Managing Chinese Threat

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 03 Oct 2010 02:45

naren wrote:
What it means is that China is really "short term" in its geopolitics/international affairs despite all the hype.

It is complex thinking.
They have something called national strength which they have been calculating for every nation in the last 30 years.
They look at the position and situation but make simple conclusion.
They do not understand the spirit of the nation in a democratic nation which fights as one country to keep its freedom

Coercion nationalism is not real nationalism. False grevience and ego based nationalism is not real.

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 03 Oct 2010 04:10

"gang of four"

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 03 Oct 2010 08:55

naren wrote: RajeshA posted:
Is Obama ready for a stare-down with China?: Christian Science Monitor
But these days China sees the US as weak. The American economy is stagnant. Many of the top Obama officials, such as Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel and Defense Secretary Robert Gates, are leaving the administration. The president wants major cuts in the Pentagon. US forces began to leave Iraq this year, and Obama plans to start a US retreat from Afghanistan next year.

Well I always have a doubt about some reports such as the one that has been quoted. As I see it there is the possibility of an error of perception here. I will try and explain that

The author of the CSM article says that China thinks Obama is weak. Now look at this analogy

Naren says shiv thinks RajeshA is hungry. So RajeshA is probably hungry.

shiv thinks Rajesh is hungry. But shiv may be wrong. Using shiv's interpretation of RajeshA may lead to a misinterpretation of Rajesh's motivation.

The CSM monitor author thinks that China thinks that the US is weak. Has any Chinese official agency ever stated that? Is there any other indicator? In the absence of these it is unwise to reach a conclusion about China's state of mind just because the explanation fits a bias the observer (shiv or CSM reporter) has in his mind.

So can there be any alternative explanation for China's "gandmasti" type behavior? IMO yes.

The boorish and uncouth Chinese leadership do gandmasti with everyone because they are like that onlee. The observer who is observing Chinese behavior changes his comments depending on what he believes to be true. When the observer sees the Chinese doing gandmasti to whom he thinks is " a strong leader" he comments "The Chinese are becoming assertive". But when the Chinese do the same thing with another leader whom he thinks is weak he says "Oh the Chinese are acting like this because the leader is weak"

How we interpret China may be based on how some reporter thinks China is behaving in relation to Obama based on that reporters assessment of Obama or the US. I think such interpretations need to be taken with caution.

naren · Post by **naren** » 03 Oct 2010 09:01

^^^ I did not base my conclusions based only on CSM. I have seen similar reports for some time and an interview of a Chinese origin intellectual who reflected the same opinion.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 03 Oct 2010 09:06

naren wrote:^^^ I did not base my conclusions based only on CSM. I have seen similar reports for some time and an interview of a Chinese origin intellectual who reflected the same opinion.

I would love to see that interview or any other article where the Chinese or a spokesperson are openly interpreting the US as weak. I have not seen one and may have missed it and if it exists I would like to see it. But that does not make what you wrote untrue.

I believe that gangsters do not necessarily challenge the other guy after he sees him as weak. He challenges the other guy and watches his response to see if he is weak or not. So I am not denying that the CPC show gangster buddhi. I am only questioning the assumption that they show gangster buddhi only when they assess someone as weak. Gangsters act like thugs all the time - whether the other guy is weak or not. But they are more ready to do downhill ski if the other guy appears strong. They like to show it when they act tough and hide it when they are showing weakness.

Arjun · Post by **Arjun** » 03 Oct 2010 09:22

shiv wrote:I believe that gangsters do not necessarily challenge the other guy after he sees him as weak. He challenges the other guy and watches his response to see if he is weak or not. So I am not denying that the CPC show gangster buddhi. I am only questioning the assumption that they show gangster buddhi only when they assess someone as weak. Gangsters act like thugs all the time - whether the other guy is weak or not. But they are more ready to do downhill ski if the other guy appears strong. They like to show it when they act tough and hide it when they are showing weakness.

This is exactly why a tit-for-tat policy works best with China.

Arihant · Post by **Arihant** » 03 Oct 2010 10:02

China’s blustering is insubstantial

by Paul Lin, Taipei Times, Oct. 2nd, 2010.

It is clear that Hu agreed for the yuan to be revalued in exchange for his visit to the US to go ahead, but the US helped Hu save face by not making the deal public. Meanwhile, the Chinese foreign ministry went on bluffing and blustering to fool China’s own citizens and fulfill their fantasies.

The US knows how to play to China’s vanity, and as a result, the US wins on substance, while China is more concerned with appearances.

There is, however, a risk that the vast trade imbalance between the US and China may continue unchanged, China’s political reforms may see no progress and China could successfully divide and conquer the US and its allies.

In that case, the US could still be the loser in the long run.

