on every page. "Large land acquisitions come at a high cost. The veil of secrecy that often surrounds these deals must be lifted," it said.

It warns of a "resource curse" that may enrich a small elite, leaving wreckage behind. Proposals are not properly screened. Peasants are forcibly displaced. Communal grazing lands are closed off. Some investors manipulate opinion with a media blitz of false promises. Nothing has been produced so far on almost 80pc of the land purchased. Benefits are often minimal, "even non-existent". In Africa, the land rush is diverting effort from the core task of helping small farmers raise yields.

The Bank implicitly questions whether it is wise to divert half of the world's increased output of maize and wheat over the next decade into biofuels to meet government “mandates". It will be another decade before the stalks and other inedible parts of plants can be used in bulk.

Personally, I am coming to the conclusion that the biofuel drive is misguided, given that mass solar power and throrium-based nuclear reactors – coupled with electric cars - could step into the energy breach with less destructive effects. All it takes is global leadership. As Friends of the Earth reproaches us, every time we make a frivolous journey in an over-powered car we are hurting somebody.

Land is not a commodity. It has an atavistic pull in most cultures, and is semi-sacred everywhere. Absentee landlords who amass chunks of the earth – however well-intentioned - will be expropriated. Politics always prevails.

krisna · Post by **krisna** » 13 Sep 2010 16:24

India to maintain strategic autonomy: PM

Emphasising the country's "strategic autonomy", Prime Minister Manmohan Singh on Monday said it was "an article of faith" and India was "too large a country to be boxed into any alliance or regional or sub-regional arrangements, whether trade, economic or political."

On the global terms, the Prime Minister said, there was a shift of economic and political power to Asia, with the Asia-Pacific region, including the South East Asia needing more attention from India.
"This must seep into our defence and foreign policy planning as never before. This is a palpable desire on the part of the countries of this region to enhance cooperation with us which we must reciprocate," he added.

Describing the nations of the Gulf region, West and Central Asia as "natural partners", he said India had tangible interests in these regions, among which energy security was most important.

Hope this is reflected in our foreign and defence policies.
India has to come out of its self imposed "exile".

it has to look beyond its political boundaries and build influence across many regions-for food/energy and defence purposes.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 14 Sep 2010 01:19

US pushing $60bn Saudi arms deal
http://english.aljazeera.net/news/ameri ... 79527.html

The US government is charging ahead with a plan to sell $60bn worth of advanced aircraft and other sophisticated weapon systems to Saudi Arabia, in what is thought to be the largest US arms deal ever.
The Wall Street Journal reported on Monday that the administration of Barack Obama, the US president, was also in talks with the Saudis about naval and missile-defence upgrades that could be worth tens of billions of dollars more.Under the deal, the US is also to expand Saudi Arabia's ballistic-missile defences "to reduce the threat from Iranian rockets", US officials were reported to have said. They also said that it was unclear how much that package would be worth, but it could be similar to one in the United Arab Emirates.The Obama administration sees the sale as part of a broader policy aimed at supporting "Arab allies against Iran," and is expected to notify the US congress about these plans in the upcoming weeks, the report said.
The administration plans to frame the Saudi deal as a major job creator, supporting at least 75,000 jobs, according to company estimates.This will come as a welcome boost to a job market that was shedding thousands of jobs every month as the Obama administration struggled with economic woes.While pro-Israel US lawmakers have in the past voiced concerns about arms sales to Saudi Arabia, Israel's fears were allayed because the fighter jets would not be equipped with the type of long-range systems that could threaten Israeli soil.

Sanjay M · Post by **Sanjay M** » 14 Sep 2010 05:28

Iran would be better off not directly attacking Saudi Arabia. If I were them, I would first destabilize Iraq to weaken it, and then seize it. Iran could let the Kurds in the North go free, or have as much autonomy as they liked, and then this would leave Iran free to pursue an attrition war against Saudi, which Saudi royals would certainly lose.

Carl_T · Post by **Carl_T** » 14 Sep 2010 05:30

Not likely for any direct action against Iran. The Saudis don't see Iran to be as much of a strategic threat as they would have you believe. Any covert action also seems very difficult...the nuclear facilities are spread out all over the country in remote regions in mountains and what not.

