Operation Sindoor - Post Conflict Analysis

[vera_k]

If others start training their new generations on nuclear weapons skills, India will have to do the same to keep skills current. India will need a new test site as well in all likelihood.

[RCase]

Meanwhile Trump: ‘Make Nukes Great Again.’
....... Because what’s world peace without a little radiation nostalgia?

Result of a long trip to Malaysia and watching Adventures of Jimmy Neutron on AirForce 1. Got him counting neutrons.
Hairstyle - coincidence?

[Prem Kumar]

My take:
From a purely strategic standpoint, India gains little by conducting another live test. The deterrent is credible, and the political costs are high. Nuclear tests today are more about signaling than design validation.

(India’s arsenal is already credible and survivable, with tested warheads and delivery systems. Another test might slightly improve confidence in new designs, but India doesn’t strictly need a test to maintain deterrence.)

(Alternatives: accelerate subcritical tests, refine delivery systems, or expand surveillance/command readiness — all without exploding a bomb.

Couldn't disagree more

1) If US tests, it will be stupid on our part not to. Political costs will be minimal, because we can be sure that China & Russia will
2) With innumerable tests, the US itself is not confident of just running simulations. We have barely enough data points and not nearly as sophisticated a simulation mechanism
3) Our H-bomb most likely underperformed. We need to not only retest it but also should test a mega-tonnage weapon. You cannot simulate your way out of a low-yield, likely-failed, single test while your desired yield in today's time is 100X
4) Yields --> warhead designs --> missile dimensions --> SSBN dimensions. We cannot afford to build SSBNs without having predictable thermonuclear yields in MIRV configuration

[Tanaji]

3) Our H-bomb most likely underperformed. We need to not only retest it but also should test a mega-tonnage weapon. You cannot simulate your way out of a low-yield, likely-failed, single test while your desired yield in today's time is 100X

It was a fizzle? Dr. Anil Kakodkar lied? Was Dr. Santhanam right after all?

IED laid, I run to hide in my kave kamplex…

(Not directed at you specifically Premji)

[Prem Kumar]

Not taking the bait Tanaji! Otherwise, we will have another 100 page thread

Even if it was successful, a 45 KT weapon test is no substitute for a megaton test

[Amber G.]

My take:
From a purely strategic standpoint, India gains little by conducting another live test.

Couldn't disagree more

Thanks — I welcome the push. I am/will be responding with a couple of points in the Nuclear dhaga.

[SSridhar]

How to Survive the New Nuclear Age - Vipin Narang & Pranay Vaddi, Foreign Affairs

And in May, the world witnessed India and Pakistan, two nuclear-armed powers, strike each other’s heartlands with conventional weapons in the aftermath of a terror attack, a confrontation that—already unprecedented—could have escalated to a nuclear standoff.

Really? Did TSP strike at India's heartland? What is this nonsense?

[A_Gupta]

I suppose trying to land a missile in Delhi could count as a TSP strike against India's heartland.

But I came here to ask whether the ongoing military exercises tell us anything about the upcoming future confrontation.

[bala]

Really? Did TSP strike at India's heartland? What is this nonsense?

My take on all US/China scholarly and not-so scholarly writing is that they engage in pure propaganda to advance their own agendas. They are so far from the truth that I don't believe them one bit. Tis hard to gauge which is correct and which sections are wrong. A safe assumption is that they are mostly rubbish. Many in this forum quote such publications as if they are gospel truth, which they aren't one bit. The Pak nuke affair is one such nonsense foisted upon the world by these worthies ie. the US and China. Half truths, BS, some facts mixed with some pure bullcrap is what they peddle. Pak is not a nuclear power, it is propped up by the US and China and that is the fact. Best bet is not to believe anything coming out from them and you will be mostly correct in your thinking, which is shraddha really.

One thing I learned from a finance guy is that all news/publications/TV shows require sponsorship. You want to get on TV/publications/news, very simple, get a sponsor and things will happen quickly and you can become famous. That is true in the US. Now China has infiltrated all such sponsorship and their money does wonders for them. India is lacking in such thinking.

[SSridhar]

But I came here to ask whether the ongoing military exercises tell us anything about the upcoming future confrontation.

From the moment the magnitude of this Ex. was revealed, it struck me as another 'Brasstacks'.

[Amber G.]

Really? Did TSP strike at India's heartland? ..

Of course, NOT. Just like in Mahabhara it was all about the trade deals!

Picture Credit; Inspired by BRF

[gakakkad]

If trump is to be believed the porkies tested . We were ahead of the curve in that case post op sindoor . Our next test should be on pisslamabad.

[Tanaji]

If trump is to be believed the porkies tested . We were ahead of the curve in that case post op sindoor . Our next test should be on pisslamabad.

Saar lets take this discussion to the international nuke dhaaga… I dont believe this for a minute…

[Amber G.]

If trump is to be believed....<snip>

I know there are many Trump fans here.. but in the same interview when he said "Pak tested" he also said"

“But I stopped, as an example — India does a lotta business with us. They were going to war. They were gonna have a nuclear war with Pakistan. … The Prime Minister of Pakistan stood up the other day and he said, ‘If Donald Trump didn’t get involved, many millions of people would be dead right now.’ That was a bad war he was ready to start. Shot down airplanes all over the place. That really — that was gonna be a bad war. And I told both of them, I said, ‘If you guys don’t work out a deal fast, you’re not gonna do any business with the United States.’ And they do a lotta business with the United States. And they were both great leaders, and they worked out a deal, and they stopped the war. That would’ve been a bad war. It would’ve been a nuclear war.”