Arihant · Post by **Arihant** » 03 Oct 2010 10:27

RajeshA wrote:
Arihant wrote:RajeshA-ji: I posted this on this thread two days back, but these figures are worth reiteratiing and re-visiting. Also worth repetition is the urgent need for India to help the anti-KMT side of politics in the upcoming elections. China is busily engineering the outcome it wants to see - we should not sit back...
Sorry, I may have missed the article.

Arihant ji,

I understand the need, however I am a bit at a loss on ideas, how India can do it. At the most, India can host President Ma or open some improve on diplomatic relations. But should it at all have any impression on the Taiwanese people, it is KMT, the ruling party that would cash in on it, and not DPP.

RajeshA-sahab: Glad you've raised the question. The issue has come up in our discussions over the past month or so on this thread. Key points:

1. We need to take a page out of China's book in figuring out how to help the DPP in Taiwan, while discrediting the KMT. During the DPP-era (2000-2008), Beijing did exactly the converse (help the KMT case, discredit the ruling DPP).

2. For starters, DPP leaders should visit India, not at the direct invitation of the government, but at the invitation of entities such as FICCI, or think-tanks or even political parties. The visits should be given massive publicity, with meetings with our senior leadership thrown in. China did exactly that with the KMT-CCP summits it stage-managed. The then KMT Chairman, Lien Chan was accorded treatment usually given to a visiting head-of-state, but of course the official context was part-to-party dialogue, not state-to-state dialogue. If we were to do this, the subterfuge denies China the opportunity to act outraged.

3. Business must be the big agenda item on these visits. All manner sops could be offered (TECO consular offices in other cities, chambers of comerce, free-trade agreements etc.). The key point would be that these would be discussed with the DPP, not the ruling KMT - sending a clear message on how the goodies would start flowing once the DPP came to power (once again, China did precisely this in converse, and economic sops from China played a key role in the discourse that led to the KMT win in 2008).

4. Separately, we need to strengthen links with the Taiwanese military, political and intellectual establishments (we already have some, but we bend over backwards to keep these under the radar). As I've said earlier, even the KMT establishment is of interest to us. In Taiwanese colour-coded politics, the KMT side is referred to as the "blue" side, while the DPP and TSU the "green". In that spectrum, President Ma and his coterie are widely acknowledged as being on the extreme fanatic fringe (i.e., the "deep blue" end). The more centrist "blue"/"light blue" elements of the KMT are quite willing to play ball with us.

More ideas to follow...

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 03 Oct 2010 11:24

Arihant ji,

Great points!

Keep the creative juices flowing!

If India extends a hand to DPP, as you suggest, before the elections, it is possible that after the DPP's win in Taiwanese elections, as at the moment seems likely, we get to harvest an exceedingly friendly Taiwan.

If on the other hand, KMT should win, which at the moment seems quite unlikely, then the loss would be contained, as KMT still has to listen to Taiwanese sentiments in its flirting with PRC.

Sure PRC can get all angry and breath some hot air and smoke, but then that has only made India stronger and more prepared.

So India does not really have anything to lose.

naren · Post by **naren** » 03 Oct 2010 11:51

shiv wrote:
naren wrote:^^^ I did not base my conclusions based only on CSM. I have seen similar reports for some time and an interview of a Chinese origin intellectual who reflected the same opinion.
I would love to see that interview or any other article where the Chinese or a spokesperson are openly interpreting the US as weak. I have not seen one and may have missed it and if it exists I would like to see it. But that does not make what you wrote untrue.

I believe that gangsters do not necessarily challenge the other guy after he sees him as weak. He challenges the other guy and watches his response to see if he is weak or not. So I am not denying that the CPC show gangster buddhi. I am only questioning the assumption that they show gangster buddhi only when they assess someone as weak. Gangsters act like thugs all the time - whether the other guy is weak or not. But they are more ready to do downhill ski if the other guy appears strong. They like to show it when they act tough and hide it when they are showing weakness.

I saw that interview like a year back. I'm not able to locate it. I think it was this guy who made that statement -Andrew K.P.Leung.

Gangsters have their "hierarchy". Usually, they will not fck with higher ups. Only after they see any higher up as "weak", do they try to p!$$ on him - else the bigger thug will make a good example out of the smaller thug. In fact the biggest guy constantly engages in H&D exercise to maintain his turf (think publicly whacking the shiite out of the small shop owner who refuses to pay "maamool" (=="protection money" in TN). Chinese conception of "teaching lesson" makes more sense from a gang mentality. Atleast thats my understanding after watching many gangster movies & documentaries.

naren · Post by **naren** » 03 Oct 2010 11:57

Arihant wrote: 2. For starters, DPP leaders should visit India, not at the direct invitation of the government, but at the invitation of entities such as FICCI, or think-tanks or even political parties. The visits should be given massive publicity, with meetings with our senior leadership thrown in.

