Cross-posting some posts from the 'TIRP' Thread
Rudradev
Rudradev wrote:shiv wrote:
CONGRATULATIONS RUDRADEV! My compliments to you. This is EXACTLY what you said with too may people arguing against you. The Paki intel agencies can help the west keep a tab on their own agents in the west like the New York bomber. That is what Lieven says hereThe help of the Pakistani intelligence services to Britain has been vital in identifying the links of these potential terrorists to groups in Pakistan, and to preventing more attacks on the UK and elsewhere in Europe. Islamabad therefore has been only a partial ally in the “war on terror”—but still a critical and irreplaceable one. For we need to remember that in the end, it is only legitimate Muslim governments and security services that can control terrorist plots on their soil. Western pressure may be necessary to push them in the right direction, but we need to be careful that this pressure does not become so overwhelming that it undermines or even destroys those governments by humiliating them in the eyes of their own people.shiv wrote:And Lieven urges the US to give into blackmail, saying what the US ain't seen nuthin yetThis should serve as a stark reminder of just how much more Pakistan could do to help the Afghan Taliban (and other anti-Western groups) if the Pakistani state and military, or the relationship between Islamabad and Washington, were to completely fall apart. It is this terrifying outcome that present U.S. strategy in the region risks producing.Thank you Shiv. I had no doubt whatsoever that I'm right about this Any thoughtfully considered review of the so-called "near-miss" terrorist attacks in the US since 9/11, year after year, leads to the same inescapable conclusion.shiv wrote:Vinasha kaale vipareetha buddhi
The mighty whitey US wets its starry-stripey pants whenever it thinks what might happen on its own soil, if it didn't continue to give the Pakis more and more baksheesh. That is the leash on which the ISI has managed to keep the US, through its repeatedly successful indoctrination, infiltration and facilitation of terrorists into American cities, followed by dramatic tip-offs issued to the Dept of Homeland Security, just in time to "thwart" an attack.
As long as the ISI keeps up this successful calibrated demonstration of its capacity to hurt the US, the US already knows what it needs to do to stay safe... it does not need Lievens to spell out the demand in so many words
RajeshA
venugRajeshA wrote:If one wants to make Pakistan a problem for the whole world then the way to do it is to pay the Afghans to destroy the ISI.
Thinking in Rudradev ji's model!
RajeshAvenug wrote:Rajesh ji, pl. don't forget the Baluchis, they want their pound of flesh too, we should rope them in.
RudradevRajeshA wrote:venug ji,
according to Rudradev ji, ISI is responsible both for increasing the jihadi danger to the USA as well as in giving concrete intelligence on any operations planned by jihadis, thus proving its usefulness to USA. If ISI is out of the loop, the threat to USA from AfPak trained Jihadis become REAL, as nobody then has control over the Jihadis. Then USA would have to take care of Pakistan directly.
RajeshARudradev wrote:Excellent point Rajesh A ji. In fact, there is proof of concept to show that things WOULD in fact work exactly as you predict.RajeshA wrote:venug ji,
according to Rudradev ji, ISI is responsible both for increasing the jihadi danger to the USA as well as in giving concrete intelligence on any operations planned by jihadis, thus proving its usefulness to USA. If ISI is out of the loop, the threat to USA from AfPak trained Jihadis become REAL, as nobody then has control over the Jihadis. Then USA would have to take care of Pakistan directly.
The proof lies in the case of Abdulmuttalab, the Underwear Bomber. His attempt to blow up a Northwest Airlines aircraft in Detroit stands completely unique from most cases of jihadi terrorism attempted against the US homeland since 9/11, for an important reason: no direct connection to ISI. He was a Nigerian recruited by AQAP in Yemen, and indoctrinated/trained by an Al Qaeda cleric of American birth, Anwar Al-Awlaki.
So in contrast to the dozens of Pakis and Bangladeshis who have formed the bulk of terror "threats" against the US homeland since 9/11... which were in fact calibrated demonstrations of ISI capability, never intended to succeed... Abdulmuttalab represented a REAL threat such as you describe above.
What was the outcome? The US ordered a drone strike and, ignoring the whines of human rights types who argued that Al-Awlaki was a US citizen and deserved "due process"... they directly, personally gave Al-Awlaki his 72. Khatam! No dancing around with pots of financial and military aid, no major non-NATO ally, nothing. They knew that Al-Awlaki wasn't shadowboxing with calibrated demonstrations of capability designed to blackmail Washington for aid. They knew that he really meant to hurt the US if he could, and they took him out.
That may well be what would happen if the ISI, as you suggest, got removed from the equation. The US would begin to perceive the Paki jihadis as a genuine, immediate, lethal threat rather than a shadow-boxer's puppets. And probably take appropriate action, on a far larger scale than Al-Awlaki.
Shiv has been right all along! Total, unmitigated jihadi takeover of the Bakistani state is what is needed.
ramanaRajeshA wrote:Rudradev ji,
Exploring your model further ...
for a long time on BRF we were accustomed to looking for ideological differences within the TSPA. We used to differentiate them as the bearded-type and the whiskey-swirling type faujis.
