Vayusena & Nausena Rafale: News & Discussion

[Rakesh]

https://x.com/AjayshreeSamby3/status/20 ... 79809?s=20 ---> India adds Non-negotiables to #Rafale deal which includes integration of Indian weapons, missiles and ammunition on all 114 jets; the plane maker will provide secure data links to allow digital integration of the jets with Indian radars and sensors sending imagery to ground-based controllers. IC content will be 60%.

Full reversal from the earlier ANI article.

* 30% IC has miracously jumped to 60% IC
* Source code approval via divine intervention
* Engine Collaboration (Safran opening the crown jewels)
* And other pixie fairy dust....

I think I know what has happened. The above is likely what was agreed to between the two nations. The ANI article was put out, minus the above, but with the cost provided. Once the outrage occurred on social media (you should have seen the meltdown on X!!), then the above comes out. Now the argument will be all the rona-dhona on social media has been addressed and thus $30 billion is a fair price.

If my theory is correct, then this is a deviously well played move by the GOI. The ANI article was put out as a feeler to gauge public reaction. And who better to do it than Ajit Dubey-ji of ANI. The man has street cred when it comes to defense reporting, at least in the eyes of the GOI. And likely the $30 billion will be higher and will spell the end of the Tejas Mk2. I believe Air HQ sealed the fate of the Mk2, with the follow on order of 97 Mk1A and now with the 114 MRFA.

The Mk2 will likely transition to the AMCA or the ORCA, but without the GE F414-INS6. I can only hope for the latter as a starting point or precursor to the AMCA. Something along the lines of the KF-21 Borame from South Korea.

...

Cain-ji, your long-held wish/dream of a twin engine MCA must just turn out to be true. Let's see.

[Aditya_V]

Or are we negotiating hard with GE and US at the same time?

[Rakesh]

GE will not happen Saar, due to the Orange Diaper Baby's temper tantrums on India via trade, Op Sindoor, etc.

Any hope for an American fighter (or any US military hardware, in significant quantities) went out the window, due to the alarming behaviour of the Trump Administration (Bennett the Dolt, Lutnick the Lunatic, etc) and Donald "Duck" Trump himself i.e. I-negotiated-peace-and-called-for-ceasefire-between-India-and-Pakistan.

GE engine shenanigans have not helped either. When the F404s were not being delivered on time, GE's complaint was that they required time to spool up production...as HAL ordered F404-IN20 turbofan, after the line had shutdown. Now that the line has commenced and deliveries occurring, the delay is still on-going ---> viewtopic.php?p=2669058#p2669058

[Rakesh]

No negotiation on transfer of source code for IAF jets
https://www.newindianexpress.com/nation ... r-iaf-jets
15 Jan 2026

Sources emphasised that the new jets will be able to integrate indigenous weapons as required and maintain seamless communication with aircraft of foreign origin, ensuring full interoperability.

[bala]

https://x.com/i/status/2012082052137681405

Will France allow independent Indian weapon integration via open APIs... without Dassault’s involvement every time?
Will they permit integration of BNET and future indigenous data links?

APIs are the way to go. Dassault should agree on this otherwise nothing (India munitions, sensors, etc.) can be integrated on Rafale. BTW most software systems publish APIs for integration in enterprise context. The enterpise is the IAF for aircrafts for India.

[A_Gupta]

Hindi - a vigorous defense of the Rafale deal.
https://youtu.be/DeimzRaOuhA?si=Omc2WUrWzwTSm4xh
[youtube]DeimzRaOuhA[/quote]

A as key point is that IAF needs its squadron strength up, with weapons, including nukes, integrated, whether with Dassault help or via full source code. India also needs the ability to crank out large numbers of these aircraft.

(Simple example - if you really want to take out a S-400 for example, when it can engage 25 targets simultaneously, you need to present it with much more than 25 potential targets, not the measly four that Pakistan used.)

[VinodTK]

Defence Procurement Board 'clears ‘proposal for 114 Rafale jets

NEW DELHI: In a big boost for the Indian Air Force, the Defence Procurement Board, headed by defence secretary Rajesh Kumar Singh, has reportedly cleared a proposal to acquire 114 Rafale fighter jets from French manufacturer Dassault Aviation.
The “clearance” by the Defence Procurement Board, as per some agency reports, marks the first formal step towards finalising the mega deal for the IAF, which is expected to be India’s largest-ever defence acquisition. The media reports said the deal could be valued around Rs 3.25 lakh crore. The proposal will now be placed before the Defence Acquisition Council (DAC), chaired by defence minister Rajnath Singh. The final approval will be required from the Cabinet Committee on Security, headed by PM Narendra Modi.
The Defence Procurement Board’s approval came just ahead of French President Emmaunel Macron's visit to India next month. If all other approvals and price negotiations happen on time, there is a possibility that India and France may sign the deal for 114 jets during President Macron’s visit next month.
The procurement will proceed under an inter-governmental agreement, ensuring direct deliveries without any intermediaries. Last year, the IAF had moved a formal proposal to the defence ministry, seeking 114 more Rafales.

