Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

[SSridhar]

^ The fake combat capabilities refers to the corruption in PLARF which led to discovery of the older-model DF-5 ICBM silos being fake.

[A_Gupta]

Missing ICBM silos???

[drnayar]

^ The fake combat capabilities refers to the corruption in PLARF which led to discovery of the older-model DF-5 ICBM silos being fake.

in addition to water fuelled ballistic missiles

the military is always a highway for corruption with lots of opportunities in corruption , procurements, contracts etc etc.. same everywhere

[bala]

Not just military, but the entire system is quite corrupt. Some years back the Guy in charge of China HSR stole billions and ran to Kanada for good. Most CCP & PLA blokes have a second family parked in places like the US, Kanada, Europe and funnel their loot to them. Most of the chinese are in some low end jobs/or self appointed jobs but they drive expensive cars, live in expensive neighborhoods, dress all designer stuff and they sport the latest and greatest in gadgets. If the US wants to sqeeze China, all it has to do is sqeeze the second family of CCP/PLA and things will automatically fall in line.

[A_Gupta]

China unlikely to aid Maduro if US acts in Venezuela, but could gain from fallout: experts
Beijing condemns US pressure on Caracas but offers limited support, prioritising its economic interests and long-term gains
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/article ... e=homepage

Beijing is unlikely to offer military help to Venezuela if the United States moves against President Nicolas Maduro, analysts say, but it could still benefit from a shift in Washington’s global posture that revives old notions of spheres of influence, including one that might one day favour its ambitions towards Taiwan.

....
....
Beijing’s caution follows a familiar pattern, as it rarely defends partners under military pressure, instead focusing on safeguarding economic interests and political access, experts heard by the Post said.

...
For China, which prizes stability in oil-producing nations, the prospect of another US intervention in its main Latin American partner is a source of both frustration and calculation.

“They will condemn US bullying, but they will not lift a finger to help Maduro,” Ellis said. “For China, it is about positioning for the aftermath, not defending the present.”

[A_Gupta]

https://youtu.be/UuNKX6740x8?si=oTBj2FX1RHg3oGLw
The claim is that the Chinese one trillion dollar trade surplus is largely from China making subprime loans to importers in developing countries.

[SSridhar]

One hopes that the US and the Japanese are keeping a very close watch on the Indo-China Sea PLAN exercises around Taiwan, beset as they are with their own problems. The US has huge internal issues, external issues like tariff wars, Ukraine, Venezuela etc whereas China is not frittering away resources anywhere else and spreading itself thin.

[ramana]

NSA Doval is visiting China for SR talks.

[A_Gupta]

Michael Pettis:
https://x.com/michaelxpettis/status/2011773080235098185
1/4
Aggregate financing in China, the most widely-used proxy for total debt, ended 2025 at RMB 442.12 trillion, an 8.3% increase over last year's outstanding amount. This is a relatively small increase in total debt compared to earlier years.

2/4
But of course, nominal GDP growth is also much lower. So the 35.6 6 trillion R&B increase in aggregate financing in 2025 represents a 12 percentage point increase in China's debt to GDP ratio. This is higher than the 11 percentage point increase in 2024 and 2023.

3/4
China's debt data isn't always comparable over time, but I think only the COVID year of 2020 saw a higher increase in China's debt-to-GDP ratio, and because this was partially reversed in 2021, the average annual increase over the two years was only ten percentage points.

4/4
What does this tell us? It tells us that it is taking more and more debt to achieve China's GDP growth targets. If the 2026 GDP growth target in 2026 is 5%, as many believe, it will probably require a 12-14 percentage point increase in China's debt burden to manage it.

---
Total debt end of 2025: RMB 442.12 trillion
China's nominal GDP for 2025 is projected to be around 140 trillion RMB
Debt-to-GDP-ration = 316%.

G2 countries subsist on a mountain of debt.

[A_Gupta]

The Taipei Times on the latest military purge in Communist China:
China purge could disrupt chain of command: source
https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan ... 2003851179

China’s latest military purge underscores systemic risks in its shift from collective leadership to sole rule under Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平), and could disrupt its chain of command and military capabilities, a national security official said yesterday.

If decisionmaking within the Chinese Communist Party has become “irrational” under one-man rule, the Taiwan Strait and the regional situation must be approached with extreme caution, given unforeseen risks, they added.

The anonymous official made the remarks as China’s Central Military Commission Vice Chairman Zhang Youxia (張又俠) and Joint Staff Department Chief of Staff Liu Zhenli (劉振立) were reportedly being investigated for suspected “serious violations of discipline and law.”
...
...
The purging of Zhang and Li is believed to be part of efforts to reform the military and ensure its loyalty to Xi.

It is part of a broader “anti-corruption” drive that has punished more than 200,000 officials since Xi came to power in 2012.