Christopher Sidor · Post by **Christopher Sidor** » 14 Sep 2010 12:05

Sanjay M wrote:Iran would be better off not directly attacking Saudi Arabia. If I were them, I would first destabilize Iraq to weaken it, and then seize it. Iran could let the Kurds in the North go free, or have as much autonomy as they liked, and then this would leave Iran free to pursue an attrition war against Saudi, which Saudi royals would certainly lose.

Iran has a sizable Kurdish minority on its north-western border with iraq. If it gives, autonomy to kurdistan in iraq, the fallout on iran will be massive. In Iran the persians are less than 60% of the population. Rest are Azeri, Kurds, Baluch or Sunnis. The Sunnis are concentrated in the costal area while the Baluch are concentrated in the Sisatni-Baluchistan province of Iran. Iran is a pretty heterogeneous society. In fact the current the supreme ayatollah of Iran is an Azeri and not a Persian.

Moreover the area claimed by kurds, has about 30% of Iraq's oil. Iraq has the second largest reserves of Petroleum of the world after saudi arabia. And an independent Kurdistan or an autonomous Kurdistan with Oil under its feet is a nightmare for Turkey also. So if Iran wants to make kurds independent, it will have to face the wrath of Turkey.

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 14 Sep 2010 22:57

Future of the world in the hands of

Generation X in the United States
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Generation_X

Individuals considered to be within Generation X were born, and grew up during the later years of, and in the decade following the Vietnam War. They are most often linked to the presidencies of Ronald Reagan and George H. W. Bush.[21] Coming of age after the Vietnam War had ended, their political experiences and cultural perspective were shaped by the end of the cold war, the fall of the Berlin wall, and a series of US economic calamities such as the 1973 oil crisis, the 1979 energy crisis, the early 1980's recession, Black Monday (1987) and the savings and loan crisis - instilling a sense of economic uncertainty and a reduced expectation of long term fidelity between employers and employees.[citation needed] Growing up in a historical span of relative geopolitical peace for the US, this generation saw the inception of the home computer, the rise of videogames, cable television and the Internet as a tool for social and commercial purposes. Other attributes identified with this demographic are peaks in U.S. urban decay, the Dot-com bubble, the New York City blackout of 1977, the Space Shuttle Challenger disaster, the Iran hostage crisis, the Iran-Contra Affair, Desert Storm, the rise and fall of disco, 1980's rock "hair bands" such as Motley Crue and Bon Jovi, new wave, techno and punk rock, gangsta rap, Heavy Metal, 1990's grunge/alternative rock bands such as Nirvana and Pearl Jam, and the hip hop culture. Along with early members of Generation Y, Generation Xers are sometimes referred to as the MTV Generation.[citation needed]
The members of Generation X are thought to be[weasel words] the first generation to be raised in an age of postmodernism.[citation needed] Understanding the transition from modernism to postmodernism is relevant in order to understand the perspective and modalities of this generation.[citation needed] Compared with previous generations, Generation X represents a more heterogeneous generation, exhibiting great variety. They are diverse in such aspects as race, class, religion, ethnicity, and sexual orientation.[22]
Often the children of divorced parents,[citation needed] change is more the rule for the people of Generation X than the exception.[citation needed] Unlike their parents who challenged leaders with an intent to replace them, Generation X tend to ignore leaders.[23]
The US Census Bureau cites Generation X as statistically holding the highest education levels when looking at age group (bloc): US Census Bureau, in their 2009 Statistical Abstract.[citation needed] (Also see Education Statistics Canada, 2001 Census.)[citation needed]
In economics, a study (done by Pew Charitable Trusts, the American Enterprise Institute, the Brookings Institute, the Heritage Foundation and the Urban Institute) challenged the notion that each generation will be better off than the one that preceded it.[24] The study, 'Economic Mobility: Is the American Dream Alive and Well?" focuses on the income of males 30-39 in 2004 (those born April, 1964 – March, 1974) and is based on Census/BLS CPS March supplement data.[25] The study, which was released on May 25, 2007, emphasized that in real dollars, this generation's men made less (by 12%) than their fathers had at that same age in 1974, thus reversing a historical trend. The study also suggests that per year increases in the portion of father/son family household income generated by fathers/sons have slowed (from an average of 0.9% to 0.3%), barely keeping pace with inflation, though increases in overall father/son family household income are progressively higher each year because more women are entering the workplace, contributing to family household income.[26]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_ge ... enerations