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[Cain Marko]

https://x.com/AjayshreeSamby3/status/20 ... 79809?s=20 ---> India adds Non-negotiables to #Rafale deal which includes integration of Indian weapons, missiles and ammunition on all 114 jets; the plane maker will provide secure data links to allow digital integration of the jets with Indian radars and sensors sending imagery to ground-based controllers. IC content will be 60%.Full reversal from the earlier ANI article

Wow. That's well played indeed.

...

Cain-ji, your long-held wish/dream of a twin engine MCA must just turn out to be true. Let's see.

Yeah I guess. I always thought getting 36 odd vanilla f35 would've been a better way to appease the big guy instead of allowing him access to the crown jewels (Tejas).

The French have never been above board when it comes to engines despite the hefty price (nobody really has), the US just took it to the next level. But I think desh missed a great opportunity in leveraging the al31 infrastructure it has so painstakingly built over decades. The Tejas should've been based on a desi version of the Saturn esp. post 2007 when it was marked as low on thrust and when Putin came with a begging bowl offering sweeteners on the al31.

Ideally of course I'd loved to have seen a shift to a twin engined bird based on the relatively skinny ksveri that gtre had already proofed. That would've been the right course of action. Even if the kaveri had taken longer, the m88 and rd33 could've served as a backup.

Either of these options would've served so many needs ...mig21 replacement, mrca, navy fighter.

Anyways Admiral saar, it's all water under the bridge...woulda coulda. Ruing the past don't fix nothing otherwise I'd be getting some mithai right now

[Cain Marko]

Or are we negotiating hard with GE and US at the same time?

Better to negotiate for 36-54 f35 than mortgage your entire future and mainstay.

[Cain Marko]

Defence Procurement Board 'clears ‘proposal for 114 Rafale jets

NEW DELHI: In a big boost for the Indian Air Force, the Defence Procurement Board, headed by defence secretary Rajesh Kumar Singh, has reportedly cleared a proposal to acquire 114 Rafale fighter jets from French manufacturer Dassault Aviation.
The “clearance” by the Defence Procurement Board, as per some agency reports, marks the first formal step towards finalising the mega deal for the IAF, which is expected to be India’s largest-ever defence acquisition. The media reports said the deal could be valued around Rs 3.25 lakh crore. The proposal will now be placed before the Defence Acquisition Council (DAC), chaired by defence minister Rajnath Singh. The final approval will be required from the Cabinet Committee on Security, headed by PM Narendra Modi.
The Defence Procurement Board’s approval came just ahead of French President Emmaunel Macron's visit to India next month. If all other approvals and price negotiations happen on time, there is a possibility that India and France may sign the deal for 114 jets during President Macron’s visit next month.
The procurement will proceed under an inter-governmental agreement, ensuring direct deliveries without any intermediaries. Last year, the IAF had moved a formal proposal to the defence ministry, seeking 114 more Rafales.
::

I shudder to think what the MLU on this fleet will cost. But I guess it's the price to pay for strategic independence and a reflection of the geopolitical reality of the world rearming itself to the teeth, esp.. The neighborhood.

[VinodTK]

The India Tapes

India reportedly plans to seal a 114-jet Rafale deal by 2026, valued at over ₹3 lakh crore, combining a major boost in combat capability with a strong push for indigenous manufacturing. Under the plan, 18 aircraft will be delivered from France initially, while 96 jets will be assembled in India at a proposed final assembly line in Nagpur.

The India-built Rafales are expected to feature up to 60% indigenous content, phased in over time, marking a significant step toward self-reliance in defence production under Atmanirbhar Bharat. The jets will be delivered in the advanced F4 standard, which includes enhanced network connectivity, satellite communication links, and upgraded avionics, with provisions for future upgrades to next-generation variants.

The deal is expected to be signed in 2026, with the first fly-away jets from France likely to arrive around 2030. Indian assembly will ramp up in the years following, aiming for full production in the early 2030s.

Multiple Indian private defence firms, including TATA, Mahindra, and Dynamatic Technologies, will participate in the programme. The Nagpur assembly line is expected to have a production capacity of around 24 aircraft per year and could serve both domestic and international demand.

This acquisition will strengthen the Indian Air Force’s squadron strength while deepening strategic and industrial cooperation with France, positioning India as one of the largest Rafale operators outside Europe.

[csaurabh]

Indigenous content of 60% is a pipe dream.

Those promoting these ideas simply have no idea how aircraft supply chains work.
At best, the realistically achievable number is 20%, which denotes the final assembly being done in India.

We are barely pushing 60% indigenous on Tejas, which is a home-grown aircraft program.
Rafale is a French aircraft with major parts being built by top European aircraft manufacturers and components coming from hundreds of SMEs.
Who is foolish enough to believe that this whole ecosystem can simply be transplanted wholesale or that any company or country would be willing to do so ?

[uddu]

Engine should be indigenous for the indigenous content percentage to increase beyond the current level.

Indigenous content of 60% is a pipe dream.

Those promoting these ideas simply have no idea how aircraft supply chains work.
At best, the realistically achievable number is 20%, which denotes the final assembly being done in India.