Zhang is the most senior vice chairman in the commission, has long been regarded as one of Xi’s most reliable allies and was a key figure in stabilizing the political situation in China.

His absence from several high-level meetings since Jan. 1 caused suspicions about his fall.

....

[VinodTK]

Indian Troops Entered Bhutan &...': Former DGMO Details How India STOPPED China In Doklam

Former DG Military Operations Lt Gen A.K. Bhatt has revealed new details about the 2017 Doklam crisis, highlighting India’s bold response to Chinese attempts to change the status quo at the tri-junction. As Chinese troops advanced with bulldozers to build a road, Indian soldiers formed a human barrier, while Border Roads Organisation dozers directly confronted Chinese machines, halting construction. Bhatt emphasized the security stakes, noting that if China had completed the road, it could have given the Chinese access to the Jampheri Ridge that oversees the Siliguri Corridor. The move, executed with political clarity, involved Indian troops crossing into Bhutanese territory to physically block China, triggering a tense 72-day standoff. Former DGMO outlines this unconventional strategy and underscored India’s commitment to protecting its strategic interests and maintaining the established norms along the Doklam plateau.

[drnayar]

US accuses China of secret nuclear testing as it calls for broad new arms treaty after New START

"I can reveal that the U.S. government is aware that China has conducted nuclear explosive tests, including preparing for tests with designated yields in the hundreds of tons," U.S. Under Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security ‌Thomas DiNanno told a Disarmament ‌Conference in Geneva.

The Chinese military "sought to conceal testing by obfuscating the nuclear explosions because it recognized these tests violate test ban commitments. China has used 'decoupling', a method to decrease the effectiveness of seismic monitoring, to hide their activities from the world," he said.

DiNanno said China ‌had conducted one such "yield-producing test" on June 22, 2020.
. [ right after Galwan !]
Decoupled Testing
National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2012. The Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty: Technical Issues for the United States. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. https://doi.org/10.17226/5023.

https://m.economictimes.com/news/defenc ... 992041.cms

[VinodTK]

^^^^ Did China conduct nuclear test days after Galwan clash? Here’s what US official revealed

[A_Gupta]

The Taipei Times reports:
https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/ ... 2003852123

US House bill warns China off Taiwan

RESTRAINTS: Should China’s actions pose any threat to Taiwan’s security, economic or social systems, China would be excluded from major financial institutions, the bill says

By Sam Garcia / Staff writer, with CNA

The US House of Representatives on Monday passed the PROTECT Taiwan Act, which states that Washington would exclude China from participating in major global financial organizations if its actions directly threaten Taiwan’s security.

The bill, proposed by Republican Representative Frank Lucas, passed with 395 votes in favor and two against.

It stipulates that if China’s actions pose any threat to Taiwan’s security, economic or social systems, the US would, “to the maximum extent practicable,” exclude Beijing from international financial institutions, including the G20, the Bank for International Settlements and the Financial Stability Board.

[A_Gupta]

The Xi family allegedly was profiting enormously from Venezuelan oil. This might be one reason Trump took Venezuela.

This video exposes the hidden wealth empire of Xi Jinping’s family, shattering the official narrative of clean leadership. Despite claims since 2012 that relatives exited business, evidence shows no real severance—instead, assets moved into shadowy proxies and shell companies.

Xi’s sister Qi Qiaoqiao quietly dominates lucrative sectors: Venezuelan oil deals netting billions annually via special quotas, rare earth monopolies in Jiangxi, concrete supply in Shenzhen-Guangzhou, and deep ties to China Ping An Insurance. Estimated family-controlled assets exceed 20 trillion RMB (~$3 trillion USD).

The script details money-laundering via white glove Chen Zhi, whose 127,271 Bitcoin ($15 billion) and London properties were seized by US-UK authorities in 2026. His repatriation to China is portrayed as silencing to protect the family.

Ultimately, the decade of “anti-corruption” is framed as a brutal wealth centralization, turning national resources into one family’s private fortune—while ordinary people pay the price.

[Deans]

I read the manuscript of the unpublished book,
My take on the Gen Naravane book controversy in my latest blogpost.

https://rpdeans.blogspot.com/2026/02/ch ... -book.html

[A_Gupta]

Chinese control over Xinjiang and Tibet is maintained with massive funds from the interior, fund flows that are drying up.
2026: The Four Provinces Ready to Explode First When Beijing Loses Control | Digging into China
https://youtu.be/WMN-9D9naVo?si=UwjNa1h6qd7gCTIK


The other two provinces are Guangdong, which is the goose with the golden eggs and being squeezed to support the impecunious northern provinces; and Shanghai.

It may seem implausible, but it does match a recurring pattern in Chinese history.

