Operation Sindoor - Post Conflict Analysis

[vera_k]

If others start training their new generations on nuclear weapons skills, India will have to do the same to keep skills current. India will need a new test site as well in all likelihood.

[RCase]

Meanwhile Trump: ‘Make Nukes Great Again.’
....... Because what’s world peace without a little radiation nostalgia?

Result of a long trip to Malaysia and watching Adventures of Jimmy Neutron on AirForce 1. Got him counting neutrons.
Hairstyle - coincidence?

[Prem Kumar]

My take:
From a purely strategic standpoint, India gains little by conducting another live test. The deterrent is credible, and the political costs are high. Nuclear tests today are more about signaling than design validation.

(India’s arsenal is already credible and survivable, with tested warheads and delivery systems. Another test might slightly improve confidence in new designs, but India doesn’t strictly need a test to maintain deterrence.)

(Alternatives: accelerate subcritical tests, refine delivery systems, or expand surveillance/command readiness — all without exploding a bomb.

Couldn't disagree more

1) If US tests, it will be stupid on our part not to. Political costs will be minimal, because we can be sure that China & Russia will
2) With innumerable tests, the US itself is not confident of just running simulations. We have barely enough data points and not nearly as sophisticated a simulation mechanism
3) Our H-bomb most likely underperformed. We need to not only retest it but also should test a mega-tonnage weapon. You cannot simulate your way out of a low-yield, likely-failed, single test while your desired yield in today's time is 100X
4) Yields --> warhead designs --> missile dimensions --> SSBN dimensions. We cannot afford to build SSBNs without having predictable thermonuclear yields in MIRV configuration

[Tanaji]

3) Our H-bomb most likely underperformed. We need to not only retest it but also should test a mega-tonnage weapon. You cannot simulate your way out of a low-yield, likely-failed, single test while your desired yield in today's time is 100X

It was a fizzle? Dr. Anil Kakodkar lied? Was Dr. Santhanam right after all?

IED laid, I run to hide in my kave kamplex…

(Not directed at you specifically Premji)

[Prem Kumar]

Not taking the bait Tanaji! Otherwise, we will have another 100 page thread

Even if it was successful, a 45 KT weapon test is no substitute for a megaton test

[Amber G.]

My take:
From a purely strategic standpoint, India gains little by conducting another live test.

Couldn't disagree more

Thanks — I welcome the push. I am/will be responding with a couple of points in the Nuclear dhaga.

[SSridhar]

How to Survive the New Nuclear Age - Vipin Narang & Pranay Vaddi, Foreign Affairs

And in May, the world witnessed India and Pakistan, two nuclear-armed powers, strike each other’s heartlands with conventional weapons in the aftermath of a terror attack, a confrontation that—already unprecedented—could have escalated to a nuclear standoff.

Really? Did TSP strike at India's heartland? What is this nonsense?

[A_Gupta]

I suppose trying to land a missile in Delhi could count as a TSP strike against India's heartland.

But I came here to ask whether the ongoing military exercises tell us anything about the upcoming future confrontation.

[bala]

Really? Did TSP strike at India's heartland? What is this nonsense?

My take on all US/China scholarly and not-so scholarly writing is that they engage in pure propaganda to advance their own agendas. They are so far from the truth that I don't believe them one bit. Tis hard to gauge which is correct and which sections are wrong. A safe assumption is that they are mostly rubbish. Many in this forum quote such publications as if they are gospel truth, which they aren't one bit. The Pak nuke affair is one such nonsense foisted upon the world by these worthies ie. the US and China. Half truths, BS, some facts mixed with some pure bullcrap is what they peddle. Pak is not a nuclear power, it is propped up by the US and China and that is the fact. Best bet is not to believe anything coming out from them and you will be mostly correct in your thinking, which is shraddha really.

One thing I learned from a finance guy is that all news/publications/TV shows require sponsorship. You want to get on TV/publications/news, very simple, get a sponsor and things will happen quickly and you can become famous. That is true in the US. Now China has infiltrated all such sponsorship and their money does wonders for them. India is lacking in such thinking.

[SSridhar]

But I came here to ask whether the ongoing military exercises tell us anything about the upcoming future confrontation.

From the moment the magnitude of this Ex. was revealed, it struck me as another 'Brasstacks'.

[Amber G.]

Really? Did TSP strike at India's heartland? ..

Of course, NOT. Just like in Mahabhara it was all about the trade deals!

Picture Credit; Inspired by BRF