We are barely pushing 60% indigenous on Tejas, which is a home-grown aircraft program.
Rafale is a French aircraft with major parts being built by top European aircraft manufacturers and components coming from hundreds of SMEs.
Who is foolish enough to believe that this whole ecosystem can simply be transplanted wholesale or that any company or country would be willing to do so ?

HAL Pushes for 70% Indigenous Content in Latest Tejas Mk1A Order
https://defence.in/threads/hal-pushes-f ... rder.5562/
16 April 2024

In the latest contract for 97 Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) Tejas Mk1A fighters, HAL has set its sights on exceeding the baseline 65% indigenization level. The company aims to push this figure above 70%, a noteworthy leap from the 55% domestic content achieved in a previous Tejas Mk1A order. The original Tejas Mk1 model already features an impressive 59.7% indigenous content by value and 75.5% by line replaceable units (LRUs).

[Rakesh]

Rafale - Is The IAF Getting 114 Rafales?

Key Highlights from the Episode:

The potential mega-deal for 114 MRFA aircraft is estimated to be worth approximately Rs 3.2 lakh crore.
India is looking to leapfrog technology by securing the latest Rafale F4 and upcoming F5 variants for superior combat edge.
The IAF has increasingly identified the Rafale as its multirole bedrock to maintain regional air superiority.
This follows a massive naval milestone—a government-to-government deal for 26 Rafale-M fighters for the Indian Navy worth over $7.5 billion.
With the Rafale taking center stage, questions arise on where this leaves the Tejas Mk2, which is still awaiting its first rollout.
The shift toward the Rafale highlights the urgent need for the IAF to bridge the squadron strength gap with proven platforms.

[Sumeet]

Or are we negotiating hard with GE and US at the same time?

Better to negotiate for 36-54 f35 than mortgage your entire future and mainstay.

With existing S-400s and new orders yet to arrive (and in future going for S-500) F-35 is a no go from DC. This is besides the fact that we will be at mercy of unkil.

[drnayar]

India lays down non-negotiables for 114 Rafale fighter jet deal. What are the strict conditions?
https://www.theweek.in/news/defence/202 ... tions.html
16 Jan 2026

These non-negotiables include the level of transfer of technology (ToT), and integration of Indian weapon systems, among others, according to a report in The Tribune, quoting sources. The report further said India also asked the jet maker to provide secure data links to allow integration of Indian radars and sensors onto the aircraft.

[Rakesh]

IAF's 114 Rafale is no stop-gap: 25 years of detours, deadlocks & political hesitation

In the late 1990s, in the aftermath of the Kargil conflict, the Indian Air Force (IAF) drew a blunt lesson: it urgently needed a modern, precision-capable fighter aircraft. In 2025, IAF is still hoping. ThePrint's Editor - Defence and Diplomacy Snehesh Alex Philip explains in #DefenceScope.

[bala]

For 25 years the IAF could have worked with HAL to get ORCA/TEDBF type plane. Instead they opposed the Tejas tooth and nail for a very long time. Manohar Parrikar changed their attitude with Tejas and there is induction of these into IAF. Another area that India should have concentrated is getting some engine going for their aircrafts. The engine saga is another poor area of planning with MOD babus opposing any testbeds for testing. These are the collective flaws in Raksha mantri. Having shiny rafales is a temporary fix, since the landscape has changed with stealth. Need to put all efforts in getting AMCA going.

[Cain Marko]

Better to negotiate for 36-54 f35 than mortgage your entire future and mainstay.

With existing S-400s and new orders yet to arrive (and in future going for S-500) F-35 is a no go from DC. This is besides the fact that we will be at mercy of unkil.

Agreed. What I meant is that this couldve been Indias play instead of sticking to GE engines. Even if it the f35 didn't make it (which we all know it wouldn't for reasons you mentioned), it would have kept the US engaged while the lca program continued. Occasional p8a, mq9 type purchases would naturally help. Instead, the decision makers chose to basically hand over the program's nether regions to the US. A baffling decision bordering on jaichandgiri.

[Cain Marko]

For 25 years the IAF could have worked with HAL to get ORCA/TEDBF type plane. Instead they opposed the Tejas tooth and nail for a very long time. Manohar Parrikar changed their attitude with Tejas and there is induction of these into IAF. Another area that India should have concentrated is getting some engine going for their aircrafts. The engine saga is another poor area of planning with MOD babus opposing any testbeds for testing. These are the collective flaws in Raksha mantri. Having shiny rafales is a temporary fix, since the landscape has changed with stealth. Need to put all efforts in getting AMCA going.

It's not just the iaf though. It's all of them... The babus, politicians, services and the drdo chaps. Of course they keep pointing fingers at each other (just smoke and mirrors), but everyone of these stakeholders have played a role in screwing indigenous development.

[Jay]

It's not just the iaf though. It's all of them... The babus, politicians, services and the drdo chaps.

We are all in this craft and must sink or swim together. Unless this is realized by all the parties nothing will change.

