Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

[SSridhar]

^ The fake combat capabilities refers to the corruption in PLARF which led to discovery of the older-model DF-5 ICBM silos being fake.

[A_Gupta]

Missing ICBM silos???

[drnayar]

^ The fake combat capabilities refers to the corruption in PLARF which led to discovery of the older-model DF-5 ICBM silos being fake.

in addition to water fuelled ballistic missiles

the military is always a highway for corruption with lots of opportunities in corruption , procurements, contracts etc etc.. same everywhere

[bala]

Not just military, but the entire system is quite corrupt. Some years back the Guy in charge of China HSR stole billions and ran to Kanada for good. Most CCP & PLA blokes have a second family parked in places like the US, Kanada, Europe and funnel their loot to them. Most of the chinese are in some low end jobs/or self appointed jobs but they drive expensive cars, live in expensive neighborhoods, dress all designer stuff and they sport the latest and greatest in gadgets. If the US wants to sqeeze China, all it has to do is sqeeze the second family of CCP/PLA and things will automatically fall in line.

[A_Gupta]

China unlikely to aid Maduro if US acts in Venezuela, but could gain from fallout: experts
Beijing condemns US pressure on Caracas but offers limited support, prioritising its economic interests and long-term gains
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/article ... e=homepage

Beijing is unlikely to offer military help to Venezuela if the United States moves against President Nicolas Maduro, analysts say, but it could still benefit from a shift in Washington’s global posture that revives old notions of spheres of influence, including one that might one day favour its ambitions towards Taiwan.

....
....
Beijing’s caution follows a familiar pattern, as it rarely defends partners under military pressure, instead focusing on safeguarding economic interests and political access, experts heard by the Post said.

...
For China, which prizes stability in oil-producing nations, the prospect of another US intervention in its main Latin American partner is a source of both frustration and calculation.

“They will condemn US bullying, but they will not lift a finger to help Maduro,” Ellis said. “For China, it is about positioning for the aftermath, not defending the present.”

[A_Gupta]

https://youtu.be/UuNKX6740x8?si=oTBj2FX1RHg3oGLw
The claim is that the Chinese one trillion dollar trade surplus is largely from China making subprime loans to importers in developing countries.

[SSridhar]

One hopes that the US and the Japanese are keeping a very close watch on the Indo-China Sea PLAN exercises around Taiwan, beset as they are with their own problems. The US has huge internal issues, external issues like tariff wars, Ukraine, Venezuela etc whereas China is not frittering away resources anywhere else and spreading itself thin.

[ramana]

NSA Doval is visiting China for SR talks.

[A_Gupta]

Michael Pettis:
https://x.com/michaelxpettis/status/2011773080235098185
1/4
Aggregate financing in China, the most widely-used proxy for total debt, ended 2025 at RMB 442.12 trillion, an 8.3% increase over last year's outstanding amount. This is a relatively small increase in total debt compared to earlier years.

2/4
But of course, nominal GDP growth is also much lower. So the 35.6 6 trillion R&B increase in aggregate financing in 2025 represents a 12 percentage point increase in China's debt to GDP ratio. This is higher than the 11 percentage point increase in 2024 and 2023.

3/4
China's debt data isn't always comparable over time, but I think only the COVID year of 2020 saw a higher increase in China's debt-to-GDP ratio, and because this was partially reversed in 2021, the average annual increase over the two years was only ten percentage points.

4/4
What does this tell us? It tells us that it is taking more and more debt to achieve China's GDP growth targets. If the 2026 GDP growth target in 2026 is 5%, as many believe, it will probably require a 12-14 percentage point increase in China's debt burden to manage it.

---
Total debt end of 2025: RMB 442.12 trillion
China's nominal GDP for 2025 is projected to be around 140 trillion RMB
Debt-to-GDP-ration = 316%.

G2 countries subsist on a mountain of debt.

[A_Gupta]

The Taipei Times on the latest military purge in Communist China:
China purge could disrupt chain of command: source
https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan ... 2003851179

China’s latest military purge underscores systemic risks in its shift from collective leadership to sole rule under Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平), and could disrupt its chain of command and military capabilities, a national security official said yesterday.

If decisionmaking within the Chinese Communist Party has become “irrational” under one-man rule, the Taiwan Strait and the regional situation must be approached with extreme caution, given unforeseen risks, they added.