Eastern world
In China, the after-eighty generation (Chinese: 八零后世代 )(short form: 八零后) (born-after-1980 generation) (also sometimes called China's Generation Y) are those who were born between the year 1980 to 1989 in urban areas of Mainland China. These people are also called "Little Emperors" (or at least the first to be called so) because of the People's Republic of China's one-child policy. Growing up in modern China, China’s Gen Y has been characterised by its optimism for the future, newfound excitement for consumerism and entrepreneurship and acceptance of its historic role in transforming modern China into an economic superpower.
In South Korea, generational cohorts are often defined around the democratization of the country, with various schemes suggested including names such as the "democratization generation", 386 generation[43][44] (also called the "June 3, 1987 generation"), that witnessed the June uprising, the "April 19 generation" (that struggled against the Syngman Rhee regime in 1960), the "June 3 generation" (that struggled against the normalization treaty with Japan in 1964), the "1969 generation" (that struggled against the constitutional revision allowing three presidential terms), and the shinsedae ("new") generation.[44][45][46]
In India, generations tend to follow a pattern similar to the broad western model, although there are still major differences, especially in the older generations.[47] According to one interpretation, Indian independence in 1947 marked a generational shift in India. People born in the 1930s and 1940s tended to be loyal to the new state and tended to adhere to "traditional" divisions of society. Indian "boomers", those born after independence and into the early 1960s, tended to link success to leaving India and were more suspicious of traditional societal institutions. Events such as the Indian Emergency made them more sceptical of government. Generation X saw an improvement in India's economy and they are more comfortable with diverse perspectives. Generation Y continues this pattern.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 14 Sep 2010 23:02

Good reminder of the power of demographic change.

Sanjay M · Post by **Sanjay M** » 15 Sep 2010 05:28

European Commissioner lectures France on its eviction of illegal roma, not unlike Obama hectoring Arizona over its actions against illegal mexicans:

France should use its power to slap her down and put her in her place.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 15 Sep 2010 16:47

Sarko Bleu....sorry,"Sacre Bleu"!
M.le president is up the creek with a cascading series of scandals like Nixon,read on!

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world ... 79263.html

Xcpts:

Sarkogate: All Le President’s men?

The crisis engulfing France's President Sarkozy is drawing comparisons with the Watergate scandal of the 1970s. John Lichfield considers the evidence
Wednesday, 15 September 2010

Notables from a scandal: President Sarkozy in front of an image of his scourge, 'Le Monde'

Sarkogate? Le Mondegate? L'Oréalgate? Evidence continued to pile up yesterday that President Nicolas Sarkozy's office abused its powers, and broke the law, to staunch newspaper revelations flowing from the convoluted (but endlessly fascinating) L'Oréal family feud and political financing scandal.

The comparison with President Richard Nixon and the Watergate affair of the 1970s may be something of a stretch. Consider, however, the similarities.

A beleaguered President has been directly challenged by the country's leading liberal newspaper. (Le Monde in Mr Sarkozy's case; The Washington Post in the case of Nixon.)

The presidency stands accused of misusing the security services to pursue narrow political interests. A head of state who makes law and order his political battle cry has been accused of breaking his country's laws (twice over, if you include Sarkozy's harebrained campaign against Roma immigrants, formally condemned yesterday by Brussels).

The comparisons with Watergate should not be pushed too far. Richard Nixon set out in 1971-72 to manipulate an entire presidential campaign. The US president's men robbed and lied and smeared.

The French President's men and women are accused "only" of sending the counter-intelligence services on a witch-hunt to track down the source of embarrassing leaks. They are accused "only" of breaking a century-old French law guaranteeing press freedom, and the privacy of media sources, which had been renewed and reinforced in January of this year.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 15 Sep 2010 18:25

JE Menon wrote:Well it just so happens that the spokesman for Terry Jones is one K.A. Paul. SDRE incarnate. Keen observers of the evangelical scene will recall him. This fellow Paul has been referred to as the "craziest preacher ever"! Blowback is a beaatch

He just spoke live giving a deadline of 2 hours for the New York mosque imam to give clarify his stand on the issue of abandoning the mosque idea.

Oh by the way, K.A. stands for Kilari Anand

Some juice on the gent.

http://barthsnotes.wordpress.com/2006/1 ... %E2%80%9D/

One rarely gets an opportunity for smugness these days. This is one such.