Some clipsviewtopic.php?p=2664033#p2664033

[Aditya_V]

One extreme way of understanding Trump was, India took Pakistani Pants off and were going to Nuke them in response to the intercepted Shaheen missile. I think firing of the Nuclear capable Shaheen missile was the trigger, GOI and Indian Armed forces were pretty charitable to the Pakis till then.

[uddu]

Cross posting from Modi 3.0
Why India Let Pakistan Reveal Its Own Defeat || Defence Mantra
In this episode of Defence Mantra, Nitin A. Gokhale breaks down the true scale of India’s retaliation, including what the Pakistani military didn’t want the world to know.
A recently leaked internal report and independent assessments now confirm that seven additional military sites were hit by the Indian Air Force, pushing the total damage to over $7.6 billion. From AWACS and F-16s to key radar and missile installations, Pakistan’s air defence network was badly crippled.
But why didn’t India announce these hits publicly? As Nitin explains, this was a calculated silence—a strategic decision to let Pakistan's own repair tenders and leaks confirm the scale of the damage, preventing any denial or propaganda.
We also discuss in the show how Chinese-supplied systems failed, the success of Indian systems, and how India is quietly rewriting the rules of military deterrence in the region.
Tune in for the full breakdown on India’s precision power, strategic messaging, and how Op Sindoor redefined cross-border military response.

[Amber G.]

The plane counts is now to Eight planes!
They shot down seven. The eighth was badly wounded"

[SSridhar]

The plane counts is now to Eight planes!

I think that Trump was always referring to PAF's losses. He will increase it further in coming weeks in line with our own ACM's assessment given below.

“Three hangars were also damaged across different stations. Within these hangars and on the tarmac, we have clear evidence of one C-130 class aircraft destroyed, along with four to five F-16 fighter jets that were based at these stations,” the Air Chief Marshal said.

He further revealed that evidence indicated the loss of one long-range platform—likely an AEW&C or SIGINT aircraft — struck at a distance of more than 300 km, along with “five high-tech fighters between the F-16 and JF-17 class”.

[A_Gupta]

Lt Gen K.J.S. Dhillon—one of India’s most respected Army commanders—returns with his explosive new book: Operation SINDOOR: The Untold Story of India’s Deep Strikes Inside Pakistan. The book takes us deep inside India's military strike on Pakistan's terror bases but also shares riveting details about how India's air defence systems spectacularly defended India's cities including shooting down Pakistan's ballistic missile Fateh-1 over Haryana, Sirsa.
https://youtu.be/htgdlByMCx4?si=a0TMsJfGcL6uS8AY

[Aditya_V]

I guess putting Shaheen missile is pretty explosive, so for few years it will be called Fateh 1 till it will be accepted it was a Shaheen, when they saw neither Drones, ACG 400, Shaheen wre getting through , the Pakis begged for ceasefire

[Amber G.]

Posted here for relevance:
India hits out at Pakistan over Trump’s remarks on Pakistan’s secret Nuclear tests.


>>India’s MEA Spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal:

“Clandestine and illegal nuclear activities are in keeping with Pakistan’s history, that is centered around decades of smuggling, export control violations, secret partnerships, AQ Khan network and further proliferation. India has always drawn the attention of the international community to these aspects of Pakistan’s record. In this backdrop, we have taken note of President Trump’s comment about Pakistan’s nuclear testing.” -

[Amber G.]

Before anyone (from our MAGA fans) acts shocked at India’s MEA statement, let’s remember Pakistan’s “peaceful” nuclear track record that the entire international community already knows:


- A.Q. Khan’s global vending machine: centrifuges to Iran, weapon blueprints to Libya, tech swaps with North Korea.
- Decades of smuggling maraging steel, ring magnets, carbon fiber, vacuum pumps — you name it, they tried to sneak it in.
- Export-control violations across Europe, the Gulf, and East Asia using dummy firms and fake end-user certificates.
- Ballistic-missile barter deals with Pyongyang: missiles in, enrichment know-how out.
- Front companies busted repeatedly in the U.S. and EU for trying to source restricted tech.


So yes — when someone mentions “clandestine nuclear activities,” this isn’t India making it up. It’s literally Pakistan’s public résumé.

Amber G. - (For the record)

[Rakesh]

Pakistan's repair work, even after 6 months, shows how hard India hit
https://www.indiatoday.in/world/story/i ... 2025-11-18
18 Nov 2025

It has been over six months since India and Pakistan engaged in a four-day war, yet Pakistan has not been able to repair the damage inflicted by Indian forces on its vital installations. OSINT expert Damien Symon's revelations of repairs at the Nur Khan Airbase poke big holes in Pakistan's claims of victory against India in the May conflict.

[Prem Kumar]

Lets hope Op Sindoor 2.0 finishes what 1.0 started

Given that Paki PM officially acknowledged their hand in the Delhi terror attack & Ricin biowarfare plan, time to take the gloves off

Nothing should be left of Pakistan except burning embers and civil war among clans in a country broken into 10 pieces

[Dilbu]

GOI is playing things close to the chest for now. There is a massive domestic combing operation going on, including operations against maoists and NE terrorist groups. Looks like gloves are off on that front. Is this terror attack being treated primarily as a domestic terror incident with backing from foreign elements? Or are we cleaning up our backyard first before thinking of going after TSP in a massive way? Also big orders have been placed for US weapon systems. Are we cutting a deal with the US to stay neutral?

[Amber G.]

Here he goes Again On May conflict, US Prez Donald Trump claims the Pakistani PM called him to say, "thank you" & PM Modi called him to say, "We're not going to go to war".

PS: 1st call between Trump, Modi took place on June 17th, over a month after the conflict