The anonymous official made the remarks as China’s Central Military Commission Vice Chairman Zhang Youxia (張又俠) and Joint Staff Department Chief of Staff Liu Zhenli (劉振立) were reportedly being investigated for suspected “serious violations of discipline and law.”
...
...
The purging of Zhang and Li is believed to be part of efforts to reform the military and ensure its loyalty to Xi.

It is part of a broader “anti-corruption” drive that has punished more than 200,000 officials since Xi came to power in 2012.

Zhang is the most senior vice chairman in the commission, has long been regarded as one of Xi’s most reliable allies and was a key figure in stabilizing the political situation in China.

His absence from several high-level meetings since Jan. 1 caused suspicions about his fall.

....

[VinodTK]

Indian Troops Entered Bhutan &...': Former DGMO Details How India STOPPED China In Doklam

Former DG Military Operations Lt Gen A.K. Bhatt has revealed new details about the 2017 Doklam crisis, highlighting India’s bold response to Chinese attempts to change the status quo at the tri-junction. As Chinese troops advanced with bulldozers to build a road, Indian soldiers formed a human barrier, while Border Roads Organisation dozers directly confronted Chinese machines, halting construction. Bhatt emphasized the security stakes, noting that if China had completed the road, it could have given the Chinese access to the Jampheri Ridge that oversees the Siliguri Corridor. The move, executed with political clarity, involved Indian troops crossing into Bhutanese territory to physically block China, triggering a tense 72-day standoff. Former DGMO outlines this unconventional strategy and underscored India’s commitment to protecting its strategic interests and maintaining the established norms along the Doklam plateau.

[drnayar]

US accuses China of secret nuclear testing as it calls for broad new arms treaty after New START

"I can reveal that the U.S. government is aware that China has conducted nuclear explosive tests, including preparing for tests with designated yields in the hundreds of tons," U.S. Under Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security ‌Thomas DiNanno told a Disarmament ‌Conference in Geneva.

The Chinese military "sought to conceal testing by obfuscating the nuclear explosions because it recognized these tests violate test ban commitments. China has used 'decoupling', a method to decrease the effectiveness of seismic monitoring, to hide their activities from the world," he said.

DiNanno said China ‌had conducted one such "yield-producing test" on June 22, 2020.
. [ right after Galwan !]
Decoupled Testing
National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2012. The Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty: Technical Issues for the United States. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. https://doi.org/10.17226/5023.

https://m.economictimes.com/news/defenc ... 992041.cms

[VinodTK]

^^^^ Did China conduct nuclear test days after Galwan clash? Here’s what US official revealed

[A_Gupta]

The Taipei Times reports:
https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/ ... 2003852123

US House bill warns China off Taiwan

RESTRAINTS: Should China’s actions pose any threat to Taiwan’s security, economic or social systems, China would be excluded from major financial institutions, the bill says

By Sam Garcia / Staff writer, with CNA

The US House of Representatives on Monday passed the PROTECT Taiwan Act, which states that Washington would exclude China from participating in major global financial organizations if its actions directly threaten Taiwan’s security.

The bill, proposed by Republican Representative Frank Lucas, passed with 395 votes in favor and two against.

It stipulates that if China’s actions pose any threat to Taiwan’s security, economic or social systems, the US would, “to the maximum extent practicable,” exclude Beijing from international financial institutions, including the G20, the Bank for International Settlements and the Financial Stability Board.

[A_Gupta]

The Xi family allegedly was profiting enormously from Venezuelan oil. This might be one reason Trump took Venezuela.

This video exposes the hidden wealth empire of Xi Jinping’s family, shattering the official narrative of clean leadership. Despite claims since 2012 that relatives exited business, evidence shows no real severance—instead, assets moved into shadowy proxies and shell companies.

Xi’s sister Qi Qiaoqiao quietly dominates lucrative sectors: Venezuelan oil deals netting billions annually via special quotas, rare earth monopolies in Jiangxi, concrete supply in Shenzhen-Guangzhou, and deep ties to China Ping An Insurance. Estimated family-controlled assets exceed 20 trillion RMB (~$3 trillion USD).

The script details money-laundering via white glove Chen Zhi, whose 127,271 Bitcoin ($15 billion) and London properties were seized by US-UK authorities in 2026. His repatriation to China is portrayed as silencing to protect the family.

Ultimately, the decade of “anti-corruption” is framed as a brutal wealth centralization, turning national resources into one family’s private fortune—while ordinary people pay the price.

[Deans]

I read the manuscript of the unpublished book,
My take on the Gen Naravane book controversy in my latest blogpost.

https://rpdeans.blogspot.com/2026/02/ch ... -book.html