Is this the Same Paul guy from Coastal AP, I think Guntur who had a huge Fallout with YSR's Son-in-Law "Brother Anil Kumar" 2 years ago? Wasn't he also the person who lead huge conversions in coastal AP in mid 2000's which helped YSR secure many seats in AP and INC MPs? Hmmm, so there is more to mere speculation between Southern United States based evenjelicals , Republican party and INC than just meets the eye. Funny thing is after his fall out with Brother Anil Kumar, Paul become close to the TDP, but by the time YSR had secured himself as a represntative of the community.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 15 Sep 2010 21:06

JE Menon wrote:Well it just so happens that the spokesman for Terry Jones is one K.A. Paul. SDRE incarnate. Keen observers of the evangelical scene will recall him. This fellow Paul has been referred to as the "craziest preacher ever"! Blowback is a beaatch

He just spoke live giving a deadline of 2 hours for the New York mosque imam to give clarify his stand on the issue of abandoning the mosque idea.

Oh by the way, K.A. stands for Kilari Anand

Some juice on the gent.

http://barthsnotes.wordpress.com/2006/1 ... %E2%80%9D/

One rarely gets an opportunity for smugness these days. This is one such.

This guy was at loggerheads with late YSR and his son-in-law Brother Anil Kumar on the EJ funds. He was haunted for past 9 years, including allegations of murdering of his own brother.

abhishek_sharma · Post by **abhishek_sharma** » 16 Sep 2010 09:32

France hits back at EU criticism of Roma policy

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/ar ... OX7MANT3_w

abhishek_sharma · Post by **abhishek_sharma** » 16 Sep 2010 09:38

The Great Power Council

http://bosco.foreignpolicy.com/posts/20 ... uncil_ever

He pointed out something interesting: in 2011, the UN Security Council will likely include more major powers than at any time in recent memory. In addition to the five permanent members, the Council will have Brazil and Nigeria (current members whose terms expire at the end of 2011.) All but certain to be new members are India and South Africa. And depending on how the General Assembly votes this fall, Germany and Canada could both snag seats (they're in a three-way race for two seats with Portugal). In all, more than half the G-20 may be represented. It will be an interesting test run for how an altered Security Council might perform.

For the aspiring permanent members, Council membership will be a delicate dance. On the one hand, they'll want to show the broader UN membership (whose votes they need to get any Council reform plan through the General Assembly) that they can stand up to the permanent five on key issues. But too much freelancing may annoy the P5 and make them less amenable to adding new permanent seats (some diplomats I've spoken with believe that the Brazil/Turkey foray during the Iran sanctions debate may have already had this effect).

abhishek_sharma · Post by **abhishek_sharma** » 16 Sep 2010 09:42

France's real threat from within

http://rothkopf.foreignpolicy.com/posts ... rom_within

By a vote of 246 to 1 the French Senate voted Tuesday to excise the word's liberté, égalité, and fraternité from the country's soul. With the vote to ban the wearing of burqas in public, France took a step back into the Dark Ages.

...

Combine this with the French government's recent treatment of Romas and you have a pattern of behavior that echoes many of the darkest motifs in European history. Forcing my father to wear a yellow star on the streets of Vienna when he was a boy is the flip side of this coin. Protecting social "purity" by identifying an ethnic minority or by denying that minority -- in this case members of France's second largest religious group -- the right of self-expression is the same appalling thing

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 17 Sep 2010 18:05

PLot against the Pope,5 held.

Excpt:
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/cr ... 82190.html

Five held over Pope 'plot'
Friday, 17 September 2010
A multimillion-pound operation was put in place to protect the Pope during his tour of Scotland, London and the West Midlands.
The men were arrested by officers from the Met's Counter Terrorism Command shortly before 6am.
The suspects, aged 26, 27, 36, 40 and 50, were held under the Terrorism Act 2000 at business premises in central London.
They were taken to a central London police station, where they will be interviewed by detectives.
A Metropolitan Police spokesman said the business was being searched, as well as homes in north and east London.

A spokesman said: "Initial searches have not uncovered any hazardous items.
"Today's arrests were made after police received information. Following initial inquiries by detectives, a decision was made to arrest the five men.
"Following today's arrests the policing arrangements for the Papal visit were reviewed and we are satisfied that our current policing plan remains appropriate.
"The itinerary has not changed. There is no change to the UK threat level."