IAF is happy that it finally got it's bird...
Babu's are happy that they made IAF wait 3 decades to get its bird and got the pricing "right"
Mantri is happy as he's getting the publicity by greenlighting the deal
DRDO chaps are happy as they get to keep their jobs and no one will point a finger at them
Janata is happy because....well, they have the "mango man" syndrome

None among us are wiser, for we have yet to invest in our own self-belief. Instead, we have taken on the debt of dependency—a debt that will one day be repaid, whether in our own lifetimes or in those of our children.

[Cain Marko]

It's not just the iaf though. It's all of them... The babus, politicians, services and the drdo chaps.

We are all in this craft and must sink or swim together. Unless this is realized by all the parties nothing will change.

IAF is happy that it finally got it's bird...
Babu's are happy that they made IAF wait 3 decades to get its bird and got the pricing "right"
Mantri is happy as he's getting the publicity by greenlighting the deal
DRDO chaps are happy as they get to keep their jobs and no one will point a finger at them
Janata is happy because....well, they have the "mango man" syndrome

None among us are wiser, for we have yet to invest in our own self-belief. Instead, we have taken on the debt of dependency—a debt that will one day be repaid, whether in our own lifetimes or in those of our children.

I blame mango man the least in this situation. He's mainly caught up in etching out a livelihood. The dearest thing for him after family is his sanskriti, which the leaders use and abuse to manipulate his affection. He is neither informed nor aware caught up as he is in rozi roti.

[Manish_P]

...
IAF is happy that it finally got it's bird...
Babu's are happy that they made IAF wait 3 decades to get its bird and got the pricing "right"
Mantri is happy as he's getting the publicity by greenlighting the deal
DRDO chaps are happy as they get to keep their jobs and no one will point a finger at them
Janata is happy because....well, they have the "mango man" syndrome
...

China is happy too

[Jay]

China is happy too

This is what is so mind-boggling about the situation. We are more than a decade past 2014, yet we still refuse to lift our heads from the sand we buried ourselves in. If past actions can be termed 'deliberate criminal dereliction', there ought to be a word for what has happened since then and brought us to this point. While we are out in public, thumping our chests with “non-negotiable” points and such language, all the sellers have come to the conclusion that the emperor is nude, and he has to pay the asking price if he wants to wear the armor. Extremely shameful and short-sighted.

[Kartik]

All these rush of information with suggested timeline of signing the deal for the suggested 114 Rafale seems to perfectly line up with the upcoming first flight of the Tejas MkII !!!. The DRDO chief had said in the interview that the MkII will fly out this year. All the hurry to swamp the headlines with information on the rafale deal seems like a very strategic play to make the MkII irrelevant in the publics eyes as well as set the field to sign up the deal in the shortest possible time, before the MkII come into the picture and make people question the relevance of the rafale deal.
I am sure it will be years before any deal is signed but trying to make it sound like it is imminent will cast doubt in the minds of the people that the Tejas MkII is no longer relevant as we can easily make do with the Rafale. For a change I am hoping for our babus to make sure that they make the relevant files go through the whole tendering process.

Tejas Mk2 hasn't even seen a prototype rollout yet and you're acting like it's on the verge of entering production. There's a full phase of ground testing, flight testing, weapons testing, climate testing, etc. for it to go through with thousands of test points and well over 1500-1600 test flights at the very minimum to get it ready for induction.

This announcement has nothing to do with the Tejas Mk2. It will be ordered when it's time comes. Right now the focus has to be on Rafale otherwise the IAF will be reduced to even lower than 29 squadrons when the oldest Jags start retiring.

[Kartik]

...
IAF is happy that it finally got it's bird...
Babu's are happy that they made IAF wait 3 decades to get its bird and got the pricing "right"
Mantri is happy as he's getting the publicity by greenlighting the deal
DRDO chaps are happy as they get to keep their jobs and no one will point a finger at them
Janata is happy because....well, they have the "mango man" syndrome
...

China is happy too

The Chinese are not stupid to underestimate the Rafale. In fact they have been blocking Taiwan's purchase of Rafale as Eric Trappier recently alluded to. It's only Indians who have a fetish for blaming the IAF for wanting a jet whose capabilities they fully know and appreciate.

[uddu]

Tejas Mk2 hasn't even seen a prototype rollout yet and you're acting like it's on the verge of entering production. There's a full phase of ground testing, flight testing, weapons testing, climate testing, etc. for it to go through with thousands of test points and well over 1500-1600 test flights at the very minimum to get it ready for induction.

This announcement has nothing to do with the Tejas Mk2. It will be ordered when it's time comes. Right now the focus has to be on Rafale otherwise the IAF will be reduced to even lower than 29 squadrons when the oldest Jags start retiring.

Deliveries of Rafale will happen from 2030 onward only while MK2 will enter by 2029.

[Manish_P]

The Chinese are not stupid to underestimate the Rafale. In fact they have been blocking Taiwan's purchase of Rafale as Eric Trappier recently alluded to. It's only Indians who have a fetish for blaming the IAF for wanting a jet whose capabilities they fully know and appreciate.

Exactly. They are not stupid. They know the capabilities of the Rafales. They also know the capabilities of many US and most Russian birds.