They should also visit our future brejident HH Dalai Lama

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 03 Oct 2010 12:14

naren wrote:They should also visit our future brejident HH Dalai Lama

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 03 Oct 2010 12:17

For those, who would like to delve deeper into Chinese Mentality

Published May 1998
77 Conversations Between Chinese and Foreign Leaders on the Wars in Indochina, 1964-1977: Wilson Center (pdf)

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 03 Oct 2010 12:39

Published on Oct 02, 2010
By Ajay Banerjee
Dragon closing in on India?: The Tribune, Chandigarh

In the least 10 days, China has gone ahead and set up an in-house training facility for Sukhoi-30 fighter aircraft pilots of the Indonesian Air Force at the Hasanuddin Air Base where the unit is based. Indonesia had also approached India to train its pilots but sources told The Tribune that the proposal was pending with the Ministry of Defence, which was still “studying” the request.

Apart from Russia, India and China are the two major countries operating the Russian Sukhoi-30s. In the past 12 months, Indonesia has acquired 10-odd Sukhoi-30 and Sukhoi -27 and is looking to buy 16 more.

India already trains Malaysia’s Sukhoi-30 pilots. The Singapore Army has a tie-up with the Indian Army to practice on Indian soil using cantonments and firing ranges.

Sources said the Russians were not pleased with the Chinese inroad into Indonesia. For India, it strategically means a lost chance to cement ties with Indonesia. Both Indian and Indonesian navies often practice together.

Chinese pilots, on the pretext of training Indonesians, will now be flying much closer to the Andaman Nicobar Islands, some 150 miles away from Indonesia. Crucially, almost all of China’s sea-borne imported crude oil trade and a large part of its export trade is carried out through the 500-mile wide Strait of Mallaca. China has been fidgety about India’s proximity to these crucial shipping lanes and has developed its Navy to tackle exigencies.

What's wrong with the Defence Ministry?

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 03 Oct 2010 13:38

Warning: A Lullaby
Bharat Globe seems to be either a Pakistani Site or one by a RNI

Published on Oct 01, 2010
By M.K. Bhadrakumar
Pantomime of the Great Game: Bharat Globe

There is a Chinese proposal today that they desire to build nuclear power plants in India — yes, maybe even bigger than the ones in Pakistan — having been India’s “strategic partner” historically in the nuclear field.

instead of sitting on the ground and crying about the amazing pace of development of Chinese territories across our borders, ask Chinese companies to come forward and invest in our border roads, too. According to Kamal Nath, China is prepared to increase threefold its present investments in our infrastructure sector. Why can’t China build a world-class container terminal near Thiruvananthapuram so that we won’t end up depending on the Colombo port, which China is expanding?

My Comment
Mr. Bhadrakumar has sometimes given sound advice and at other times – what you’ve read above.

What Mr. Bhadrakumar tries to do is to lull the Indian people into believing that China is the cuddly lovely Panda out to do business.

Anything that China does, be it grab territory as in PoK or build bases all over the Indian Ocean Region are simply to further its business interests and therefore legitimate. If they send out the PLA to guard these ‘business interests’ then that is all legitimate also.

Mr. Bhadrakumar has become a classical luller, just like the CPI-M who see no evil in China.

It was such lulling of India into complacency that brought us 1962. Mr. Bhadrakumar belong to that league, that just wants to see India as a secondary power in Asia, fully neutralized by PRC.

Why doesn’t Mr. Bhadrakumar explain why the PRC has gifted Pakistan with nuclear weapons and delivery systems. Each nuclear bomb can wipe out millions of Indians. Where is the business interest in that?

Why is PRC not satisfied with just swallowing Tibet but also wants our Arunachal Pradesh? Where is the business in that?

Dhiman · Post by **Dhiman** » 03 Oct 2010 13:38

RajeshA wrote:Published on Oct 02, 2010
By Ajay Banerjee
Dragon closing in on India?: The Tribune, Chandigarh
In the least 10 days, China has gone ahead and set up an in-house training facility for Sukhoi-30 fighter aircraft pilots of the Indonesian Air Force at the Hasanuddin Air Base where the unit is based. Indonesia had also approached India to train its pilots but sources told The Tribune that the proposal was pending with the Ministry of Defence, which was still “studying” the request.
What's wrong with the Defence Ministry?

If the babu's don't wake up, China will keep on eating their lunch and dinner.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 03 Oct 2010 14:24

Dragon closing in on India?: The Tribune, Chandigarh

Ah - the Indian language of fear. Where was China all these years? Off the coast of Argentina?

What exactly does India get out of training Indonesian pilots? Better to exercise with them after they are trained by the Chinese to see what they can do no?

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 03 Oct 2010 15:11

Great when one can always snatch piskological victory from the jaws of real defeat!

Makes real victories totally redundant and one saves on effort too!

Arihant · Post by **Arihant** » 03 Oct 2010 16:35

RajeshA wrote:Arihant ji,

Great points!

Keep the creative juices flowing!

If India extends a hand to DPP, as you suggest, before the elections, it is possible that after the DPP's win in Taiwanese elections, as at the moment seems likely, we get to harvest an exceedingly friendly Taiwan.