Sources said the accuracy of the information received by police is yet to be checked and stressed that no suspicious items have been found.
The source refused to discuss the nature of the tip-off, but said it was only received a relatively short time before the arrests were made.
A huge security and public order operation swung into action yesterday as the Pope touched down in Britain.
Thousands of officers are involved in the operation from forces including the Met, Strathclyde, Lothian and Borders, West Midlands and British Transport Police.
.

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 18 Sep 2010 17:02

How soon the TSP connection will come to light in this case. Any one care to bet.

Sanjay M · Post by **Sanjay M** » 20 Sep 2010 03:39

(BBC)Red Shirts Stage New Protest in Thailand

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 20 Sep 2010 07:35

Freedom is not free; free men are not equal; and equal men are not free.
Richard Berkeley Cotten

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 20 Sep 2010 21:26

Acharya wrote:Freedom is not free; free men are not equal; and equal men are not free.
Richard Berkeley Cotten

+1. Only.

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 21 Sep 2010 03:23

20 SEP, 2010, 09.19PM IST,PTI
India considering deepwater gas pipeline from Oman: Report

DUABI: India is actively considering building a 2,000-km-long deepwater transnational gas pipeline from Oman for transporting natural gas sourced from Turkmenistan, Iran and Qatar, a leading industry official has said.
The proposed sub-sea pipeline will meet the additional gas requirement of the UAE, Oman and India, besides easing gas transportation issues of producing countries like Turkmenistan, Iran and Qatar, Subodh Kumar Jain, Director of South Asia Gas Enterprise (SAGE), told Times of Oman.

http://news.google.com/news/more?pz=1&c ... _X3RoU7VeM

http://www.unc.edu/depts/diplomat/item/ ... nasia.html

O’Hanlon outlines four economic actions he believes could significantly improve the security situation in South Asia (increasing economic aid to Pakistan, passing a free trade agreement for Pakistan’s tribal regions, encouraging India and Pakistan to sign a free trade accord, and building pipelines and electricity lines from Afghanistan to Pakistan and India).

This is certainly an ambitious agenda, and as O’Hanlon makes clear, the likelihood of any of these actions occurring in the near future is nil. However unlikely, most of his steps are critical to achieving a stable political and security situation in the sub-continent. The only exception is a U.S. free trade agreement limited to Pakistan’s tribal regions.

The main problem with O’Hanlon’s approach is that it ignores the deeper underlying fissures that divide Afghanistan, Pakistan and India. Though crucial to cementing relationships, past experience shows that aid and trade cannot resolve political and security differences. O’Hanlon, like other authors, suggests the Marshall Plan as a template, correctly asserting that the current security stakes are as high as those in Southeastern Europe after WW II. But the subcontinent is not comparable to Turkey and Greece. The focus of the Marshall Plan was on preventing a foreign power, the USSR, from controlling those strategic countries. In the subcontinent we are facing implacable divisions among the countries we intend to assist.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 21 Sep 2010 03:40

His plan is to put Indian lifelines in Paki hands! Very smart. noT!

Anyway TSP doesn't want to have free trade agreement. They prefer to buy Indian goods via Dubai. Its their loss.

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 21 Sep 2010 08:11

X Post

vish_mulay wrote:I dont know where to post this PDF file about Global goveranance. Moderators please delete it or post it to appropiate thread.

http://www.acus.org/files/publication_p ... e_2025.pdf

Global Governance 2025:at a Critical Juncture

The United States’ National Intelligence Council (NIC) and the European Union’s Institute for
Security Studies (EUISS) have joined forces to produce this assessment of the long-term prospects
for global governance frameworks. This exercise builds on the experience of the two institutions in
identifying the key trends shaping the future international system. Since the mid 1990s, the NIC has
produced four editions of its landmark Global Trends report. The most recent one, Global Trends
2025: A Transformed World, published in late 2008, noted that momentous change was ahead, with
the gap between increasing disorder and weakening governance structures widening. The EUISS
produced the first EU-level report on the factors affecting the evolution of the international system
in 2006, The New Global Puzzle. What World for the EU in 2025? The report stressed that a
multipolar system is emerging and that matching the new distribution of power with new rules and
institutions will be critical to preserving international peace and stability.