They have known it for decades. Just like us.

Hence their single minded obsession and focus on building their own aircraft - from the ground up. After buying what they could. And stealing what they could not.

[stephen]

Tejas Mk2 hasn't even seen a prototype rollout yet and you're acting like it's on the verge of entering production. There's a full phase of ground testing, flight testing, weapons testing, climate testing, etc. for it to go through with thousands of test points and well over 1500-1600 test flights at the very minimum to get it ready for induction.

This announcement has nothing to do with the Tejas Mk2. It will be ordered when it's time comes. Right now the focus has to be on Rafale otherwise the IAF will be reduced to even lower than 29 squadrons when the oldest Jags start retiring.

Its the speed of information thats being disseminated in such a short period of time and suggested aggressive timeline for signing of the papers thats making this seem like people are really in a hurry to get this deal done before the calender year ends. Now I would love this kind of speed for all our other defense purchases, especially indigenous products but strangely we dont seem to have this tearing need for most of them.

I am all for more Rafales, but perhaps another 72 might have sufficed without this purchase affecting the Capex. Hope this purchase of 114 wont lead to the slowing of the already delayed MkII or the IAF losing complete interest in it and kicking the can for induction of the the AMCA further 10 years down the road. But as we like to say, the IAF knows whats best for them, we are but armchair fighters at the best of times.

[Aditya_V]

I hope Indian and UAE Rafale engines can be built with Indian ecosystem to used as replacement engines in Tejas, MK2 and AMCA, TEDBF.

With 62 orders plus another 114 and UAE orders I hope this is part of the deal.

[Rakesh]

Deliveries of Rafale will happen from 2030 onward only while MK2 will enter by 2029.

Let us address this issue. I have been seeing a similar timeline on Twitter as well. Indian def twitter has gone totally nuts over the announcement of the 114 contract. Emotions are running high on Twitter and these folks are putting up arguments that have zero basis in reality.

The industry standard is three years from date of contract signature. So if a contract is signed in 2027, delivery of the first batch will be in 2030. This is how it works the world over. Even Lockheed Martin - during the SE fighter contest and in the MMRCA 1.0 contest - stated that it would take three years to deliver the first batch. This is exactly what happened even in the first Rafale deal. Signed in New Delhi in Sept 2016 and delivery of the aircraft occurred on 08 Oct 2019 (at Merignac, France) on the occasion of IAF Day. The first batch of five aircraft - at Ambala AFS in July 2020 - arrived in India, again as per contract signature.

Even HAL had the same time frame for the first tranche of the Tejas Mk1A. Contract signed in Feb 2021 (@Aero India) and delivery of the first batch (two aircraft) was expected to arrive in Feb 2024. Not a single one has been delivered as of Jan 2026. Engine delays from GE, along with extended weapons validation tests have delayed the induction. Next month will make it five years from contract signature. No one wants to hear this, because the truth makes us uncomfortable ---> Rafale deliveries to India happened on time and as per contract signature. You just made a post in the Tejas Mk1A thread, in which it states that five Tejas Mk1A will be ready by March end. If the first Rafale will come only by 2030, how many Mk1A will come by 2030? You want to venture a guess how many J-series (both VLO and non VLO) the PLAAF is inducting each year? Ask Google Chacha.

Tejas Mk2 will not enter squadron service in 2029. GE and HAL have yet to formalize (i.e. contract signature) the license assembly of the GE F414 turbofan in India. Until this happens, not a single production variant of the Tejas Mk2 will enter IAF service. It is a nice soundbyte (i.e. Rafale 2030, Tejas Mk2 2029) but that is not the reality and will not pan out that way. The aircraft has not even flown yet and the DRDO Chief recently stated that a prototype will take to the skies in June 2026. That is an ambitious plan and I hope they meet it. But if past performance is any indication, then I will not hold my breath.

There are a sizeable number of flight tests that have to be conducted. Systems and sub-systems have to be proven and validated. Once all of this is completed, then and only then can negotiations begin between HAL and Air HQ on a specified number of airframes. 100, 200 or whatever that magic number will be. Expect squadron service only in the early 2030s and that is an optimistic timeline. And then there is the contract for the assembly of the F414-INS6 turbofan, negotiations for which have been ongoing since 2022. If a contract is not signed, there will be no Tejas Mk2 in active service.

Of the 99 F404-IN20 turbofans signed in Aug 2021, for the Tejas Mk1A, we have received a grand total of F-I-V-E. And if the MRFA deal goes to Dassault, expect the Orange Diaper Baby to throw a massive tantrum. At that stage, it is anyone's guess what he can and will actually do. Worst case scenario --> Trump could cancel any further US military sales to India. This could result in outright stoppage of the F404-IN20 turbofan and cancellation of the F414-INS6 contract. The entire Tejas program could come to a screeching halt at that stage. Let us hope that never happens. Stocking up on F404s and F414s is only plausible, if we get them in sizeable numbers. The reality is that India is not and will not be for at least the remainder of Trump's term (another three years) which will end on 20 Jan 2029. A change in administration in the US, however is no guarantee of quicker deliveries.