[chetak]

This is a big move against cheen and also a huge financial blow, considering the ginormous amount of data that India was up linking via these carriers

India bans China linked satellites from April 2026, channels move

Apr 04, 2026

Indian TV channels have switched to non-Chinese satellites like India's GSAT and U.S.-based Intelsat, following a government order that banned China-linked providers (like Chinasat and ApStar) from April 2026.

This shift is part of India's push for more secure and local satellite services.

AsiaSat granted extension to June 30

AsiaSat, a major satellite operator that says it is not linked to China, was given a temporary extension for all international TV channels with downlink-only permission and occasional sporting-event use until June 30, 2026, and has flagged contract issues with broadcasters like JioStar and Zee as they transition to other providers.

The company is still talking with Indian authorities about its future here.

Even with the extension, AsiaSat's role in India is shrinking as more broadcasters make the switch.

https://www.newsbytesapp.com/news/enter ... -move/tldr

[Manish_Sharma]

A friend of mine is currently traveling across Africa to secure supply chains. A lot of raw materials from the continent are increasingly being routed to China, which is starting to impact European access.

Interestingly, someone who had barely stepped out of an air-conditioned office was last seen in Casablanca two weeks ago and is now mostly reachable only over text due to patchy connectivity.

From what they’re observing on the ground, elements like neodymium and samarium are drawing significant attention. Morocco, often seen as a French gateway into Africa, is active but for now, it seems largely capped at phosphates rather than rare earth. So more sources for increased requirement (from Radar to EW).

Bayan Obo (Inner Mongolia) accounts for ~80%+ of China’s reserves, which are 50% of world reserve and still china is importing raw material from Africa. China imports rare-earth raw material from Africa not because it lacks resources, but to protect, optimize, and dominate the full value chain. Kill any competition in the business..


https://x.com/alpha_defense/status/2043 ... 03773?s=20

[Manish_Sharma]

https://x.com/LungaMrhetjha/status/2044 ... 32166?s=20

When Russia began its special military operation in Ukraine in 2022, most people were focused on tanks and war, but China was focused on something else. It focused on sanctions.

Not just watching them, but studying them like an exam. The reason why they did this was because the West did not just sanction a few companies and/or individuals connected to the Russian Federation state. They hit the whole system. They froze reserves and blocked banks and cut Russia off from global payment systems such as SWIFT. The dollar was heavily weaponized.

China saw the whole thing unfolding and realized that it could also happen to them at anytime, especially given as to how precarious the situation has been with Taiwan. So they decided to be proactive in preparation for those sanctions.

They quietly set up a high level internal task force. It is a proper economic war room comprising prominent figures from the central bank, finance regulators, state banks and commerce officials and reports to He Lifeng, Vice Premier for economic and financial affairs.

The sole purpose of this group is study sanctions and how best to insulate China from those sanctions should they be invoked against them at some point in time.

They started studying Russia in real time, to see where it was struggling and where it was coping or doing well. They also zoomed in on the loopholes picked up by the Russian federation in the systems of those who were sanctioning them.

They looked at things like, how Russia reroutes trade through third countries and how oil still gets sold through shadow networks, and the movement of payments outside the Western system.

Then they asked the real question: If China gets sanctioned, can we survive that level of pressure?

And it only made sense for them to ask this question since China is at a greater risk than Russia due to its high level of exposure. It is a huge net exporter with a wider dollar exposure and trillions held in foreign reserves.

It became apparent that they had to come up with a back-up plan, especially one that is rooted in actual infrastructure.

The first thing that they did was to build an alternative to SWIFT. China has CPS. It's basically a payment system that can move money without relying fully on Western rails.

The second move was to push for the Chinese renmimbi (yuan) in global finance. The logic is pretty simple really; the more countries trade in their currency, the less power the $USD has over them.

The third move, and perhaps the most strategic, was to stockpile and diversify reserves. This essentially ensures less dependence on US assets. At the same time, China was pushing for more gold as a store of value, while reducing dollar exposure.

China didn’t just end it there. They took it a notch further by building sanctions resistant trade networks, using intermediaries, regional banks and layered transactions. This was done very well by Russia to ease the blow, but China scaled it up more.

And lastly, since it is big on light and heavy rare earths, China was smart enough to reduce reliance on foreign tech. This was crucial to do since semiconductors can be used as a choke point by the hostile West.

Russia is not just an ally to China right now. It is a live case study. China is watching everything. Where Russia gets hit, they fix. Where Russia survives, they copy and improve.

Russia is the test object. China is in the lab taking notes. And this matters for the whole world because sanctions used to be a nuclear weapon. Now China is trying to make them weaker. If China succeeds, the global system changes and the dollar loses some power.

Countries start operating outside Western control. That includes parts of Africa too, where trade can slowly shift away from dollar dependence.

This is not just about Russia. It’s about the future of economic power and China is preparing early while everyone else is still reacting.