The shift to a multipolar world is complicating the prospects for effective global governance
over the next 10 years. The expanding economic clout of emerging powers increases their
political influence well beyond their borders. Power is not only shifting from established powers
to rising countries and, to some extent, the developing world, but also toward nonstate actors.
Diverse perspectives and suspicions about global governance, which is seen as a Western
concept, will add to the difficulties of effectively mastering the growing number of challenges.
• Brazilians feel there is a need for a redistribution of power from developed to developing
states. Some experts we consulted saw Brazil tending to like “old fashioned”
multilateralism, which is state-centered and does not make room for nonstate actors.
• Many of our Chinese interlocutors see mounting global challenges and fundamental defects
in the international system but emphasize the need for China to deal with its internal
problems. The Chinese envisage a “bigger structure” pulling together the various institutions
and groups that have been established recently. They see the G-20 as being a step forward
but question whether North-South differences will impede cooperation on issues other than
economics.• For participants from the Persian Gulf region, the question is what sort of global institutions
are most capable of inclusive power sharing. They bemoaned the lack of strong regional
organizations.
• The Indians thought existing international organizations are “grossly inadequate” and
worried about an “absence of an internal equilibrium in Asia to ensure stability.” They felt
that India is not well positioned to help develop regional institutions for Asia given China’s
preponderant role in the region.• Russian experts we consulted see the world in 2025 as still one of great powers but with
more opportunities for transnational cooperation. The Russians worried about the relative
lack of “transpacific security.” The United States, Europe, and Russia also have scope for
growing much closer, while China, “with the biggest economy,” will be the main factor in
changing the world.
• The South Africans assessed that globalization appears to be strengthening regionalization as
opposed to creating a single global polity. They worried that the losers from globalization
increasingly outnumber the winners.
In addition to the shift to a multipolar world, power is also shifting toward nonstate actors, be
they agents or spoilers of cooperation. On a positive note, transnational nongovernmental
organizations, civil-society groups, churches and faith-based organizations, multinational
corporations, other business bodies, and interest groups have been equally, if not more effective
than states at reframing issues and mobilizing publics—a trend we expect to continue. However,
hostile nonstate actors such as criminal organizations and terrorist networks, all empowered by
existing and new technologies, can pose serious security threats and compound systemic risks.
Many developing countries—which are likely to play an increasing role at the regional and
global level—also suffer from a relative paucity of nonstate actors, that could help newly
emerging states and their governments deal with the growing transnational challenges.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 21 Sep 2010 13:56

Super idea of an undersea pipeline from the Gulf to India,thus avoidign Paki interference,while still keeping Iran and the Cental Asian states in the supply loop.A win-win on every front.

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 21 Sep 2010 14:04

True,

But OTOH I have been reading of such pipelines every time some one talks of IPI pipeleine. With little progress where actual work is concerned.

So all in all a good countervalue move from the Indian side of scuttling the IPI line.

Sanjay M · Post by **Sanjay M** » 21 Sep 2010 17:57

Anti-Russian bloc crumbling:

(BBC)MPs desert defeated Ukraine candidate Yulia Tymoshenko

Ukraine's parliament has confirmed the migration of 28 MPs from the bloc led by Yulia Tymoshenko, who was defeated in this year's presidential election.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 22 Sep 2010 04:43

http://www.cio.com/article/616765/Was_S ... r_Program_
Stuxnet Built to Attack Iran's Nuclear Program?A highly sophisticated computer worm

IDG News Service — A highly sophisticated computer worm that has spread through Iran, Indonesia and India was built to destroy operations at one target: possibly Iran's Bushehr nuclear reactor.
That's the emerging consensus of security experts who have examined the Stuxnet worm. In recent weeks, they've broken the cryptographic code behind the software and taken a look at how the worm operates in test environments. Researchers studying the worm all agree that Stuxnet was built by a very sophisticated and capable attacker -- possibly a nation state -- and it was designed to destroy something big.
Though it was first developed more than a year ago, Stuxnet was discovered in July 2010, when a Belarus-based security company discovered the worm on computers belonging to an Iranian client. Since then it has been the subject of ongoing study by security researchers who say they've never seen anything like it before. Now, after months of private speculation, some of the researchers who know Stuxnet best say that it may have been built to sabotage Iran's nukes.
Last week Ralph Langner, a well-respected expert on industrial systems security, published an analysis of the worm, which targets Siemens software systems, and suggested that it may have been used to sabotage Iran's Bushehr nuclear reactor. A Siemens expert, Langner simulated a Siemens industrial network and then analyzed the worm's attack.

abhishek_sharma · Post by **abhishek_sharma** » 22 Sep 2010 09:22

Britain retools under David Cameron

http://shadow.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2 ... id_cameron

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 22 Sep 2010 11:08

Philip wrote:Super idea of an undersea pipeline from the Gulf to India,thus avoidign Paki interference,while still keeping Iran and the Cental Asian states in the supply loop.A win-win on every front.