As far as hate towards India is concerned, we felt, both are one and the same. But still there was this American prism which was difficult to escape, that there is indeed a difference between the two.
It seems more and more likely that the differences are not ideological but rather transactional.
1) "Bearded-Type Faujis" - do not have active dealings with USA.
2) "Whiskey-Swirling Faujis" - have an active intelligence cooperation with USA
The beards and the whiskey are basically simply for show for their US intelligence partners and needed to calibrate American ease and discomfiture. The beards in TSPA are intended to increase anxiety among the Americans, the whiskey is there to remove that anxiety.
The convincing creation and removal of anxiety of the Americans and the West and now China too is the whole business model of TSPA. TSPA would not tolerate a structural change in this capability including from America.
What ISI-branch of TSPA does is control all the resources and networks required for making good on the threat - the middlemen, the handlers, the bomb material, the tanzeem heads, the mullahs, etc. Many in the Gulf, UK and elsewhere are part of the ISI network.
So if any true believer decides to become terrorist, he is guided the whole way by ISI and its global network, and in the end often delivered into the arms of the FBI or CIA.
The whole Command & Control of this global ISI network is in Pindi and perhaps to some extent in UK/Dubai. If that were to break, the whole network unravels and becomes truly cellular and amorphous. When that happens the threat increases to the West as the chances of intelligence failure also increases especially with a whole ocean of radicalized Islamic youth. The West thinks it can continue to enjoy control over them through their friends in Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Jordan and Pakistan.
I think the other thing that the West is afraid of is China taking over patronage over this Islamic alliance. Chinese footprint in the Gulf and Pakistan has increased a lot.
Of course to some extent USA is mired in their vested interests in the Middle-East. But it is also now becoming a susceptible to Islamic terrorist threat with many Muslims now spread out throughout the West, especially in Britain, so one can presume that some policies of the West, e.g. in Syria, in Iran could be a direct consequence of this blackmail.
Since Saudi Arabia provides the ideology and the money and the ISI provides the manpower and logistics, Saudis are not willing to break off their cooperation with Pakistan either. It allows the Sauds to be a big part of this blackmail of the West and thus to profit from it besides having other means of persuasion, e.g. money, investments.
What we really need to do is to provide a parallel logistics network for the Jihadis so that they can bring down the ISI CnC.
I think one reason USA was uneasy with Indian presence in Afghanistan was exactly for this reason. If we were to develop our own relations and equations with the Afghan Pushtuns, they would know how to influence the Taliban within Pakistan itself, and we could have eroded the whole ISI CnC through the "Bad Taliban". That is also one reason why the Americans were not only targeting the "Good Taliban" in AfPak but also the "Bad Taliban", even though "Bad Taliban" were not fighting US forces in Afghanistan at all, for that is in the interests of both ISI and Americans. Americans now cannot afford to have the ISI lose control over the Islamists, and the "Bad Taliban" could crack this control.
The whole Kerry-Lougar-Hermann Bill is Jizya for protection against Islamic attacks.
The funny part is that USA cannot really do anything against this monster. If they crush the head - the ISI, then the body would fall apart into milions of snakes, all with their independent heads. If they crush the body, the head would continue producing more and in fact helping Americans kill little parts of it. All the while the snake expands!
India really loses nothing by crushing the head. It is a game India would have to play alone, because everybody is on the other side, either as the threat or as the compromised.
RajeshAramana wrote:A picture is worth a thousand words etc. etc....
Updated cartoon:ramana wrote:Thanks to Shiv!
Looks like US cartoonists have caught on!!!Prem wrote:
PranavRajeshA wrote:ramana garu,
An interesting dynamic is that Americans are willing to feed the Sapera and let him breed more snakes, rather than crush him and have to face the snakes without Sapera's help, despite knowing about Sapera's duplicity in this game!
The cartoon is I believe wrong in that it presupposes that Americans are not aware of TSPA's treachery. It is just that Americans would rather pay jizya than go after the Islamics!
It is true that Americans use Pakis for their strategic objectives, but parallel to this also runs the constant blackmail.
Pranav wrote:The 3 most important aspects of the Underwear bomber case are -Rudradev wrote: The proof lies in the case of Abdulmuttalab, the Underwear Bomber. His attempt to blow up a Northwest Airlines aircraft in Detroit stands completely unique from most cases of jihadi terrorism attempted against the US homeland since 9/11, for an important reason: no direct connection to ISI.
(1) The "well-dressed" man who pulled strings to put Abdulmuttalab onto the plane in Amsterdam, even without a passport. This man is probably a bigger fish than Abdulmuttalab himself
(2) The way in which this man was subsequently totally ignored by the US mainstream media, so much so that most folks are quite ignorant of him.
(3) The Headley-like manner in which US agencies had been given multiple warnings about Abdulmuttalab, long before the bombing incident.
See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Umar_Farouk_Abdulmutallab