If on the other hand, KMT should win, which at the moment seems quite unlikely, then the loss would be contained, as KMT still has to listen to Taiwanese sentiments in its flirting with PRC.

Sure PRC can get all angry and breath some hot air and smoke, but then that has only made India stronger and more prepared.

So India does not really have anything to lose.

Very well put...

There is some serious angst on the Chinese side about India's ties with Taiwan - hence the curious re-surfacing of a story about India proposing N-weapons cooperation with Taiwan some weeks back. I'd posted an article from Taipei Times (which argued against the re-surfaced story being taken seriously) on this thread - it was replete with references to George Fernandes making multiple visits to Taiwan as soon as the NDA govt. exited power.

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 03 Oct 2010 16:51

shiv wrote:
Ah - the Indian language of fear. Where was China all these years? Off the coast of Argentina?

What exactly does India get out of training Indonesian pilots? Better to exercise with them after they are trained by the Chinese to see what they can do no?

I have a disagreement with you in this matter. The threat is not that India and Indonasia will become enemies. The threat is the reduction of the Indian Influence in the Indonasian Military. One that begins to happen it will be very difficult to regain lost ground.

So in that regard this is a loss.

JMT.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 03 Oct 2010 18:10

Pratyush wrote:
shiv wrote:
Ah - the Indian language of fear. Where was China all these years? Off the coast of Argentina?

What exactly does India get out of training Indonesian pilots? Better to exercise with them after they are trained by the Chinese to see what they can do no?
I have a disagreement with you in this matter. The threat is not that India and Indonasia will become enemies. The threat is the reduction of the Indian Influence in the Indonasian Military. One that begins to happen it will be very difficult to regain lost ground.

So in that regard this is a loss.

JMT.

Ok this is a valid point.

The reason I made that rather provocative post was as follows.

Indonesia asked for training and India held back. Have we checked why? Is Indonesia such a friendly country with territorial aspirations on the Andamans. Many countries like Indonesia, Burma and Bangladesh are perfectly willing to play India off against China. So what do we do? Bribe them? Suck up to them? Threaten them? "Maintain cordial relations"?

The second point is that China as a "sovereign nation" is welcome to develop relations with any country on earth including Bangladesh, Myanmar and Indonesia. There is fig-all that India can do about it short of threatening hostile action. Naturally if the relationship of any of these nations with China ends up being a security threat to India we have to be ready. So how will we know what sort of relationship they have with China? We have to watch the relationship carefully. Oh of course if we could destroy that relationship I would say "Yes, let's do that". But for all the time we spend crying ourselves hoarse - not one person has said how we can help destroy a sovereign relationship between China and Indonesia, Myanmar or Bangladesh without taking hostile action. And what sort of hostile action would we have to take? What would be the trigger?

We can spend all our lives howling that we are reactive but someone please ell me how we can pro actively prevent China from developing any sort of relationship with the littoral states of the Indian ocean? A strawman is being set up that allows us to whine forever.

Under the circumstances all that we can do is to monitor the relationship closely and have a threatening military presence near all Chinese bases to eavesdrop, observe and be ready to block or destroy any assets and facilities if they threaten to affect Indian security. Naturally - the more a country like Bangladesh has a relationship with China - the more the pressure we can apply if that relationship is detrimental to us. We can make life miserable for Bangladeshi trade and with a strong enough military presence such as we have China could do little about it. As far as I can tell this is what India is doing. It is we who don't want to believe it. Why is the A&N command being set up? To let China rule us?

Someone asked "Why don't we set up a string of bases somewhere? Where? In the Indian ocean it is pointless for India to look to countries like Bangladesh, Myanmar or Sri Lanka for bases. I wouldn't mind an Indian base in Gwadar. But heck we have a presence all over the Indian ocean. If we want a base at all - Singapore (which is allowed to use our land bases) should be asked for naval support facilities. A base in Vietnam would be a great idea IMO - a place where we can keep an eye on China's front yard. Add to that enough subs and aircraft carriers - which is work in progress. China's bases too are work in progress. Is China reacting to India or India to China? it is China's lifeline that is more threatened by Indian power than vice versa and we need to keep it that way.

Heck if you go back in history Chinese exports and imports were routed via the silk route via Afghanistan, Iran and a southern branch into India. China also had a land link via Bengal to Chittagong and the Bay of Bengal. Why did the Chinese not use the sea route so much in those days? Even back then he who controlled the Malacca straits controlled the sea route to and from China. And nobody was shipping oil from Arabia. The only export from Arabia those days was jihad.