Philip, see this post in the Iran thread made a while ago.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 22 Sep 2010 12:27

Tx Sridhar.
Here is Japan returning to its Samurai roots as China "demands" japanese obedience.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... China.html

Japan threatens build up of military forces amid rising tensions with China
Japan is threatening an almost 10 per cent increase in its ground defence forces in response to a growing diplomatic dispute with China.

XCpt:

By Danielle Demetriou in Tokyo
21 Sep 2010

Japan is considering stepping up its self-defence forces which include this plane flying over disputed islands in the region Photo: AP The defence ministry is reported to be exploring plans to expand the size of the Japan's ground personnel by 13,000 troops – almost 10 per cent – as early as next year. The expansion would be the first in almost 40 years and come amid growing regional tensions, particularly in areas where China's navy is increasingly active.

The proposal – which is expected to be in Japan's new national defence programme that is compiled by the end of the year – also reportedly aims to help deal with terrorism threats and natural disasters. But it is the tense diplomatic stand off with China which is the more immediate backdrop. Japan and China are in dispute following the initial detention of the crew of a Chinese boat near disputed islands in the region. The captain of the boat is still under detention.

China has halted senior government level contact between the two nations and yesterday ruled out a meeting between the two countries' leaders at the United Nations gathering in New York this week. A Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman also warned other countries not to become involved: "We resolutely oppose any country which has no connection to the South China Sea getting involved in the dispute, and we oppose the internationalisation, multilateralisation or expansion of the issue. It cannot solve the problem, but make it more complicated."

China has cancelled planned talks on issues such as aviation rights and withdrawn an invitation for 1,000 young Japanese to attend the Shanghai Expo.

Japan has insisted meanwhile that its actions were legal. It has urged its powerful neighbour to resist fuelling nationalism. "What is most important is that government officials in Japan, China and other countries try not to fuel narrow-minded, extreme nationalism," Yoshito Sengoku, the chief secretary to the cabinet, told a news conference.

The proposal to increase Japan's ground force staff is likely to focus on southerly regions which are home to a string of disputed islands – including those at the heart of the current row – as well as underwater energy resources.

China's heavy investment in the modernisation of its military forces, in particular its navy, is also increasing Japanese concern.

Last month, the Pentagon warned in a report that China was extending its military advantage over Taiwan and beyond, with the creation of a force capable of striking as far afield as the US territory of Guam.

Earlier this year, China announced plans to raise its defence budget by 7.5 per cent to £51 billion.

Japan currently has around 140,000 members in the ground self-defence force with an approved maximum capacity of 155,000. The number of staff has been in decline since 1996, while the last rise in personnel levels took place in 1972 and involved a rise of only 1,000 staff to 180,000.

kmkraoind · Post by **kmkraoind** » 22 Sep 2010 12:33

China tells U.S. to keep out of South China Sea dispute

"We resolutely oppose any country which has no connection to the South China Sea getting involved in the dispute, and we oppose the internationalization, multilateralization or expansion of the issue. It cannot solve the problem, but make it more complicated," she said.

If then, why these mofos are interfering in South Asia, its clearly a double standard. It seems like the day is not faraway where big powers will gang up against Imperial China to break it into Coastal China, leaving Greater Mongolia and Tibet as independent nations.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 22 Sep 2010 14:14

A view from Latin America

Published on Sept. 21, 2010
By Scott Sullivan
Why Castro attacks Ahmadinejad: Petroleum World

If somebody can make heads or tails about the article, consider yourselves cleverer than this humble BRFite.

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 22 Sep 2010 18:35

^^^Do we need to make sense?