The Rafale - or another MRFA - is coming. It is going to be exorbitantly expensive. The squadron shortage will only begin to be addressed - in any significant measure - in the next decade. The remainder of this decade is going to continue to be painful in terms of squadron strength. This is the price India has to pay for not funding her own turbofan program.

I-want-be-a-regional-or-global-superpower-but-will-spend-even-less-than-the-bare-minimum is now coming to bite us back in the ass.

[uddu]

...

No one is against Rafale. Though the number stated are crazy in nature. Now if that comes with all the MKIzation that we need, its good, that we can have our own Radar weapons as time goesby. Else absolutely no point in wasting money on it. But the thing hoping that French will deliver on time is again an assumption. What if Trump goes to war with EU. What will happen to their own Rafale and how many French will be able to deliver if their own factory gets bombed? Even if their own engine plants or associated plants are functioning and fine, but the number of Rafael's goes down defending Europe, how many will be supplied to India on time? The assumptions that we make of Tejas is also applicable for the Rafale as well. What if tomorrow there is a political change in France and it's a French version of Trump getting elected. So there is no shortcut to indigenous way. That must always be the priority.

[Rakesh]

No one is against Rafale. Though the number stated are crazy in nature. Now if that comes with all the MKIzation that we need, its good, that we can have our own Radar weapons as time goesby. Else absolutely no point in wasting money on it. But the thing hoping that French will deliver on time is again an assumption. What if Trump goes to war with EU. What will happen to their own Rafale and how many French will be able to deliver if their own factory gets bombed? The assumptions that we make of Tejas is also applicable for the Rafale as well. What if tomorrow there is a political change in France and it's a French version of Trump getting elected. So there is no shortcut to indigenous way. That must always be the priority.

Before addressing the "MKIzation" of the Rafale, let us first clear the misconceptions of Trump going to war with the EU.

Such an event will likely be over Greenland. Unless you have another scenario which I am not aware of. But on Greenland, all this bravado that EU is putting up is a facade. There is no viable path for the EU to prevail against the world's most preeminent military power. Before we even get to an armed conflict between the US and the EU - over Greenland - the latter will fold. And the US does not need to bomb factories in France or other places in the EU, to acquire Greenland. Even the janitor who cleans the toilets in Macron's presidential office will tell you that. Trump throws tantrums alright, but he certainly knows how to get his way without a military conflict.

Compare the political landscape of France for the past 70+ years (since the IAF acquired the first Dassault-origin aircraft i.e. Ouragan in 1953, known as Toofani in IAF service) and find out how many times has France "reminded" India of sanctions or even imposed them. Now compare that to the US and her geopolitical unreliability. And the US political landscape inherently makes her unreliable. What one US administration signs, the next US administration is under no obligation to follow through on. It is one of the perks of being a superpower and having the world's largest MIC. Agreements that the US signs with other nations are held in place as long as it serves the interests of the current US administration. Or to use a street analogy ---> agreements that the US signs are not even worth a bucket of fresh & warm piss. Pressler Amendment ring a bell? Paris Climate Accord?

France's MIC rests on the foundation on being relevant by staying reliable. If France cannot sell its military wares, they cannot afford an independent MIC. French maal is ridiculously expensive, but they make it viable (i.e. financially solvent) by selling their hardware world wide. Sanctioning nations that have purchased their military hardware will sink their MIC. France cannot and will not afford to antagonize its customers to a point, where they will be deemed unreliable. The US has no such compulsion, as their home customer recoups much of their investment. All of France's investment in the Rafale program, they have recouped with the international Rafale sales that Dassault has made. A French version of Donald Trump will be even more eager to sell its military wares to the world, as it makes ample financial sense to do so. There is a reason why the French are called Frogs

US military sales to allied nations serve as an extension arm of its foreign policy. "Interoperability" (with Unkil) is a term coined and perfected by the United States of America. It makes ample sense for the US to have allies operate its hardware, so that in a conflict they can lean on these nations for serviceability and mission readiness. LEMOA (Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement) is another example. Other nations do not necessarily follow that playbook, but it is now changing. And as the F-35 program has proved, not a single foreign F-35 can take to the sky without sustainment from Unkil's MIC. This is the *INTENDED* meaning of interoperability...albeit American style.

On to the "MKIzation" of the Rafale. I will take it one step further. The French will say no to India's demands and India will gleefully oblige & still sign on the dotted line. While not going to really pan out that way, but if push comes to shove....what options does India exactly have? We are bleeding squadrons, we do not have our own engine and Op Sindoor has proved a beyond a doubt that Air HQ is absolutely enamoured with the Rafale. They want more Rafale and is putting everything on hold to get it i.e. Super Sukhoi upgrade file that is collecting dust with the Cabinet Committee on Security.

This is why I said earlier ---> This is the price India has to pay for not funding her own turbofan program. If we had our own turbofan, none of this quagmire would exist. But here is where we are. So pay the price. IMVHO, radar upgrades and integration of Indian weaponry (& other hardware) will happen. But it will not be right away and will happen likely during MLU upgrades. You cannot tell the Chinese to *HOLD ON*, while we address the squadron shortage. And once the strength is up to mark, then we can go to war. Nobody operates that way.