So why can China revert to the old, easy land route to Arabia and the bay of Bengal? That is because Afghanistan (with the US) and India are sitting in the way. China could come to its knees and request India to allow a land route - but they are an arrogant bunch of fools who deservedly suffer for their stupidity in forgetting history.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 03 Oct 2010 18:17

What is "training to fly Su-30s"? Those people who are extremely enthusiastic about getting Indian babus to make the IAF train Indonesians to fly Su-30s could perhaps educate me what this training is all about and why the IAF should be so soo enthusiastic?

jagga · Post by **jagga** » 03 Oct 2010 22:15

CWG opening ceremony was started with blowing of 'Shankh' and, Hold your breath,with 'Dung Chen', a long trumpet or horn used in Tibetan Buddhist ceremonies and one of the oldest instruments dating back to 1500 BC.

And the guys who were doing the 'Deng Chen' were in traditional Tibetan dress

And I was told CWG opening ceremony will showcase Indian Culture

Shankas · Post by **Shankas** » 03 Oct 2010 22:44

Reading this thread and the past two pages, I see the following.
1) In China saving face is paramount. It is ingrained so much in the people that empires have collapsed in the past and this keeps the PRC leadership awake at night.
2) We can also see China diligently follows and acts on its famous manuals and past thinkers such as The art of war, Confucius, and a few others peppered in the forum.

The problem is this, it is all choreographed like the ugly girl with sweet voice "facedover". Great Strategy on paper, taken no doubt from the great manual that states "thou shall faceover to present peachy bottom to the world", which probably meant use distemper over your ugly wall.

The problem with this is that they can put on a great show when they have the opportunity to rehearse, like the Olympics or tweaking the yuan to raise for a week, when ample notice about the agenda is given by US. But when it comes to events that has 2-parties influencing outcome, like the recent NoKo Boat sinking, Japanese Boat fiasco, their reaction is becoming easy to predict with each event. The present day China is a country that has trained itself to become experts at copying things, but do not bother understanding it. Be it Cisco switches or their own forefathers works.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 04 Oct 2010 00:15

Fareed Z in GPS had Chinese Premier on CNN and one of Premier Wen 's hopes and ambitions is to make China "creative". They are realistic enough to know that just like their Friend Paki lacking in "evolution deficit" Chinese do have imagination deficit thus will always have complex of being eclispesed by people who has the ability and gift being orignator of ideas.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 04 Oct 2010 01:26

In the last century, Asia has been either a colonized continent or a developing continent. It remained a continent where European powers interfered and played their games. China was the only Asian country after WW-II which put up a convincing display of pursuit of national interests, but China too limited its power projection to the periphery. Later on few small countries really managed to shine - Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, may be Malaysia. But the majority of the masses were obsessed with making ends meet.

In the second decade of 21st century, things have really started to change. We have two major powers China and India trying to project their influence across Asia and the world. We have other countries already with nuclear weapons or on their way - Pakistan, North Korea and Iran.

India has till today been able to hold her own, as she was not an expansionist power and tried to act within the parameters laid down by the international community through the U.N.. India did not give others reason to come after her. And even though China had disputes with India, China remained cognizant of the international sentiments and system, and the predominant roles USA and USSR played in this system. China knew that in cases where its 'core interests' were not threatened, it need not involve itself directly, and the threat from India on this score was manageable.

Things have changed. The keepers of the old world order have grown old, economically they are living off favors from China, and China has surged ahead on a number of aspects of power - economical, technological, military and diplomatic. There is not much keeping China back from carving her space as and how China likes, even to the detriment of others like India, except may be a few years.

For the first time in history since India's Independence, India would have to play power politics to stay in the game. Quoting international law to rivals is not going to be sufficient. It is also not some South Asian theater games anymore, but rather covers all of Asia and beyond. India would have to hold on her own in a lawless world against an unchained hegemon determined to have its way.

India has to build her strategic alliances in Asia for that. Every alliance is important, especially ones with strategically located countries. When an alliance would have to be put up to hold China back from its bullying ways, then countries like Indonesia become extremely vital.

If China keeps on tempting Indonesia, and Indonesia falls into China's column, then the sea routes from Indian Ocean to Pacific would be more or less blocked for India in a war. So even if we have alliances in Vietnam, Taiwan, Japan or South Korea, we would not be able to help them much, or they us.

On the other hand, if Indonesia comes into the Indian column, then China can be blackmailed as and when we want.

If Indonesia stays neutral, then we lose a very important strategical option.

India would have to woo countries in the Asian neighborhood constantly and consistently over many years in order to persuade them to join up with India to contain Chinese military aggressiveness.

We have to look at the whole of Asia as the Great Game, a game we absolutely have to win for our survival.

When Russia and Britain played their Great Games, their capitals and core lands were far away from the play-field, so a defeat was not the end of the world. India lies right in the middle of it.

Let's not look at other countries, and value them depending on what have they done for us, but let's think what they can do for us in the future and how to build that future.