The author seems to be complete unaware of Castro's twists and turns about Islamism. It perhaps has very little to do with petroleum. Moreover why so much importance to a fading ideologue who has moved power over to West Bengal style pragmatists within the Communist fold! He was never a Marxist to begin with - it was his bro Raoul really! But he was one of the first within the international communist movement to reco to the Russians about using the resurgent Islamic radicalism as a fuel post Khomeini.

It could simply be an attempt by his successors to come to a convergence with Washington DC given that Cuba's pre-eminent position in leading the Latin and Meso American "revolution" has been usurped by local "upstarts" who have shaken hands with Iran.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 23 Sep 2010 22:41

http://www.zdnet.com/blog/government/wh ... o-you/9427
What part of selling our uranium mines to Russia makes sense to you ?

The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission announced this week (PDF) that they’re offering the opportunity for hearings and comment on a wee little purchase of mofo-frackin’ uranium by the Russians.I am not making this up. I could not possibly make this up.It turns out that JSC Atomredmetzoloto (a Russian company) is trying to buy the Uranium One Irigaray-Christensen Ranch in-situ leach uranium recovery (ISR) facility in eastern Wyoming.Now, this is not just a Russian company. Oh, no. Atomredmetzoloto, according to the NRC, “is controlled by Rosatom, the Russian Federation’s state agency that oversees the Russian nuclear industry.”
Kudos to my friend Jorge who pointed out this little bit of news. I couldn’t have said it any better than when he said, “The world no longer makes any sense to me.”

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 24 Sep 2010 10:13

NoKo and SoKo on the brink of war Russia warns.

North and South Korea on the brink of war, Russian diplomat warns
North and South Korea are on the brink of war, a top Russian diplomat has warned, calling for both countries to exercise restraint and sit down for talks.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... warns.html

In Moscow's bleakest assessment of the situation on the Korean peninsula yet, Russian deputy foreign minister Alexei Borodavkin said tensions between the two countries were running at their highest and most dangerous level in a decade.

"Tensions on the Korean Peninsula could not be any higher. The only next step is a conflict," he told foreign policy experts at a round table on the subject in Moscow.

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Kim Jong-il is a headache, but not a nightmareHis prediction came two months after North Korea vowed to wage "a sacred war" against South Korea and its biggest backer, the United States.

Tensions bubbled over in March after Washington and Seoul concluded that a North Korean submarine had sunk a South Korean naval vessel in the Yellow Sea. Mr Borodavkin called for the investigation into exactly who was responsible for the sinking of the vessel, the Cheonan, to be urgently closed in order to remove an obvious source of tension.

Describing the standoff between the two Koreas as a "hangover from the Cold War," Mr Borodavkin said Russia, which is one of the six countries involved in talks with North Korea over its nuclear programme, was doing all it could to try to prevent an outbreak of hostilities.

But he said responsibility for keeping peace in the volatile region was shared equally between North and South Korea. He condemned North Korea's nuclear testing programme but also criticised the way the United States and South Korea had increased their military manoeuvres in the wake of the sinking of the Cheonan.

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 24 Sep 2010 10:37

Economist and writer John Perkins was deeply involved in Washington's economic schemes to create a global empire. Now he tells RT what's come out of it - and who really controls the world's biggest economy.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0CofEbxtIxI

How KSA oil moeny was used to boost up the global economy.

abhishek_sharma · Post by **abhishek_sharma** » 25 Sep 2010 11:47

Is NATO irrelevant?

http://walt.foreignpolicy.com/posts/201 ... irrelevant

naren · Post by **naren** » 25 Sep 2010 13:01

Acharya wrote:Economist and writer John Perkins was deeply involved in Washington's economic schemes to create a global empire. Now he tells RT what's come out of it - and who really controls the world's biggest economy.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0CofEbxtIxI

How KSA oil moeny was used to boost up the global economy.

This guy is full of shiite. A friend recommended his "Confessions of an economic hitman". After reading 25%, I was totally convinced of one thing - Paki YYY conspiracies are more fun to read

Neshant · Post by **Neshant** » 25 Sep 2010 13:25

Although I've not read his book, I don't doubt Perkin's premise that a major reason the IMF & rating agencies exists is to push the economic agenda of western countries mainly the US onto the third world. i.e. rip off those countries, put/keep them in debt trap, take over their markets and rob their natural resources at fire sale prices.

However with Asia developing rapidlly, this racket has largely been curtailed and there are fewer and fewer countries outside Africa and South Central America to scam.