Hopefully this purchase will serve as a lesson for India's policy makers. Strength *ONLY* respects Strength. See Trump's behaviour towards China. And as the Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney commented at Davos, "If you are not at the table, you are on the menu." And one of the pillars of becoming strong is having your own MIC. India's low bypass turbofan has to become a reality, otherwise India will forever import.

Another uncomfortable truth ---> The IAF operates US fighter aircraft. It is called Tejas. No F404/F414, no Tejas.

[Rakesh]

Its the speed of information thats being disseminated in such a short period of time and suggested aggressive timeline for signing of the papers thats making this seem like people are really in a hurry to get this deal done before the calender year ends. Now I would love this kind of speed for all our other defense purchases, especially indigenous products but strangely we dont seem to have this tearing need for most of them.

I am all for more Rafales, but perhaps another 72 might have sufficed without this purchase affecting the Capex. Hope this purchase of 114 wont lead to the slowing of the already delayed MkII or the IAF losing complete interest in it and kicking the can for induction of the the AMCA further 10 years down the road. But as we like to say, the IAF knows whats best for them, we are but armchair fighters at the best of times.

MMRCA, SEF, MRCA and MRFA has been ongoing for the past 25+ years. What you are assuming is an aggressive time frame, is actually years - if not a decade - of negotiations that have been going on between the Govts of India and France. No stakeholder in India woke up one morning and said lets go buy 114 Rafales without integration of Indian radars or weaponry or sensors. And lets spend $35 billion on it. That is not what happened.

The IAF's interest in the Rafale is actually preceded by the Indian Navy who were closely monitoring the development of the Rafale M. It is just that the turn of events (acquisition of 126 Mirage 2000s in the early 2000s morphed into the mother-of-all-fighter-aircraft deals). And in those turn of events, Dassault turned out to be the winner with the Rafale.

114 foreign fighter aircraft are coming. It will be horribly expensive and one can only hope that other programs do not suffer as a result of this purchase. But I am not going to hold my breath on that. And a separate acquisition of a 5th generation fighter aircraft will also happen. Hold on tight, because it is going to be a bumpy ride.

[Kanoji]

I-want-be-a-regional-or-global-superpower-but-will-spend-even-less-than-the-bare-minimum is now coming to bite us back in the ass.

Well said sir.

[uddu]

The French will say no to India's demands and India will gleefully oblige & still sign on the dotted line. While not going to really pan out that way, but if push comes to shove....what options does India exactly have?

The IAF operates US fighter aircraft. It is called Tejas. No F404/F414, no Tejas.

Russians will be back on negotiation table for the Su-57. I don't think this time, we will go to purchase both planes as suggested in the media. It's either this or that who offer the best deal as per our terms. No one else, is capable of offering such independent deals. It is indeed true that the Tejas is relying on U.S engines necessitating the need to negotiate with the French. The work on Kaveri is said to have started from last year and another news is of a much more powerful Kaveri in work. There is one more geopolitical reason, which could unravel in the years to come, even with these deal happening, hopefully prolonging such an issue or make it appear faster.

[Rakesh]

=
Russians will be back on negotiation table for the Su-57. I don't think this time, we will go to purchase both planes as suggested in the media. It's either this or that who offer the best deal as per our terms. No one else, is capable of offering such independent deals. It is indeed true that the Tejas is relying on U.S engines necessitating the need to negotiate with the French. The work on Kaveri is said to have started from last year and another news is of a much more powerful Kaveri in work. There is one more geopolitical reason, which could unravel in the years to come, even with these deal happening, hopefully prolonging such an issue or make it appear faster.

The Rafale as the 114 MRFA is almost a near certainty. Dassault has set up MRO facilities for both the engine and the aircraft. Then there is the airframe assembly by TASL. Just scroll through the past few pages of this very thread and you will see all the investments that Dassault has made in India due to the deal reaching near fruition. And Dassault will not make these investments without a firm commitment from the GOI on the purchase on 114 aircraft. Every OEM in the MRFA contest was absolutely firm on a minimum 100 aircraft order to transfer any assembly line to India. Thus I am finding it puzzling with the rona-dhona on Twitter from the Indian defence community.

With the recent visit of virtually anyone important in the UAE government to India, the Rafale has now become a centerpiece of India's foreign policy. This is no longer about just addressing the squadron shortage in the IAF. This has now become a prestige issue for the Govt of India and how it sees itself in the region and in the world. Please understand this post, you do not have to agree with it...but you must understand the dice that India has rolled on the geopolitical board game ---> viewtopic.php?p=2668846#p2668846

What was the latter half of Narendra Modi's Make in India vision that he first announced in May 2020? Make in India, But for the World! That was the slogan of Atmanirbhar Bharat. So welcome to *THAT* world, almost six years later! Now certainly there is a significant self reliance component for India in there, but there is an even greater inertia within the stakeholders in India against it. However India will overcome it, in due course. Not possible to turn the switch off to the Chandigarh Lobby overnight. It will turn out to an electoral disaster for the Govt and in a democracy, elections determine policies.