BajKhedawal · Post by **BajKhedawal** » 04 Oct 2010 02:14

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/yahoocanada/ ... oad_to_war

When Manmohan Singh warned of China's "new assertiveness" last week, Asia watchers snapped to attention. The normally sage Indian prime minister accused Beijing of seeking to expand its reach in South Asia. With China muscling for resources and geopolitical clout, India, he warned, had better take heed. The timing of the rare public rebuke was especially provocative, as it came hot on the heels of a series of diplomatic flare-ups between the two giants. Temperatures on the continent are rising in step with the Asian rivals' growth.......

Why does he not warn china?

DavidD · Post by **DavidD** » 04 Oct 2010 02:18

RajeshA wrote:Arihant ji,

Great points!

Keep the creative juices flowing!

If India extends a hand to DPP, as you suggest, before the elections, it is possible that after the DPP's win in Taiwanese elections, as at the moment seems likely, we get to harvest an exceedingly friendly Taiwan.

If on the other hand, KMT should win, which at the moment seems quite unlikely, then the loss would be contained, as KMT still has to listen to Taiwanese sentiments in its flirting with PRC.

Sure PRC can get all angry and breath some hot air and smoke, but then that has only made India stronger and more prepared.

So India does not really have anything to lose.

What does India have to gain? Don't just say a friendlier Taiwan(who claims Arunachal Pradesh, btw), but what type of substantial benefit does India gain?

TonyMontana · Post by **TonyMontana** » 04 Oct 2010 02:27

The Empire Strikes Back

"Can you imagine China without an Emperor?" A Japanese friend of mine once said this to me.

China is an Empire. Has been, still is, and there's no trend to change it.

I hope I don't sound arrogant. This is just a cold hard analysis on my part. "China" as a entity has remain unchanged for a long long time. Same system, same bushsh!t, same virtues. To think that China has changed recently into what you see today is naive.

I would invite you to read the first line from "The Romance of the Three Kingdoms". It explains the how China works to a T.

China works in cycles:
1) Chaos. A time of disunity. A period of brutality and blood letting that puts the Japanese to shame. Factional fighting all claiming true mandate of heaven and right to rule the Middle Kingdom. All under heaven. China WAS the world for a long time for East Asians.
2) A New Emperor is crowned. Someone wins. Chances are he's a right B@stard, for he is the one brutal enough to conqour all.
3) Cleaning house. Old scores are settled. Internal purges removes any possible treat to his power.
4) A new Dynasty. Things get settled. How things work are finally sorted. A period of Unity has dawn. This unity is enforced without reservations. Treason is punishable by death. Securing of borders and domination of the "barbarians" begins.
5) Golden age. A cultural golden age follows, where excess from society allows creativity to flourish.
6) Decline. Though various reasons, the Dynasty become corrupt or overtly oppressive, and we start all over again.

We are now in 4. If you read the historical record of Koreans and Japanese from periods where China is in phase 4, you will see many similarities. Arrogant, pushy, Bullying. Then fast forward to Phase 5, what did they write about? A nation of ritual, of courtesy, of art.

Going back to "The Romance of the Three Kingdoms". Strategist Zhu has to be asked three times to work for one of the Kingdoms because he realised that at that time, China is in phase 1. He understands that the natual forces are pushing China into disunity and smart as he is, he can't fight these natural forces. And he was prove right in the end.

So where did that leave us? In my opinion, China is now in Phase 4. The natural forces pushing for a unified China is strongest in a hundred years. Yes there are problems, but these are problems that Historical China has managed many many times before.

I'm hoping for phase 5 to roll around. Where China will be "cool" again. You do realise that we were the "cool kids" for quite a few times in East Asia right?

Thoughts?

DavidD · Post by **DavidD** » 04 Oct 2010 02:29

RajeshA wrote:Published on Oct 02, 2010
By Ajay Banerjee
Dragon closing in on India?: The Tribune, Chandigarh
In the least 10 days, China has gone ahead and set up an in-house training facility for Sukhoi-30 fighter aircraft pilots of the Indonesian Air Force at the Hasanuddin Air Base where the unit is based. Indonesia had also approached India to train its pilots but sources told The Tribune that the proposal was pending with the Ministry of Defence, which was still “studying” the request.

Apart from Russia, India and China are the two major countries operating the Russian Sukhoi-30s. In the past 12 months, Indonesia has acquired 10-odd Sukhoi-30 and Sukhoi -27 and is looking to buy 16 more.

India already trains Malaysia’s Sukhoi-30 pilots. The Singapore Army has a tie-up with the Indian Army to practice on Indian soil using cantonments and firing ranges.

Sources said the Russians were not pleased with the Chinese inroad into Indonesia. For India, it strategically means a lost chance to cement ties with Indonesia. Both Indian and Indonesian navies often practice together.

Chinese pilots, on the pretext of training Indonesians, will now be flying much closer to the Andaman Nicobar Islands, some 150 miles away from Indonesia. Crucially, almost all of China’s sea-borne imported crude oil trade and a large part of its export trade is carried out through the 500-mile wide Strait of Mallaca. China has been fidgety about India’s proximity to these crucial shipping lanes and has developed its Navy to tackle exigencies.
What's wrong with the Defence Ministry?

You're being too harsh on your own government. This is a very natural occurrence. Both India and China are growing into superpowers, so it's natural that their close neighbors get fidgety while the more distance nations try to latch on and ride the tide.

TonyMontana · Post by **TonyMontana** » 04 Oct 2010 02:41

The Son that Brought Down the House

Let me explain another aspect of Chinese thought to you.

Who do the Chinese worship?

This is the biggest question you have to ask. Who do we do this for? For pakistanis it's Allah. For Americans it's God and Country.

For the Chinese? We worship our ancestors.
Not Buddha, not any of those Chinese folk demi-gods. We ask them for favours and things. We worship our parents and their parents and theirs.....Although a lot was lost in the chaotic years of the Culture revolution, a lot of family, especially rural, still have the "Family Book", that traces your lineage back as far as 30-40 generations.

The greatest insult you can call a Chinese is "the son that ruined your House". We must protect what our ancestors worked so hard for us. Like in academia today, it is our greatest shame to forsake our ancestors.

Now you know the why.

TonyMontana · Post by **TonyMontana** » 04 Oct 2010 02:49

A Necessary Evil

Please read this:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legalism_( ... hilosophy)

Although if you could read Chinese, these thoughts are a lot more elegantly laid out, but it's a basic explaination that I think will let you understand the Chinese a little bit more.

The CCP is now a necessary evil. The pain of removing them is too great and the out come of removing them too uncertain for the Chinese. So it motivates the Chinese to keep them in power. They are b@stards. But they are our b@stards.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 04 Oct 2010 02:50

DavidD wrote: What does India have to gain? Don't just say a friendlier Taiwan(who claims Arunachal Pradesh, btw), but what type of substantial benefit does India gain?

India has to gain China's friendship.

China will be nobody's friend in Asia, as long as China thinks it can be the boss. China has to learn, that it is not the only country in Asia with 'core interests'. Others have 'core interests' too.

Pakistan is India's 'core interest'. Pakistani land has been India's core land for millenia. If China has proliferated nukes to Pakistan to thwart India's moves to pacify it and to box in India, it is only fair that India tries to do the same in Taiwan.
It has been India's efforts that Pakistan would one day leave aside its enmity and embrace democratic India as a peaceful neighbor. China has not let that happen. So it is only fair, that India gives a democratic Taiwan also the capacity to resist an authoritarian PRC.

It is also India's 'core interest' to have Tibet as an independent buffer state between India and China.

Unless India fights China to a standstill in Asia (not necessarily militarily), the CPC/PLA combine would not stop until it has forced every country in East Asia, South East Asia, South Asia, and Central Asia to follow Beijing's diktat.

The Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi remarked in the ASEAN regional meeting that “China is a big country and other countries are small countries, and that is just a fact." w.r.t. South China Sea. That is bullying.

Peace in Asia depends on Asian countries making sure that China has no other option but to remain peaceful with other countries in Asia. Only if China's power is balanced in Asia, would the authoritarian leadership of PRC resist the temptation of pushing PRC into a war with some neighbor, which would save lives of all Asians, including that of Chinese people.

China is not a democracy. The Chinese people do not get to decide what the policies of their country is. It also seems the Chinese people are not to eager to take that responsibility. That is why other nations have to influence Chinese policies towards others, by limiting China's elbowroom.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 04 Oct 2010 02:52

TonyMontana ji,

Please post those posts in the PRC Thread. They are related more to China, then to the issue here at hand.

Thank you.

TonyMontana · Post by **TonyMontana** » 04 Oct 2010 03:19

RajeshA wrote:TonyMontana ji,

Please post those posts in the PRC Thread. They are related more to China, then to the issue here at hand.

Thank you.

Sure thing. Any mod please move it if needed. But I was gonna use the posts above to lead into this post, which I think is on topic for this thread.

It's the Scared Dog that Barks

I hunt pigs with dogs. Captain Cookers with mean hooks. Trained my own pack. So I would like to think I know a little bit about dogs.

A barking dog, unless trained as a bailer, is a scared dog. My 90lb Boxer/Ridgeback would sit on the porch all day and watch the world go pass. A dog confident in his ability don't bark. He watch you for the command and rip out throats.

This bring us back to China. China right now is in the beginning of Phase 4. She is scared. She thinks the mailman is another dog out to challenge her territory. So she barks and scares the kids across the road. What do you do with a barking dog? If you yell right back and shake his fence, he's gonna bite you out of fear. You're messed up and he's gonna get put down. Lose-lose. So what do you do? You walk right pass, chest out, confident, doing your own thing. You ignore it. The owners (business interests) has keep the dog behind a fence. Carry a stick in the unfortunate event tha the dog jumps the fence. But at the moment, that fence is pretty high. In a few years when the dog grows up and when the owners train the dog properly, the dog will stop piss on your lawn and charge you behind the fence as you pull up your drive way.