To now renege from this contract with Dassault would be a fairly BIG deal and in a negative way. There is a lot tied to the Rafale deal and is not just an agreement between Dassault and our MoD. Apart from the Rafale, the next big ticket item is Project 77, India's very own SSN program. The French are providing assistance on this, but much remains under wraps.

Today the international-rules-based-order system has been shattered (due to Trump's vision of a "fortress" Western Hemisphere) and India is one of the few nations that can provide stability to the rest of the world via exports. The Rafale line in India will serve not just the IAF, but other regional customers (UAE, Indonesia, etc) as well. The MRO facilities in India, will serve not just the Indian Air Force, but other regional customers. And Rafale in the IAF/IN will serve as a training hub not just for India, but for global Rafale operators. Expect France, Indonesia, UAE, etc to train regularly (i.e. annually) with the IAF/IN in the future. This was Lockheed Martin's marketing playbook for the F-16 (and later F-21) proposal for India. Do you remember the Single Engine thread on BRF?

And this is what I was telling stephen in my reply to him above. This is not something that just sprung out of the blue in the GOI. This has been years - if not a decade - in the making. Anyone important in the GOI has been making regular trips to France - over the years - on this issue. The only thing what has speeded up the process is Op Sindoor. Setting aside Pakistan's bluster (four Rafales shot down), the Rafale performed exceptionally well in Op Sindoor and reinforced Air HQ's belief that they made the right decision with the Rafale. Now that is not to suggest that everything is hunky dory with the Rafale fleet currently in service (i.e. Meteor) and the GOI's playbook (non-escalatory action), but overall the Rafale did perform very well.

With regards to the Su-57, there is also regional politics at play. Giving the Rafale assembly to an entity other than HAL, will give the opposition in India ammunition to hammer the Govt. And HAL is based in Karnataka which is currently ruled by the Congress Party. So the best way to solve that problem, would be to give HAL a line for Su-57 assembly and Super Sukhoi upgrade. This was always the plan of the GOI - two lines (one public i.e. HAL and one private player). TASL has the C-295 and will also get the MTA (Medium Transport Aircraft) contract. If everything pans out as planned, TASL has an exciting future and for the young readers who want to get into the world of aviation in India, check out TASL.

Now 100% this will affect our local programs (Tejas Mk2, AMCA, etc), but this is where we are at right now. It just that the sticker price is a shock to the aam junta, along with France's unwillingness to acquiesce to Indian requests. But these will get sorted out - in due course - between the two. But one thing is true - with India's military acquisitions...it is no longer a budget/monetary issue. It is an issue of priorities.

If you got $35 billion to spend on 114 Rafales, you certainly have money to fund flying test beds and other infrastructure required to test & validate a low bypass turbofan. We just do not want to. I really hope the below is not true, but knowing our babus and other stakeholders, anything is possible....

X-Post from the Tejas Mk1A thread...
viewtopic.php?p=2669451#p2669451

I recall seeing a news report recently that the MoD has canceled the plan to develop a 90KN Kaveri Derivative with the involvement of Godrej and L&T. The reason given was that, since the GE404 is such a proven, reliable engine, no point spending money on developing a replacement for it. I don't remember which news site it was on.
Anyone hear anything about this?
TIA

IF YOU SOLVE THE ENGINE, THEN EVERYTHING ELSE (AMCA, TEDBF, TEJAS Mk2, ORCA) WILL FALL INTO PLACE. GET THE TURBOFAN CERTIFIED.

[Rakesh]

IF YOU SOLVE THE ENGINE, THEN EVERYTHING ELSE (AMCA, TEDBF, TEJAS Mk2, ORCA) WILL FALL INTO PLACE. GET THE TURBOFAN CERTIFIED.

Imagine a max wet thrust of 120kN - at minimum - turbofan, powering AMCA, TEDBF and ORCA. One engine, multiple platforms.

The more we focus on the aircraft and not on the engine, India will continue to suffer as we are with the Tejas program. Change that focus to the engine and watch how rest of the pieces of the puzzle come together. You design an aircraft around an engine and not the other way around.

And these airframe assemblies must go to private players and not directly to HAL. The monopoly of HAL needs to end. If they want a contract, they need to earn it. No more hand-me-downs-with-zero-accountability bokwas. And do not worry about local customers i.e. IAF and IN, rather keep the focus on exports. The local customer will come around. Mark my word on that.

When the local customer sees what the private player is exporting, they will want a piece of that action.

[Rakesh]

I just tweeted this out, related to the discussion above.

If you are on X, please visit ---> https://x.com/BharatRakshak13/status/20 ... 12777?s=20

Twitter Thread Reader (all on one page) ---> https://twitter-thread.com/t/2014053925159112777

[drnayar]

China is happy too

The Chinese are not stupid to underestimate the Rafale. In fact they have been blocking Taiwan's purchase of Rafale as Eric Trappier recently alluded to. It's only Indians who have a fetish for blaming the IAF for wanting a jet whose capabilities they fully know and appreciate.

They have also tried to block sale of F16s and all sort of weapons as well