I hope this explains how the Chinese thinks a little bit. You can't plan on managing the Chinese threat if you don't know what you're managing.

DavidD · Post by **DavidD** » 04 Oct 2010 03:24

RajeshA wrote:
DavidD wrote: What does India have to gain? Don't just say a friendlier Taiwan(who claims Arunachal Pradesh, btw), but what type of substantial benefit does India gain?
India has to gain China's friendship.

China will be nobody's friend in Asia, as long as China thinks it can be the boss. China has to learn, that it is not the only country in Asia with 'core interests'. Others have 'core interests' too.

Pakistan is India's 'core interest'. Pakistani land has been India's core land for millenia. If China has proliferated nukes to Pakistan to thwart India's moves to pacify it and to box in India, it is only fair that India tries to do the same in Taiwan.
It has been India's efforts that Pakistan would one day leave aside its enmity and embrace democratic India as a peaceful neighbor. China has not let that happen. So it is only fair, that India gives a democratic Taiwan also the capacity to resist an authoritarian PRC.

It is also India's 'core interest' to have Tibet as an independent buffer state between India and China.

Unless India fights China to a standstill in Asia (not necessarily militarily), the CPC/PLA combine would not stop until it has forced every country in East Asia, South East Asia, South Asia, and Central Asia to follow Beijing's diktat.

The Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi remarked in the ASEAN regional meeting that “China is a big country and other countries are small countries, and that is just a fact." w.r.t. South China Sea. That is bullying.

Peace in Asia depends on Asian countries making sure that China has no other option but to remain peaceful with other countries in Asia. Only if China's power is balanced in Asia, would the authoritarian leadership of PRC resist the temptation of pushing PRC into a war with some neighbor, which would save lives of all Asians, including that of Chinese people.

China is not a democracy. The Chinese people do not get to decide what the policies of their country is. It also seems the Chinese people are not to eager to take that responsibility. That is why other nations have to influence Chinese policies towards others, by limiting China's elbowroom.

Is India strong enough to do what you say? You can bluff all you want, but do you have the cards? It really doesn't matter, actually. All it matters is if the Chinese think you have the cards. They don't. So what you'll get is not friendship, but confrontations. Not directly, of course, but indirectly, such as perhaps supplying money and arms to the Maoist insurgents. India can retaliate by perhaps supplying money and arms to Tibetan separatists, and it'll be a battle to see which one will hurt more. Which one do you think is gonna hurt more? Again, it doesn't matter. I think it's safe to say that the Chinese and most people in the world would believe that the Maoists can do more damage, so that's the course they'll take.

You're partly right, Peace in East Asia can indeed be achieved by making sure that China has no choice but to remain peaceful, but you left out the part where it can also be achieved by making sure that the countries around China have no choice but to remain peaceful. Which route will Asia take? It depends on which one is stronger. China, or its neighbors. All this cooperation with Taiwan and stapled visa crap are minor things, the difference maker will be the capability of the players in this game.

TonyMontana · Post by **TonyMontana** » 04 Oct 2010 03:31

DavidD wrote: ...

We're gonna have to stop posting together. BRFites will think they are under precision drone attacks.

So this is me pre-empting the drone attack comments. It make you "uncool" if someone already pre-empted your zingers. So hopfully it wouldn't get derailed too much.

sanjaykumar · Post by **sanjaykumar** » 04 Oct 2010 04:26

So she barks and scares the kids across the road. What do you do with a barking dog? If you yell right back and shake his fence, he's gonna bite you out of fear.

I had this experience once- I lunged at the dog, towards its' fence and it ran off yelping. It came barking at me again but I was too busy laughing.

sanjaykumar · Post by **sanjaykumar** » 04 Oct 2010 04:35

India can retaliate by perhaps supplying money and arms to Tibetan separatists, and it'll be a battle to see which one will hurt more. Which one do you think is gonna hurt more? Again, it doesn't matter. I think it's safe to say that the Chinese and most people in the world would believe that the Maoists can do more damage, so that's the course they'll take.

So let us see Maoists in heavily populated parts of India are going to exhume the good Chairman and establish his revolution in Eastern India. It is much more likely that they will be killed barehanded by the general population.

As it is more likely that the West and Russia will help Tibet break free of China-right now they don't need to, because China is not in any position to threaten them.

Let us wait to see who wins this year's Imperialist-political propaganda prize-does it ring no bell? Let us see if the west wants to start teaching China a lesson. India is in a good position. The same west is fighting its war in Pakistan and escalating it, their bosom buddies from the cold war. India will likely have the last laugh at China.

TonyMontana · Post by **TonyMontana** » 04 Oct 2010 04:50

sanjaykumar wrote: I had this experience once- I lunged at the dog, towards its' fence and it ran off yelping. It came barking at me again but I was too busy laughing.

You must be very proud.